None of this works without buy-in from China. This isn't something private companies can decide. The US would need to sign a groundbreaking deal with China, equivalent to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of the Cold War.
We must pace the frontier
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Re: We must pace the frontier
#12[deleted]
Re: We must pace the frontier
#13None of this works without buy-in from China. This isn't something private companies can decide. The US would need to sign a groundbreaking deal with China, equivalent to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of the Cold War.
We'd have to make a deal with China and be confident they wouldn't cheat on it.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#14"Slow down my competitors while we work on manipulation"
Re: We must pace the frontier
#15Bro, no, you must stop pasting your opinion, because you share it with no one. This control, no control is crazy. Stop doing it..
This comment reads like Dario's a random tech blogger who's personally submitting these to HN
Re: We must pace the frontier
#16> Given the accelerating rate of AI capability development, it’s my worry that in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet (potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage), and that the scale of damage would continue to increase from there if AI becomes more powerful without the necessary guardrails.
This is the only concrete prediction in the entire essay.
And it simply cannot happen. For one, you will need billions worth of compute.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#17[flagged]
Re: We must pace the frontier
#18I understand why (probably several reasons) they are taking this approach. But I don't think it is the right approach and I don't think it will work.
First: if they are unilaterally doing it: what about their competitors? Is this a chance for OpenAI to pass them? Or China? If either did, would that be a net-benefit for them or the world?
Maybe this is a ploy for "regulatory capture". And that might help them in the short term. But the rest of the world will continue on. Honestly, it isn't clear to me right now if the winning strategy has as much to do with being the smartest company or simply the one that can command the most compute.
If Anthropic fumbles their IPO and OpenAI scoops them, I don't think I will be happy.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#19We must ensure the gravy train keeps rolling until we IPO. > Crack down on unauthorized distillation / prevent weight theft Actually hilarious to put that in writing, given the genesis of this entire business model.
Pulling up the klepto-ladder.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#20[dead]