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Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

bbc.com

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Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#371

Post by rurp »

softwaredoug wrote: post #97

My understanding is we haven’t gotten to full Hormuz apocalypse mode because the Chinese have a ton of stockpiles. And the Red Sea has been an option. Those conditions seem to be changing.

Yeah Chinese oil reserves were much larger than was publicly known. They immediately cut imports by a massive amount as soon as the war started and have been able to keep it up for months. Without that the economic fallout would have been far greater.

Not that they are doing it for this reason, but they have done a lot to shield trump from the consequences of his stupid war. But those supplies can only hold for so long; things can get much worse for the world economy in the near future.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#372

Post by DrScientist »

markvdb wrote: post #55
littlecranky67 wrote: post #10

Will this bring oil prices down in Europe? Oil tankers could still go to the mediteranian via the suez canal. This will not help asia, but I can imagine if it is too dangerous the go through bab al-mandab strait it is more lucrative to sell the crude oil to europe at a discount?

No. A cynic might think a significant part of this half-arsed Iran war was: - make sure fuel prices increase globally - The US economy is relatively well-shielded from the fallout by its own fossil fuel sources, local and in colonies like Venezuela. - export more US fossil fuels, especially to Europe, at inflated prices. US insiders reap the profits. - further kneecap European competitiveness in energy intensive sect…

Using that lens then you could view the Iran war is simply a failed ( so far ) attempt to grab Iranian oil revenues, perhaps emboldened by the relatively quick success of the Venezuela adventure.

The truth is probably much more multi-headed - though hard to see how the US would have gone to war without some assessment of their own energy situation.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#373

Post by LtWorf »

seatac76 wrote: post #156

If Dems win next time around they should repeal the AUMF at the very least. We cannot be at war at all times.

I think USA has not been at war like less than 5 years in total since its creation.

source: https://www.raffaellocortina.it/scheda-libro/piergiorgio-odi...

I don't have the book here with me so I cannot check the exact amount of years but it's ridiculously small.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#374

Post by cdmckay »

ericmay wrote: post #146
softwaredoug wrote: post #97

My understanding is we haven’t gotten to full Hormuz apocalypse mode because the Chinese have a ton of stockpiles. And the Red Sea has been an option. Those conditions seem to be changing.

[flagged]

> Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. It's an intolerable premise

I’m not sure the only country that has used nukes on people should be the one to decide that

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#375

Post by jollyllama »

electrondood wrote: post #212
consumer451 wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Holy shit. This is really interesting. AI used to impersonate, social media to amplify, and that led to a significant tactical defeat? I don't want to live in interesting times anymore.

They also used Claude in a fairly sophisticated way to design their missile guidance system (PDF, search for GTG-87001). https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/e50be2e51e7695dc4b1366a37a245a...

"AI is critical for National Defense."

"But I don't see it helping us, it's just helping our enemies get closer to parity ."

"Precisely. How else are we going to justify the budget?"

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#376

Post by bluGill »

laimewhisps wrote: post #103
criddell wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think this, out of the non-stop parade of Trump crazy bullshit, is the issue that will finally sink him?

Because his supporters have huge trucks and need tons of gas.

His supporters are a minority. There are others who voted for him as they felt it was the least bad option, but they are not supporters (and many of them regret their vote, though they probably would have stayed home, or voted third party). The supporters are a loud and vocal minority though.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#377

Post by thriving_earthw »

lenerdenator wrote: post #329
pphysch wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can Israel have a nuclear weapon? It is also an insanely violent ethno-theocratic regime.

Believe it or not, they're not exactly a 1-to-1. Up until fairly recently, Israel was a stand-out in the region for actually having things like decently fair elections and a political class derived from a relatively wide sample of its populace. Other countries in the region were either Arab nationalist republics, Islamic republics, or authoritarian monarchies. While it was ethno-theocratic, it was one that seemed to…

They want to nuke the land they consider holy?

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#378

Post by jollyllama »

mamonster wrote: post #101

That's why relying on mercs (which is what both UAE and Saudi chose in Yemen) is a double edged sword. At some point the cash isn't enough of a motivator and they will just run away.

It's not clear that non-mercenary Arab armies are much better in this respect.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#379

Post by markvdb »

noelsusman wrote: post #71
markvdb wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. A cynic might think a significant part of this half-arsed Iran war was: - make sure fuel prices increase globally - The US economy is relatively well-shielded from the fallout by its own fossil fuel sources, local and in colonies like Venezuela. - export more US fossil fuels, especially to Europe, at inflated prices. US insiders reap the profits. - further kneecap European competitiveness in energy intensive sect…

It's nice to think there was some sort of plan, but the truth is much scarier.

I observe mostly short term opportunism. Powerful people deliberately injecting chaos for financial profit.

Negative externalities:

- loss of trust

- loss of evidence based policy

- loss of long-term planning

- loss of talent

- financial loss for almost all except the rare insiders

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#380

Post by cdmckay »

ericmay wrote: post #357
SimianSci wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using your reasoning, you can basically throw out any structured system that doesn't comply with your own untrustworthy feelings of security. You can essentially point at any shadow within the borders of Iran and claim there are hidden actors conspiring towards your undoing. What aside from their total annihilation or subjugation would ever convince you of your (Israel's) safety?

But using your own reasoning then Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty so they are also throwing out a structured system that doesn't comply with their own feelings.

There’s zero evidence Iran was developing nuclear weapons
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