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Nvidia is the central bank of AI

economist.com

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Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#71

Post by Espressosaurus »

Waterluvian wrote: post #43
delusional wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A retraction from the gaming market wouldn't necessarily mean they'd still even produce the current crop of products. I could (and I would argue would) involve a complete shuttering of the GeForce brand, halting current production. On the assumption that Intel and AMD would follow, that wouldn't be an end of upgrades, but an end to the market.

Gaming is a larger market than Hollywood. Maybe it becomes a distraction for Nvidia, but someone will step in. That might actually be a good thing and why Nvidia wont do that: it creates an under served market in which newcomers can cut their teeth.

Much of the gaming market is phone games however, not traditional consoles or PCs.

Edit: about half in fact! The rest is shared between the other traditional gaming types.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#72

Post by noir_lord »

thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

AMD would step in, they where behind nvidia but they've been closing that gap for a while and the 9070XT is the current value king (in this fucked up market) for mid-high gaming and you can actually buy them.

Demand for Nvidia cards has outstripped supply even on the mid-high cards specifically because they do better with local models than AMD cards with the same VRAM do broadly.

AI has completely broken the PC gaming market (and PC/Laptop market more broadly but gaming is really hit hard because it's the exact components that matter for both that overlap).

Nvidia had the mind share among gamers but so did Intel once, inertia only lasts so long they've been thoroughly intent on burning that to the ground for a while, back to the post 1080's

If RDNA5 is good (and 4 was it closed the gap on RT) they'll been in a solid place to take the spot if Nvidia do cede the ground.

I have a 7900XTX the last flagship card AMD did (about equal to a 9070XT for raster but 24GB VRAM not 16GB) and it has been and is a stellar card for gaming (let down only if you care about RT and the games I play don't have it).

Flawless under Linux, weaker on the AI behind nvidia but it runs Qwen surprisingly well and I didn't and don't care too much about that except to poke it occasionally.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#73

Post by jayd16 »

thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

I kind of feel like this topples the house of cards a bit. What else is all the visual genAI tech for besides consumer entertainment?

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#74

Post by manlymuppet »

sailfast wrote: post #57
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #49

> worth around $5.4trn Note that the Fed has a $6.7tn balance sheet [1]. (This is a silly comparison. But still fun.) The real comparison: Nvidia's $500+ billion of investments and commitments [2] is substantially more than any easing the Fed has done in the same time [3]. Monetarily, Nvidia is creating a lot of money in our economy. The good news: I have seen no evidence Nvidia has borrowed against its stock or othe…

It would also follow that by increasing the money supply significantly they’re also contributing to inflation a great deal correct? (Given the rest of the economy is not growing at near the same rate as the AI industry)

Maybe a dumb question but how is NVIDIA increasing the total supply of money? Only the fed can actually order more money to be "created". Private companies can only work within the existing supply, that is, their reserves, no?

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#75

Post by haaz »

sailfast wrote: post #57
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #49

> worth around $5.4trn Note that the Fed has a $6.7tn balance sheet [1]. (This is a silly comparison. But still fun.) The real comparison: Nvidia's $500+ billion of investments and commitments [2] is substantially more than any easing the Fed has done in the same time [3]. Monetarily, Nvidia is creating a lot of money in our economy. The good news: I have seen no evidence Nvidia has borrowed against its stock or othe…

It would also follow that by increasing the money supply significantly they’re also contributing to inflation a great deal correct? (Given the rest of the economy is not growing at near the same rate as the AI industry)

Key difference is that these loans, which do increase the money supply and create inflation, are on average productive and profitable and thus deflationary. Quantitative easing is just printing money and often goes towards repaying bad debts, which are unproductive and thus not deflationary, so the inflation (increase in money supply) does not outweigh the deflation (creating of goods)

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#76

Post by jskdkdkdkf »

lumost wrote: post #35
caaqil wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

While I dislike this take, when the dust settles we will have compute clusters orders of magnitude larger than anything that existed in 2023. If demand vanishes for the 3 million cards Amazon just bought, then something will be done with them. The AI market may end up in a bizarre jepson's paradox of rotation between inference use cases and model training.

[dead]

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#78

Post by bogzz »

tccole wrote: post #42
Mistletoe wrote: post #24

How many top signals like this article do you need to see before you exit the market? Let’s look to the past: https://www.history.com/articles/1929-stock-market-crash-war...

As the saying goes. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

This phrase has reached the point of semantic satiation in my mind.

Maybe THAT'S the real recession indicator.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#80

Post by dexterdog »

jayd16 wrote: post #73
thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

I kind of feel like this topples the house of cards a bit. What else is all the visual genAI tech for besides consumer entertainment?

Fraud?
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