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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#111

Post by Waterluvian »

Animats wrote: post #94

Whatever happened to Musk's plan for data centers in orbit? That seemed silly at the time. It offers a way to get out from under restrictions imposed by national governments, which might make it worthwhile.

I think space being imagined as some magical international waters that protects something from government powers is poisonous thinking.

It just means it’s protected by no power instead of a power with an agenda.

Practically, if it was ever possible to build such a thing, it would take a fraction of the effort to destroy it.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#113

Post by metalcrow »

fc417fc802 wrote: post #96
metalcrow wrote: post #92

A lot of people in this comments section seem to be against this, i genuinely don't get it? Why? Do you think the current state of affairs is GOOD? That if we let companies create a mind that is, AS OF TODAY, able to solve problems no human in history has solved, with no regulation, things will end up good for us? We need some sort of regulations, some sort of method to help ensure the thing we are creating ends up g…

What's the expected state space of effective regulation though? Note that we've got passable coding models down to ~30B parameters by now. And keep in mind the ultimate floor here - the human brain only consumes on the order of 20 watts and fits in a handbag. Is there any possible solution other than mass proliferation where the models are used to keep one another in check? Either that or a religious prohibition agai…

The regulations don't have to address the end goal, but the process of development itself. Even just a pause on frontier research is a good start

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#114

Post by nradov »

bpodgursky wrote: post #86
nradov wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China might pretend to coordinate in public but you can assume their secret research labs are racing full speed ahead.

While it's an extremely hard problem, it's not completely unsolvable because there are a finite number of GPUs on the planet capable of doing frontier model development, and they use a lot of power. The vast majority of them could be tracked. China and the US could agree to joint monitoring and they could each verify what ~95% of the other's compute power was up to. A lab of researchers without compute isn't going to…

What a naive, ignorant comment. China is catching up fast on GPU fabrication. They're still a generation or two behind but they can just throw more hardware and electricity at the problem. This is not something that we could ever monitor effectively in a fascist state like China.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#115

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

I don't understand where everyone insists on hallucinating this idea from, that frontier AI labs want everyone else but not themselves to slow down. They've never said that, they've never said anything like that, not once has anyone pointed me to a quote that could be even plausibly interpreted that way.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#117

Post by dorolow »

konmok wrote: post #72
nullbio wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The models have not plateaued, and they are not even mildly close to any sort of ceiling. Right now the barrier is data and compute. Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve. Humans are actively feeding them with private IP. Compute advancements will begin to skyrocket as we unlock photonic computing and materials science advancements and scale up chip fabs. This is also comp…

> Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve No it can't? Every time the labs try this we see model collapse, e.g. shoving goblins into every conversation. And I have seen zero evidence that AI is accelerating materials science in any meaningful way, let alone photonic computing.

We use large amounts of synthetic data for training at work and have not observed any sort of model collapse when done properly.

Edit: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.01413 https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.07515

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#118

Post by nullbio »

ranger_danger wrote: post #101
nullbio wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The models have not plateaued, and they are not even mildly close to any sort of ceiling. Right now the barrier is data and compute. Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve. Humans are actively feeding them with private IP. Compute advancements will begin to skyrocket as we unlock photonic computing and materials science advancements and scale up chip fabs. This is also comp…

Can you provide sources for these claims?

What claim do you have a problem with?

There are plenty of research papers on synthetic data that show its value, do a search on arxiv for "synthetic data". There are plenty of open-source post-training pipelines that incorporate synthetic data.

As for the claim about accelerating the progress of hardware or materials science, I've seen quite a number of news articles from teams at universities using AI in their work with high quality outcomes, and they're becoming more frequent.

https://openai.com/index/jalapeno-first-results/

> We used AI to design the chip, and designed the chip so AI could program it AI played a direct role in Jalapeño’s development, enabling the team to move from initial design to tapeout in nine months by exploring implementations, shortening design, measurement, and verification loops, and continuously iterating on model workloads. AI also helped optimize the chip’s arithmetic circuits, allowing the team to fit more compute performance into the chip on schedule.

https://www.anl.gov/article/scientists-deploy-ai-agents-to-a...

> An AI-driven system automates a powerful simulation method used to discover new materials. The system can potentially reduce discovery time from months or years to just days.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#119

Post by fimmwolf569 »

AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

Yep, the cost of DDR5 skyrocketed to keep Mr & Mrs open source from parallel developing their own at home solution. Because Governments can't be priced out of the market. China can't be priced out. VC's want open source locked out of the running if possible. I also don't doubt that the models that are released publicly are somewhat handicapped versions of whatever the government get access to.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#120

Post by metalcrow »

dd8601fn wrote: post #110
metalcrow wrote: post #92

A lot of people in this comments section seem to be against this, i genuinely don't get it? Why? Do you think the current state of affairs is GOOD? That if we let companies create a mind that is, AS OF TODAY, able to solve problems no human in history has solved, with no regulation, things will end up good for us? We need some sort of regulations, some sort of method to help ensure the thing we are creating ends up g…

I, for one, trust neither the psychopaths running these companies or the psychopaths we'd give any regulatory authority to. All of them have reasons to want broad control of an extraordinary technology, and none of those are aligned with me or any of the normal people I know. So there are no good options (that I'm aware of) and starting to chisel any of them into stone seems... kinda scary. Like a massive power grab…

Honestly, fair point. There's not much truth to go around these days. But still, doing nothing is also a massive power grab. We're facing a technology with no comparison in the history of humanity: the creation of a new mind. Doing nothing is like doing nothing about nukes. There are a few smart people who have come up with ideas that will not require that much trust.
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