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Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

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Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#401

That's why relying on mercs (which is what both UAE and Saudi chose in Yemen) is a double edged sword. At some point the cash isn't enough of a motivator and they will just run away.

We seem to be in need of a mercenary Uber, where individual mercenaries will have their reputation and the potential customers will be able to check it.

In the past you could just hire Swiss.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#402
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not naivete/goodness, this is totally aligned with their playbook of trying to get AI to be heavily regulated.

OK, that is a plausible argument given Dario's public positions. I have to admit that I keep cutting them some slack for standing up against automated kill chains, and domestic surveillance.

Automated kill chains and domestic surveillance are happening regardless of what one corporation wants. These technologies will never be inaccessible to the government or government contractors who already have zero issues navigating red tape.

The point of regulation is to kill competitors and prevent private individuals from having unfettered access.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran clearly has the capability to flatten every major hospital and university and desalination plant in Israel, like Israel has done in Gaza, but they don't. It's also clear that Iran having nukes would be a strategic deterrent to Israel's ultraviolent territorial expansionism.

> Iran clearly has the capability to flatten every major hospital and university and desalination plant in Israel, like Israel has done in Gaza, but they don't. I'm not supportive of Israel having nuclear weapons, but Iran won't do something like this because the Israelis might nuke them. That doesn't excuse Iran also building nuclear weapons. Neither should have them, in my view. Iran also supports the militants tha…

Why did Iran willingly disassemble their other WMD programs, like bioweapons and chemical weapons, if they are irrationally bound to destroying Israel?

Chemical weapons are perfectly effective for that desire and dramatically easier to build and deploy than nuclear weapons.

So if you expect Iran to just explode Israel ASAP, why are they holding back right now with their weapons not targeting civilian infrastructure? Why did they stop pursuing cheap WMDs that don't need complicated enrichment?

Note that Iran is objectively not pursuing a nuke as fast as possible. They've had sufficient enriched uranium for a long time to be able to actually start building and testing physics packages and even get their first detonation test, but they instead have just been building a stockpile.

>I'm not supportive of Israel having nuclear weapons

Okay, then by your arguments about Iran, we should be invading Israel right? Like right now! They cannot be allowed to have nukes!

What about North Korea? It sure is funny how all the hand wringing about them getting nuclear weapons got quiet after they built a nuke and didn't use it

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#404
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not naivete/goodness, this is totally aligned with their playbook of trying to get AI to be heavily regulated.

OK, that is a plausible argument given Dario's public positions. I have to admit that I keep cutting them some slack for standing up against automated kill chains, and domestic surveillance.

To be clear, I don't think they're doing it because they want all the money, I think they truly believe that this is existentially threatening, and are trying to regulate their open source competition away because they think that's the way to be safe. That they can be trusted with the power, but if it's out and about, that's unsafe - they like to compare it to nukes, and they want nuclear non-proliferation.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. It's an intolerable premise and if the price to be paid is global oil catastrophe it's a price well worth paying Says you. All other nuclear nations behave (even Pakistan and India, which are at each other throat all the time). What makes you think that Iran won't? It will also have Russia and China keep a lid on them, same as North Korea. And I don't buy the "Iran is different" go…

> All other nuclear nations behave Russia, China, the U.S., North Korea, Israel. These are all countries that absolutely do not behave. Each commits atrocities on a regular basis. Them having nukes makes accountability much more difficult. Just to be clear: the current situation is a huge mess caused by one deranged leader.

> Just to be clear: the current situation is a huge mess caused by one deranged leader.

Sorry that's just dead wrong. This doesn't happen in a vacuum. I mean you could simply add Netanyahu and make your statement incorrect here. Nevermind all the other actors, Iran's deranged death cult, and more.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#406

The Houthis created a fake audio of a major Yemeni commander telling his troops to retreat which was subsequently amplified on Twitter/X, telegram, etc. Apparently, this helped the Houthis advance quickly as the opposition forces were in disarray. https://x.com/BashaReport/status/2097862335494795579

Can't read the Twitter link, but that sounds made up. Where in the battlefield decision making process are they listening to social media recordings to make combat decisions?

It gave demoralized soldiers an excuse to flee rather than fight. Nobody was going to question the reprieve offered by an order to retreat, even fake.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#407
post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons Ukraine never had nuclear weapons. Russia is the sole legal successor of the USSR and these were all Russian nukes on Ukrainian territory. > in exchange for peace from Russia There isn't a single mention of nuclear weapons in the Budapest Memorandum.

This is over simplified to the point of being misleading/wrong. Russia was the legal successor of the USSR for purposes of diplomatic continuity, but the other Soviet successor states divided portions of the Soviet military/equipment, split Soviet debt obligations, etc on a case by case basis.

Nuclear weapons are a special case though. Plus Ukraine didn't have the ability to use them anyway without launch codes as far as I'm aware.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#408

The Houthis created a fake audio of a major Yemeni commander telling his troops to retreat which was subsequently amplified on Twitter/X, telegram, etc. Apparently, this helped the Houthis advance quickly as the opposition forces were in disarray. https://x.com/BashaReport/status/2097862335494795579

If that's true, it's insane that it worked. It should be obvious to not take orders from twitter. There's a chain of command for a reason and random people on social media are no part of it. Sounds like the opposition forces would have to be so stupid that any number of Looney Tunes style tricks would have worked. Maybe next they can send out a rabbit in a dress to make opposition fall in love with it.

Twitter is huge in KSA. Much more significant a share than other countries. Something like 60% to 70% of the population are active users.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#409

That's why relying on mercs (which is what both UAE and Saudi chose in Yemen) is a double edged sword. At some point the cash isn't enough of a motivator and they will just run away.

Iraq saw massive desertion amongst all non-mercenary ranks during Desert Storm and OIF.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blaming the current situation on the actions of China is beyond bizarre.

China has some influence. They did do what was said - but only if you take the absolute most charitable reading (which is a expected here).

Eh? They didn't/aren't using their stockpiles to anywhere near the extent the US has! There reserves are much bigger - they have about a years supply - yet they used less in absolute terms than the US!

What they did was aggressively reduce demand by accelerating the switch to EV's and firing up a few more coal powerstations.

In terms of influencing the midterms - I suspect China isn't anywhere near the front of the queue in hoping Trump get's a beating given the chaos he is causing.

Complaining about foreign interference is ironically straight from the Hillary playbook.

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