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We must pace the frontier

darioamodei.com

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Re: We must pace the frontier

#501

Post by adsharma »

So many words. But missing the one that matters the most: Explainability.

AI slowdown is worth it only if it can be made more explainable.

Changing the language we use to discuss it is a good first step.

We need to stop using inside baseball terms like alignment and mechanistic interpretability. Replace them with explainable tech. Graph Databases, Causality, Shared semantic spaces.

Previous writings on the topic (also on LinkedIn, but can't find urls):

https://x.com/arundsharma/status/2005338775468282339 https://x.com/latentpedia

Re: We must pace the frontier

#502

Post by baobabKoodaa »

dismalaf wrote: post #409

This is corporate speak for "LLMs have hit a wall". I mean, it's been obvious for a bit, lately nearly all gains have been from harnesses (or whatever you want to call all the non-LLM bits that make up a chatbot or agent). If Anthropic and OpenAI were still seeing exponential or even linear gains from scaling they'd be doing it because the rewards to reaching AGI or SGI before everyone else are basically infinite. If…

You people just never stop, do you? At some point you're gonna have to look back at all the times you said "LLMs have hit a wall" and look at what the progress was since the last time you said that. Please do go ahead and revisit your comment here 1 year later. Embarrassing.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#504

Post by 8note »

nunez wrote: post #166
spidersouris wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more I read about everything that has been written regarding AI regulation since the OAI/HF incident, and the more it reminds me of the nuclear arms race (although the potential consequences would possibly be very different). Surely, we managed to negotiate a Non-Proliferation Treaty with most of the countries of the globe. Cannot we take inspiration from that for AI?

The big difference between nukes and AI is that only a handful of people in an even smaller handful of countries know how to make them, so coordination is easier to acheive. Everyone of any level of intelligence can run a frontier-class model if they have the GPUs. It's like trying to coordinate swarms of mosquitos.

nukes arent actually hard to make, its just takes a lot of pretty visible tech a long time to do, so its quote obvious whats happening.

the bigger difference IMO is that frontier models are economically useful, where nukes are basically dumping money into something that doesnt change much in your bargaining power

Re: We must pace the frontier

#505

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

Aurornis wrote: post #442
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Limit what AI corporations can use? Other countries would love that more than anything. Basically a free gift to any competitors or any startup that quietly avoids the rules. Sure - look at what is being done today with H1B visas and tariffs. What is more important to you - having a job and a functioning economy/society, or upholding some "free market" doctrine you've bought into? Just as with H1B visas, you restri…

> Sure - look at what is being done today with H1B visas and tariffs. I have some bad news for you if you bought into the idea that the tariffs were good for domestic jobs and the economy. > What is more important to you - having a job and a functioning economy/society, or upholding some "free market" doctrine you've bought into? This is the definition of a false dichotomy, and you also ignored (or missed) the point…

Do you think outsourcing and offshoring of jobs, whether manufacturing or software development, has been a positive for the US economy?

Does it make sense to you for US companies to be sending wages overseas, supporting a foreign family and economy, when there is someone here in the US, unemployed and equally capable of doing the job?

Trump has certainly been ham-fisted about tariffs, but in a world without tariffs then the country with lowest cost of production, closely related to lowest cost of living, and lowest wages, wins, and this is not going to be the US in most cases. If you follow that path then a high cost country like the US will end up utterly reliant on other countries as it imports almost everything, and loses all domestic manufacturing capability. Sounds familiar?

Re: We must pace the frontier

#506

Post by 8note »

mofeien wrote: post #83
TheSisb2 wrote: post #38

I know the common take online is that this is Anthropic doing pre-IPO marketing. I don’t think it is. I think Dario is genuinely afraid of the inevitability of AI turning into internet slime mold: consuming the environment, turning it into its own playground, and eventually manipulating human culture along with it. So am I. That said, if slowing this down were possible, I think it would have happened by now. Maybe he…

One way to resolve these prisoner dilemmas and races to the bottom is through laws that bind all players, in this case an international treaty and founding of something akin to an International Nuclear Energy Agency for AI. It's not going to be easy, but humans have achieved greater things before. One idea from AI 2040 is to have China and the US build their data centers on the other's territory, respectively. Togeth…

theres no benefit to china to giving the US keys over anything though

everyone's getting away from the US because americans are unreliable stewards of anything.

what gets china onboard when they already have their own regulations and can enforce them?

its the americans that consider their oligarchs and companies beyond reproach. china iant gonna solve your problem

Re: We must pace the frontier

#507

Post by dale_glass »

xg15 wrote: post #444
esafak wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This makes no sense. The hardware is only going to get cheaper. In a decade, everybody could be running an ASI on their phones. What we need to do is to make unaligned AIs illegal and monitor for them, like we do with nuclear weapons. And make aligned AI strong enough to counter it, for deterrence and defense.

> The hardware is only going to get cheaper. Is that so? Last time I checked, RAM was getting a lot more expensive...

Eventually data centers will get sated for one reason or another, or production capacity will increase, or manufacturing will shift toward higher capacities. Or some combination of those.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#508

Post by 8note »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #211
Matl wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For example he got into a spat with the Department of War as if he cared for how his AI could be used during war and yet said he's fine with Claude targeting a girl's school in Iran. That's apart from the general fact that he continues to race towards the very thing he claims he's afraid of, because that's where his net worth comes from.

>said he's fine with Claude targeting a girl's school in Iran Where?

i dont think he said it in those words, but the acceptable terms of use is that humans stay in the loop for picking targets.

so, claude suggesting killing a bunch of children, and then hegsdeth approving the strikes is perfectly acceptable.

claude putting a bomb in a girls school, and then lying to an operator that it actually gives ice cream an cookies, and the operator clicka the button would also be acceptable?

Re: We must pace the frontier

#509

Post by fwn »

twoodfin wrote: post #483
fwn wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we focus too much on the world domination fiction, we really might, in a moment of lapsed attention, end up plugging essential infrastructure into the public internet, hoping some dream of global alignment might save us. That's like giving a gun to a monkey and hoping the monkey is trained well. ..a frontier monkey though.

You believe essential infrastructure is air-gapped from the public internet today?

No. And no alignment, guardrails or slowdowns will ever secure our insecure infrastructure. Bad infrastructure decisions are a risk independent from AI.

The only way to secure infrastructure is to actually do the work needed to secure it. Our waste water treatment facility might not actually need to be able to tweet its status.

Cybersecurity is such an important topic for a country, dreaming about global alignment just to avoid fixing insecure infrastructure cannot be serious.

A Russian state backed hacker will not ask Dario for permission or argue with his LLM about ethics. That train departed long ago.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#510

Post by pphysch »

TheSisb2 wrote: post #301
pphysch wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the CEO of a company with an upcoming IPO publicly saying "my product is potent and valuable". We should not put any spin on it. There is nothing more to it.

It is potent and it clearly is immensely valuable based on their historic growth. What spin is he putting?

The comment I am responding to is attempting to spin it as some kind of authentic concern rather than more IPO hype building.
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