Earlier quoted context omitted.
I figured they're just admitting AI models have plateaued and are coming up with some fake story about self restraint so they don't lose VC money
The models have not plateaued, and they are not even mildly close to any sort of ceiling. Right now the barrier is data and compute. Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve. Humans are actively feeding them with private IP. Compute advancements will begin to skyrocket as we unlock photonic computing and materials science advancements and scale up chip fabs. This is also comp…
Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
101–110 of 210 posts
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
If Fable doesn't add additional value in your workplace, it means you aren't being ambitious enough in how you integrate agents into your workstream. Yes, it's probably comparable to 4.8 if you are just using it to write code and put up a couple pull requests. That's not where things are now.
This is just "you're holding it wrong" with a little smooch of condescension. If only we plebeians could comprehend what magnificent works those who have ambitiously integrated agents into the workstream have wrought!
Just download claude code or codex and ask it to give suggestions about where to integrate agents into your workstream.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#103I have to wonder if some us are just much more inured to salespeople and thus also to "AI Safety" propaganda. I've yet to have a logical discussion with anyone who thinks the "AI Safety" people should be in charge and I think they just truly don't that what most them actually want is to be the one holding the keys to power.
The problem is the "AI Safety" people seem entirely focused on a sci-fi "the computer is a vengeful god" plot and not at all on the AI talking people into suicide or ruining children's educations. This makes them seem unserious and out of touch.
Instead, they are focused on stuff like "can I ask the AI to help me build a nuclear bomb" or "is the AI willing to generate pornographic stories", which is neither trying to protect us from unleashing a vengeful god NOR preventing (in any honest way) the today-level problems you (very correctly) bring up.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#104They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
The models have not plateaued, and they are not even mildly close to any sort of ceiling. Right now the barrier is data and compute. Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve. Humans are actively feeding them with private IP. Compute advancements will begin to skyrocket as we unlock photonic computing and materials science advancements and scale up chip fabs. This is also comp…
> Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve No it can't? Every time the labs try this we see model collapse, e.g. shoving goblins into every conversation. And I have seen zero evidence that AI is accelerating materials science in any meaningful way, let alone photonic computing.
The latest studies demonstrate model collapse is not a given and synthetic data can be used just fine. The latest models are proof of that, they're all trained on large swathes of synthetic data. It can't be used as the -only- data source of course, but that's not how it is being used. This is an obvious conclusion, too, because there's no difference between synthetic data and the data people can create, the difference is whether that data is revealing new information about the thing the model is trying to learn. If the synthetic data is just teaching the model the same thing over and over again it results in overfitting, so it needs to be done intelligently.
For example, if I have an example of a puzzle, I can generalize that example and create thousands of synthetic data examples, with different rotations/perspectives, rather than having to find the data naturally. It's not that the models are just generating data out of thin air, they're generating the synthetic data on top of real world data. The smarter the models get, the better they are at generating quality synthetic variations and finding valid synthetic variations.
> And I have seen zero evidence that AI is accelerating materials science in any meaningful way, let alone photonic computing.
It is accelerating how quickly researchers and engineers can do their jobs.
https://news.mit.edu/2026/ai-helps-design-new-materials-that...
This is only the beginning, too... Look ahead a year or two.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
OK understood. But you understand this makes them sound like the type of person who doesn't believe any of the "worldly concerns" are worth addressing because "the end is near" right?
Maybe compare the argument that AI has large detrimental environmental impacts to the argument that it has economic impacts. Why would the environmental impacts even be a major argument vs. the worldly economic concerns? Because there is climate science predicting extremely negative effects on humans from warming, e.g. "the end is near" on limiting climate damage. The environmental argument wouldn't have been reasona…
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
I figured they're just admitting AI models have plateaued and are coming up with some fake story about self restraint so they don't lose VC money
Not sure about the level of irony here, but I keep hearing models have plateaued since a while now, but I keep being impressed with the latest model performance.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure about the level of irony here, but I keep hearing models have plateaued since a while now, but I keep being impressed with the latest model performance.
I don't think "plateaued" is the right word, but I do feel like there's been something like a logistic curve compression in the difference between smaller and larger models as the field evolves. For inference at least, the scale of practical difference between a single high-VRAM GPU or SFF UMA box, a whole rack, and a whole data center seems to be falling far short of what we might have imagined just a few years ago.…
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure about the level of irony here, but I keep hearing models have plateaued since a while now, but I keep being impressed with the latest model performance.
They've not plataued but they're certainly not as impressive as the hype would have them to be. The reality is, it doesnt matter if LLMs keep getting more powerful because they still need a human to steer it. Without the human providing inputs to the LLM it just sits there and does nothing.
You can, for example, hook it up to a logging system and have it fix errors as they occur on your platform.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#110A lot of people in this comments section seem to be against this, i genuinely don't get it? Why? Do you think the current state of affairs is GOOD? That if we let companies create a mind that is, AS OF TODAY, able to solve problems no human in history has solved, with no regulation, things will end up good for us? We need some sort of regulations, some sort of method to help ensure the thing we are creating ends up g…
So there are no good options (that I'm aware of) and starting to chisel any of them into stone seems... kinda scary. Like a massive power grab event where all the potential winners are awful.