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We must pace the frontier

darioamodei.com

381–390 of 935 posts

Re: We must pace the frontier

#381
post #349

To be honest, I think we're incredibly lucky to be advancing AI this far already, while the world still has so many non-digitized systems and manual processes. I imagine that in e.g. 50 years, the world will be so connected that it can basically be "conquered" from the internet. I'd much rather have AI burst onto the scene we have today.

Yes. Let the AI do its worst today and we might still be able to stop it and will learn a valuable lesson.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#382

I also like the idea of pacing the frontier and slowing down development so we all have a chance to stop and catch our breath. However, I don't think regulating AI is the way to do it. I would tackle the problem by constraining the resources used to run AI models; the "simplest" way to do that is increasing the costs of running a data center. The two easiest places to raise data center costs are electricity and water…

This makes no sense. The hardware is only going to get cheaper. In a decade, everybody could be running an ASI on their phones.

What we need to do is to make unaligned AIs illegal and monitor for them, like we do with nuclear weapons. And make aligned AI strong enough to counter it, for deterrence and defense.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#384
post #227

Can the frontier be paced partly by holding humans responsible for the actions of their software? My impression is that AI hacking is being treated as a special case where the AI itself is imagined to be responsible and the humans who created it, set it up and then ran it are somehow excused. I'm not a lawyer but surely the bad actions of AI are covered by existing law. I suspect that the development of AI would dece…

Bingo. What we're seeing is all their early bullshitting and waffling about intelligence back when the models couldn't count the r's in strawberry paying off.

They've managed to dupe the dull eyed masses into thinking these products have some kind of agency of their own and can thus bypass the responsibility that should be falling on them to control their software. Amid all the marketing fluff and hype people seem to forget easily that ultimately these things are stateless functions running in a data center. We ought to be demanding these companies take culpability for their actions. Of course, the current political environment doesn't help.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#385

Dario's proposed approach is a classic example of capital attempting to control technological advancement and the means of production. For the first time in human history, any member of the working class can just about afford to have a team of expert scientist/physician/lawyer/engineers working directly for them. Super intelligence (the ability to have many smarter minds than your own reporting to you) has always bee…

This seems highly optimistic to me. What's to say current AI won't be highly power-concentrating by default? The best models are owned by a few companies, and displacement of knowledge-workers mainly seems to benefit the capital class. On-device / edge computing makes sense in a few very limited scenarios. And economically, price or watt/token (or watt/task completed) might always be better in large data centers. No…

> The best models are owned by a few companies

Whenever I see 'best model,' 'most advanced model,' etc, it just reads to me as 'roundest ball'. The new model is the most precisely round ball ever, models next year are going to be even rounder, etc.

The difference in utility between the latest, most round ball and last year's frontier balls (which are now freely available to the public) is pretty debatable, imo.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The best models are owned by a few companies In terms of cost per task, the open weight Chinese models are winning by a long shot. So it depends on what you mean by the best model.

Don't you think open weight Chinese models will be the first thing they start banning once the regulation of this industry starts to kick in?

Yes, but if you read up two messages in this thread they’re discussing whether AI is power concentrating by default. If you concentrate power through regulation, that’s not “by default”. That’s just corruption in government resulting in a concentration of power.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#388
post #382

I also like the idea of pacing the frontier and slowing down development so we all have a chance to stop and catch our breath. However, I don't think regulating AI is the way to do it. I would tackle the problem by constraining the resources used to run AI models; the "simplest" way to do that is increasing the costs of running a data center. The two easiest places to raise data center costs are electricity and water…

This makes no sense. The hardware is only going to get cheaper. In a decade, everybody could be running an ASI on their phones. What we need to do is to make unaligned AIs illegal and monitor for them, like we do with nuclear weapons. And make aligned AI strong enough to counter it, for deterrence and defense.

Yes, and we need to make microprocessors that do good work, not hack others. /s

Re: We must pace the frontier

#389

Before Anthropic, I worked at Cruise for four years as it competed against Waymo. The culture rewarded (and demanded) moving quickly, trusting that the company could empirically discover the risks that the robot cars posed and iteratively solve them to keep up with the rate at which it was scaling out its technology. There was very little interest or appetite for coordinating or collaborating with other AV companies…

why don't you unionize with the other employees that feel this way across the mayor labs and pace the companies through labor power?

Re: We must pace the frontier

#390

Dario's proposed approach is a classic example of capital attempting to control technological advancement and the means of production. For the first time in human history, any member of the working class can just about afford to have a team of expert scientist/physician/lawyer/engineers working directly for them. Super intelligence (the ability to have many smarter minds than your own reporting to you) has always bee…

> Super intelligence (the ability to have many smarter minds than your own reporting to you) has always been available to the wealthy and powerful This is not what superintelligence is. Don't be like Meta and redefine existing terms for marketing purposes.

This is important to realise and defend. Super intelligence is not a collection of human-level intellect smarter than you. Super intelligence is an intellect surpassing any human. That's a important distinction for AI alignment discussion now and in the future. The books 'Superintelligence' (978-0199678112) and 'The Coming Wave' (978-1529923834) are worth reading.
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