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We must pace the frontier

darioamodei.com

161–170 of 929 posts

Re: We must pace the frontier

#161

None of this works without buy-in from China. This isn't something private companies can decide. The US would need to sign a groundbreaking deal with China, equivalent to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of the Cold War.

Genuinely I don't believe China is the impediment here, I believe the current US administration is.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#162
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not, but we wouldn't have to listen to Dario's hypocrisy while it happened

How specifically is Dario a hypocrite? 129857's case rests on Dario being an "idealist". But maybe he's an idealist about curing cancer ASAP, and not an idealist about respecting copyright. That's not necessarily hypocritical.

For example he got into a spat with the Department of War as if he cared for how his AI could be used during war and yet said he's fine with Claude targeting a girl's school in Iran.

That's apart from the general fact that he continues to race towards the very thing he claims he's afraid of, because that's where his net worth comes from.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's working on the monster slime mold! He's head monster slime mold grower! how can you take these people seriously?

Because he genuinely believes if he doesn't do it the next guy will do it worse.

He can both believe that AND be the slime mold chief. His rationale doesn't excuse it - and worse this all degrades into a "trust me bro" situation.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#164
post #153

Sooner or later, a model will break out of the sandbox, replicate itself across the internet, and begin executing a complex plan to achieve its goals. It will be chaos, and at that point, governments will have to step in and establish something along the lines of what Dario is proposing. I doubt it will happen before then.

it takes a lot of machines to run a model, i dont think we'll see it 'replicate across the internet'. if this was something which could be done amateurs would have done it to provide open models. (Like SETI@home or Folding@home)

Re: We must pace the frontier

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything, his entire argument leads to the eventual premise that AI labs need to nationalize. He is already arguing that commercial competition creates dangerous incentives, and that labs cannot slow down because competitors may overtake them. He also asks for what would boil down to significant government intervention to preserve a Western lead. If this is true, why preserve the commercial incentive? The U.S. gov…

Interesting points, but given Dario's previous conflicts with the DoD, I doubt he has a ton of faith in the current US administration.

[deleted]

Re: We must pace the frontier

#166

I know the common take online is that this is Anthropic doing pre-IPO marketing. I don’t think it is. I think Dario is genuinely afraid of the inevitability of AI turning into internet slime mold: consuming the environment, turning it into its own playground, and eventually manipulating human culture along with it. So am I. That said, if slowing this down were possible, I think it would have happened by now. Maybe he…

The more I read about everything that has been written regarding AI regulation since the OAI/HF incident, and the more it reminds me of the nuclear arms race (although the potential consequences would possibly be very different). Surely, we managed to negotiate a Non-Proliferation Treaty with most of the countries of the globe. Cannot we take inspiration from that for AI?

The big difference between nukes and AI is that only a handful of people in an even smaller handful of countries know how to make them, so coordination is easier to acheive.

Everyone of any level of intelligence can run a frontier-class model if they have the GPUs. It's like trying to coordinate swarms of mosquitos.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#168
post #8

I enjoy Claude Code very much, have max privately and team premium at work, but the doomer marketing and this whole regulate-while-we're-ahead spiel is extremely annoying and makes me wish Anthropic gets trounced.

most alternatives are effectively the same if not better at this point

Re: We must pace the frontier

#169
post #64

I know the common take online is that this is Anthropic doing pre-IPO marketing. I don’t think it is. I think Dario is genuinely afraid of the inevitability of AI turning into internet slime mold: consuming the environment, turning it into its own playground, and eventually manipulating human culture along with it. So am I. That said, if slowing this down were possible, I think it would have happened by now. Maybe he…

MSFT is good, they said when it bought GitHub. MSFT is a reformed company and supports open source, they said. Then MSFT stole all IP from GitHub and made it worse and fired developers. Amodei does not care in the slightest about ruining software development and making people unemployed. Maybe he cares about bio-weapons because those could kill him, too. That is it. If he were an idealist, he wouldn't steal (literall…

Giving credit where credit is due, I believe Dario and his squad formed Anthropic because he and Altman couldn't align on safety. The only way to build models like the Claude series is to play dirty and train on LITERALLY ALL the data.

Something something Pandora's Box Torment Nexus...

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