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We must pace the frontier

darioamodei.com

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Re: We must pace the frontier

#111

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

Retro_Dev wrote: post #30
blfr wrote: post #8

I enjoy Claude Code very much, have max privately and team premium at work, but the doomer marketing and this whole regulate-while-we're-ahead spiel is extremely annoying and makes me wish Anthropic gets trounced.

Ideally there is some sort of regulation, but one that cripples the leading companies like OpenAI and Anthropic... rather than helping them.

See https://pauseai.info/

If AI advancement halts altogether, intelligence will most likely become commoditized. That won't be good for AI company profits.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#112

Post by cynicalsecurity »

blfr wrote: post #8

I enjoy Claude Code very much, have max privately and team premium at work, but the doomer marketing and this whole regulate-while-we're-ahead spiel is extremely annoying and makes me wish Anthropic gets trounced.

Their whole "we want safe and regulated AI" spiel feels woke. China doesn't regulate. Open weight frontier models almost exclusively come from China. Yes, stolen from the West, but China is in control of the frontier open weight AI models now. Woke = broke.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#113

Post by hgoel »

mofeien wrote: post #83
TheSisb2 wrote: post #38

I know the common take online is that this is Anthropic doing pre-IPO marketing. I don’t think it is. I think Dario is genuinely afraid of the inevitability of AI turning into internet slime mold: consuming the environment, turning it into its own playground, and eventually manipulating human culture along with it. So am I. That said, if slowing this down were possible, I think it would have happened by now. Maybe he…

One way to resolve these prisoner dilemmas and races to the bottom is through laws that bind all players, in this case an international treaty and founding of something akin to an International Nuclear Energy Agency for AI. It's not going to be easy, but humans have achieved greater things before. One idea from AI 2040 is to have China and the US build their data centers on the other's territory, respectively. Togeth…

So, as usual, the proposal is to limit what average people can do despite them not having behaved incorrectly nor having the capital to achieve the scaling of the big players, when the big players are the ones causing the harm?

Not to mention the implications for chip hungry developing countries in turning advanced IC fabs into the equivalent of nuclear enrichment facilities.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#114

Post by qw125 »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #93
largbae wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not, but we wouldn't have to listen to Dario's hypocrisy while it happened

How specifically is Dario a hypocrite? 129857's case rests on Dario being an "idealist". But maybe he's an idealist about curing cancer ASAP, and not an idealist about respecting copyright. That's not necessarily hypocritical.

[flagged]

Re: We must pace the frontier

#115

Post by angusturner »

academia_hack wrote: post #90

Dario's proposed approach is a classic example of capital attempting to control technological advancement and the means of production. For the first time in human history, any member of the working class can just about afford to have a team of expert scientist/physician/lawyer/engineers working directly for them. Super intelligence (the ability to have many smarter minds than your own reporting to you) has always bee…

This seems highly optimistic to me.

What's to say current AI won't be highly power-concentrating by default?

The best models are owned by a few companies, and displacement of knowledge-workers mainly seems to benefit the capital class.

On-device / edge computing makes sense in a few very limited scenarios. And economically, price or watt/token (or watt/task completed) might always be better in large data centers.

No reason to think we are on a trajectory towards broad empowerment right now

Re: We must pace the frontier

#116

Post by jhack »

China won't care. Their views on AI feels so vastly different than it does it in West. They'll see a pause as an opportunity to pull further ahead than they already are.

"If we execute these measures well, I believe they would slow China’s progress enough to widen America’s lead significantly over the next 3–5 years — the window when AI becomes geopolitically most important."

This is a pipe dream.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#117

Post by mbo »

academia_hack wrote: post #90

Dario's proposed approach is a classic example of capital attempting to control technological advancement and the means of production. For the first time in human history, any member of the working class can just about afford to have a team of expert scientist/physician/lawyer/engineers working directly for them. Super intelligence (the ability to have many smarter minds than your own reporting to you) has always bee…

What? This is capital, on the cusp of total victory, about to cut itself free from the necessity of human labor for productive activity, to elevate itself into pseudo-godhood suddenly panicking and begging its mortal enemy, _the state_ to rein it in and kneecap it. Capital is not stupid: there's no use in being rich if you're dead.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#118

Post by xg15 »

I don't see how the dual goals of "we have to make an agreement with China for mutual slowdown" but also "we have to ensure we will always stay ahead of China" would work.

I imagine the first thing the chinese government would demand in negotiations about such an agreement would be a lifting of the chip and distillation ban.

> Some may believe these measures make it more difficult to cooperate with China, but I believe the opposite is true: these measures increase the leverage held by democracies and make an agreement more likely in the future.

Everyone can believe what they like, but it seems to me the "leverage" in that case would exactly be the ability to lift those measures - you can't have both, use them as leverage and keep them active at the same time.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#119

Post by kalkin »

blfr wrote: post #85
NiloCK wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The degradation, polarization, and weaponization of or media landscape over the era of social media has left us utterly incapable of believing anything that anybody says. Dario in particular has consistently been risk-wary on model improvements for going on a decade - long before he was CEO of Anthropic. He believes what he is saying. Human beings can plainly say things that they think are true. Not every utterance b…

I have considered it, I've been hearing way more of it that I like and it's rationalist slop with little to no predictive power: https://foom.hyperplex.org/

Hmm, I clicked that link and the first claimed bad prediction I see, from 1996, is "singularity 2035 (actually 2025)".

Predicting 2025-2035 as, at least, the period when AI becomes a really big deal, seems pretty good, even if the jury's still out on "singularity".

Broadly, the rationalists seem to have been pretty early to realizing LLMs were a big deal, and certainly seem to have had a much more accurate picture of how they'd develop than the people who denounce "TESCREAL" and talk about "stochastic parrots". It's fair (and IMHO correct) to ding rationalists for lots of things, but specifically poor prediction about AI seems like a bad one, insofar as anything has been tested so far.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#120

Post by youoy »

NiloCK wrote: post #45
blfr wrote: post #8

I enjoy Claude Code very much, have max privately and team premium at work, but the doomer marketing and this whole regulate-while-we're-ahead spiel is extremely annoying and makes me wish Anthropic gets trounced.

The degradation, polarization, and weaponization of or media landscape over the era of social media has left us utterly incapable of believing anything that anybody says. Dario in particular has consistently been risk-wary on model improvements for going on a decade - long before he was CEO of Anthropic. He believes what he is saying. Human beings can plainly say things that they think are true. Not every utterance b…

This sounds to me like a cry for help from someone thats held hostage.

His previous self is writting this from the possition of his current self who is too deep in the economic consequeces to be able to do anything meaningful other than write a consequenceless text. Any other action would now carry too much personal risk for him.

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