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Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

bbc.com

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Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#511

Post by lenerdenator »

anonymousDan wrote: post #468
lenerdenator wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe it or not, they're not exactly a 1-to-1. Up until fairly recently, Israel was a stand-out in the region for actually having things like decently fair elections and a political class derived from a relatively wide sample of its populace. Other countries in the region were either Arab nationalist republics, Islamic republics, or authoritarian monarchies. While it was ethno-theocratic, it was one that seemed to…

The irony of Americans chastising Iranians for not living in a democratic country given how Iran ended up as a theocracy...

I'm not chastising them for anything. I'm explaining my view on the rationale of their leadership.

That being said, if you're talking about the 1953 coup, ask the British about that. Also, it doesn't take away from the fact that the 1979 revolution didn't install any sort of representative government, either.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#512

Post by ElProlactin »

autoexec wrote: post #462
apexalpha wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US President routinely announces policy decisions on social media… You’d lose a lot of money always waiting for news through officials channels. Who knows how slow Yemini military channels are. You’d bet your life on it?

> The US President routinely announces policy decisions on social media… Yes, our current President also does stupid things, and our military forces shouldn't be using his incoherent ramblings on Twitter to make snap judgements on the battlefield without checking with their chain of command either.

> ...and our military forces shouldn't be using his incoherent ramblings on Twitter to make snap judgements on the battlefield without checking with their chain of command either.

You mean the chain of command that has been purged of experienced professionals?

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#513

Post by criddell »

laimewhisps wrote: post #103
criddell wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think this, out of the non-stop parade of Trump crazy bullshit, is the issue that will finally sink him?

Because his supporters have huge trucks and need tons of gas.

The $5,000 dividend he's promised will buy a lot of gas.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#514

Post by khazhoux »

QuercusMax wrote: post #216
737min wrote: post #180

Ansar Allah (Houthis) is a terrible Islamist group that commits warcrimws against both Yemenis and people thousands of miles away. Here’s just one example, executing men for gayness: https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/03/27/yemen-houthis-sentence-m... “In addition to death sentences that include crucifixion and stoning, the Houthi court sentenced 23 men to prison for periods of up to 10 years. Three of them were also sent…

Do they do double-tap strikes on schools and hospitals? Do they shoot children 355 times to make sure they're dead like with Hind Rajab? Just trying to see how the compare to the US and Israeli militaries when it comes to war crimes.

I’ll never understand this mentality. The Houthis commit human rights violations. We’re here talking about the Houthis.

We’re not talking about Israel’s war crimes, or America’s war crimes, or Japan’s war crimes, or China’s war crimes, or Cambodia’s war crimes, or Germany’s war crimes, or Britain’s, or Armenia’s, or North Korea’s, South Korea’s, Italy’s, or actually any other country’s.

So why do you think we shouldn’t condemn the Houthis?

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#515

Post by jollyllama »

ciconia wrote: post #459
jollyllama wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not clear that non-mercenary Arab armies are much better in this respect.

It's not clear that Western armies are better either, as we've seen time and again in Iran, Afghanistan and Syria.

I'm not aware of any mass desertions by Western armies.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#516

Post by bluGill »

DrScientist wrote: post #410
bluGill wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has some influence. They did do what was said - but only if you take the absolute most charitable reading (which is a expected here).

Eh? They didn't/aren't using their stockpiles to anywhere near the extent the US has! There reserves are much bigger - they have about a years supply - yet they used less in absolute terms than the US! What they did was aggressively reduce demand by accelerating the switch to EV's and firing up a few more coal powerstations. In terms of influencing the midterms - I suspect China isn't anywhere near the front of the q…

They are strategically using their stockpiles. There are a lot of factors in their strategy and some of them conflict. This has an effect on the world market.

How much of their strategy is to change elections vs other concerns I don't know.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#517

Post by pphysch »

andriy_koval wrote: post #336
pphysch wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran clearly has the capability to flatten every major hospital and university and desalination plant in Israel, like Israel has done in Gaza, but they don't. It's also clear that Iran having nukes would be a strategic deterrent to Israel's ultraviolent territorial expansionism.

> Iran clearly has the capability to flatten every major hospital and university and desalination plant in Israel its not clear at all. They clearly tried to hit Izrael with barrages of missiles, but looks like their targeting systems suck.

I suggest you look into the many confirmed impacts in Israel, including at heavily protected airbases and downtown Tel Aviv where the regime embeds its military intelligence centers.

There's a reason why Israel has stopped directly striking Iran.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#518

Post by ndiddy »

ericmay wrote: post #222
pphysch wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran clearly has the capability to flatten every major hospital and university and desalination plant in Israel, like Israel has done in Gaza, but they don't. It's also clear that Iran having nukes would be a strategic deterrent to Israel's ultraviolent territorial expansionism.

> Iran clearly has the capability to flatten every major hospital and university and desalination plant in Israel, like Israel has done in Gaza, but they don't. I'm not supportive of Israel having nuclear weapons, but Iran won't do something like this because the Israelis might nuke them. That doesn't excuse Iran also building nuclear weapons. Neither should have them, in my view. Iran also supports the militants tha…

> I'm not supportive of Israel having nuclear weapons, but Iran won't do something like this because the Israelis might nuke them.

You've said elsewhere in this thread that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and that a global oil crisis is worth preventing that from happening. You've referred to the Iranian government as a "deranged death cult". Here you're saying that even though Iran already has the capability of making Israel uninhabitable, they won't do it because they're rational actors who understand mutually assured destruction. Which one is it? Assuming your premise in this comment of the Iranians being rational actors who understand MAD is correct, could there be other reasons for Iran to pursue nuclear weapons (i.e. sovereignty and national security)?

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#519

Post by epolanski »

chasd00 wrote: post #493
epolanski wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil is sold globally. It doesn't matter if in Texas wells are producing it at a penny for barrel, if the global prices are high that oil is going to be sold to Philippinos, Japanese, Italians or South Africans. So, at the same time, it doesn't matter if some new routes open or close, it doesn't particularly favor one or the other buyer, it's still sold globally on a bid.

i don't see why deals can't change. It's just a contract, the IRS could create a tax incentive for US producers to sell to US refineries at a discount. US producers could do it on their own if they so chose as well.

I don't understand how do you think that would work and who would pay the bill.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#520

Post by Havoc »

softwaredoug wrote: post #97

My understanding is we haven’t gotten to full Hormuz apocalypse mode because the Chinese have a ton of stockpiles. And the Red Sea has been an option. Those conditions seem to be changing.

Don't think that's 100%. They do have a ton of stockpiles and timed additional buys very well, but their reduction in oil imports (9%?) appears to be actual usage drops rather than running down stockpiles. They're at much higher levels now than when this kicked off.

Which if correct is a crazy display of flexibility in the economy

[9%] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-fa...

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