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Nvidia is the central bank of AI

economist.com

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Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#231

Post by fc417fc802 »

kennywinker wrote: post #156
SleightOfHand wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not considering video which OpenAI opted out of when they retired Sora. Generative video requires significantly more computing power and energy than generative text. OpenAI is fucked, compute is still needed, it's just them that isn't.

OpenAI dropped sora because it was costing them ridiculous amounts of money and earning them very little. They determined that the market can't support the cost of generating video. Without a material change in the market (more buyers, vastly cheaper generation), it's unlikely a different company could make that work. More buyers isn't likely to happen, so that leaves vastly cheaper generation - something that would…

> the market can't support the cost of generating video.

I'd suggest that's only the case given the current quality of output. Media is incredibly expensive to produce. A model capable of sufficiently high quality could charge prices that are absurd by today's standards.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#232

Post by pvab3 »

kennywinker wrote: post #137
spott wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, but they would have to become insolvent in a way that makes compute lose value. The reason Nvidia is comfortable making these deals is because if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can. Granted OpenAI going insolvent likely means a drop in the value of compute…

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

I've been thinking about that and that's why Nvidia's prices are surprising to me. Investors should know that better than me so there must be something I don't know

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#233

Post by criddell »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #123
hammock wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

M2 is $21 trillion, which is what the fed signed up to backstop. How much did NVDA sign up to backstop?

> which is what the fed signed up to backstop No, it's not. M2 includes things like traveler's cheques and money-market funds.

Traveler’s cheques? Who even sells them anymore. American Express was the biggest issuer and they stopped years ago.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#234

Post by andsoitis »

InsideOutSanta wrote: post #226
andsoitis wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> investor money But that’s the point. Investors believe investment in AI will pay off.

Right, "believe".

That's how all investment works. That's how money works. You believe some story. Not everyone believes the same story.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#235

Post by InsideOutSanta »

andsoitis wrote: post #234
InsideOutSanta wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, "believe".

That's how all investment works. That's how money works. You believe some story. Not everyone believes the same story.

Believing only makes things true for so long until things fall apart. You can't keep burning billions every quarter. At some point, you run out of investors who believe, and the ones you have run out of money (see: Softbank).

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#236

Post by wredcoll »

paulpauper wrote: post #139
jrmg wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its stock could crash without causing–as long as its cash flows continue–a credit crisis through its investments and commitments Uh, that’s a pretty load-bearing as long as its cash flows continue . The two things are surely correlated.

"Uh, that’s a pretty load-bearing as long as its cash flows continue. The two things are surely correlated." Ppl have made the prediction of it being a bubble or unsustainable since 2022. At this point, it's hard to say these people have credibility anymore. Ai is big enough, much like Google in 2005 or Facebook/Social Network in 2010 or apps in 2015, that it's an institution unto itself. It's not going to just crash…

People claimed bernie madoff was running a pyramid scheme scam for like 20 years, boy did they look dumb!

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#237

Post by andsoitis »

InsideOutSanta wrote: post #235
andsoitis wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how all investment works. That's how money works. You believe some story. Not everyone believes the same story.

Believing only makes things true for so long until things fall apart. You can't keep burning billions every quarter. At some point, you run out of investors who believe, and the ones you have run out of money (see: Softbank).

Yes of course. Is the point you're actually trying to make that investors are making a pure call, so their belief in the story is misplaced? That they should believe a different story?

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#238

Post by phoghed »

lelanthran wrote: post #204
vunderba wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model... It’s not quite as simple as that. Several studies have shown the opposite: models trained on more diverse knowledge tend to cross-pollinate across domains. So a more generalized model can actually perform better than a specialized one. That’s why you’re not seeing tons of tiny m…

Problem is conflict of interest: the studies are mostly from the providers of the biggest models, or someone who received free tokens to do the research.

It would be nice to hear exactly how the conflict of interest has impacted the specific studies and how they are wrong rather than conspiracy theory level speculation and hand waving at the entire category

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#239

Post by phoghed »

InsideOutSanta wrote: post #212
indigodaddy wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

oAI isn't anywhere near close to fucked as long as their models are head and shoulders above even the very best open models in terms of tool calling and rock solid stability/reliability for agents/coding harnesses. Which, they are right now and we'll see if open models actually catch up in that regard. Even the "best" open models pale in comparison with tool calling and general "prompt and go do something else for an…

>oAI isn't anywhere near close to fucked as long as their models are head and shoulders above even the very best open models in terms of tool calling and rock solid stability/reliability for agents/coding harnesses That's already not the case today. If you sat me in front of an LLM and told me to figure out if I'm working with K3 or Astra, I could probably do it, but it would take some work to be certain.

All we do with these things is some work though

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#240

Post by wredcoll »

fragmede wrote: post #197
noir_lord wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD would step in, they where behind nvidia but they've been closing that gap for a while and the 9070XT is the current value king (in this fucked up market) for mid-high gaming and you can actually buy them. Demand for Nvidia cards has outstripped supply even on the mid-high cards specifically because they do better with local models than AMD cards with the same VRAM do broadly. AI has completely broken the PC gamin…

Cryptocurrency mining had it broken before that. PC gaming's golden years are behind us, as AI, even if not LLMs, seems like it's not going away, so the gaming market is now the niche hobby while AI takes center stage. RIP. My first gaming ~GPU~ (we called them 3d accelerators back then) was a Diamond Monster II with a 3dfx Voodoo 2 chip.

I'm not sure (pc) gaming could ever really actually pay for the continued advancement and mass production of state of the art silicon.

The prices of gpus are nuts right now due to demand, but theoretically speaking demand causes more supply to appear and thus decrease prices* and then gamers can reap the benefits of massive amounts of investment.

* or at least thats what people on this site keep telling me.

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