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What will our economic future look like?

anthropic.com

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Re: What will our economic future look like?

#341

Post by nwatson »

onlypassingthru wrote: post #204
dukeyukey wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being able to fly at all is a much better passenger experience than not having that choice in the first place. And I'll bet that flying first class today is far better than 50 years ago.

Would that be in one of the smoking or non-smoking seats in first class? Amazing how the smoke knew where to stay back then.

In Brazil in the 1980s the VASP (Viação Aérea São Paulo) airline put their smoking section on the right side of the single aisle, and the non-smoking on the left side of the single-aisle. The smoke stayed on the right side just fine. (jk)

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#342

Post by [deleted] »

timacles wrote: post #145
keybored wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and leading to class wars. Aren’t we overdue for one anyway.

Class war started about 15 years ago post 2007 financial crisis. The banks and those who control them all knew where we are headed, so they got a little head start destabilizing democracy. Once us working class get a grasp of the actual situation, we are going to be so deep in the hole, fighting back is going to be quite difficult when the "asset owners" own and control the majority of the worlds resources, all media…

[deleted]

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#343

Post by 392 »

SamuelAdams wrote: post #327
ElProlactin wrote: post #266

> Only humans can do some tasks > For instance, AI can’t bathe a patient. Until there are robots. Or the AI gets creative in an attempt to find a solution to this "problem" and orders a fatal dose of morphine for the patient. > And new tasks will appear > Historically, new technologies have also created new tasks for workers. For a nurse, that might be checking how well an AI triages patients, or reviewing an AI-prop…

You really ought to study recent developments in the service industry. Olive Garden added a tablet to every table so that customers can place their orders without talking to or waiting for a waiter. The goal was faster, more accurate service, since now the waiter did not need to remember your extremely detailed order. And yet most people prefer talking to a waiter. There are other restaurants that have tried similar…

I'm sure their numbers show the tablet in use, as corporate desires. I place my order with the waitress and she picks up the tablet to place it, citing "that's what they want us to do"

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#344

Post by bradfa »

pvab3 wrote: post #243
Toutouxc wrote: post #28

I like how the least optimistic scenario is simply LLMs not making a difference, instead of the very real possibility of them damaging education, destroying people’s attention spans and their ability to learn, eroding trust within societies, increasing the wealth inequality and leading to class wars. I believe the net effect of LLMs is, at this point, firmly negative, and it’s going to take years until they start mak…

I can't imagine trying to be a teacher in 2026. I would have never written a single paper or problem set myself in HS and college.

Hand written exams are coming back into fashion. You get a pencil and the exam book. Nothing else. Show your work.

Catching cheaters is still hard but it will keep honest people more honest.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#345

Post by beachy »

pezezin wrote: post #312
JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

My dad is a retired nurse. Most of his work was giving shots, treating wounds, extracting blood, putting IV catheters, etc. In other words, physical tasks. How is an "AI agent" or LLM going to take care of that?

When I watch medical professionals at work, a lot of the time they are writing or typing, reading or shuffling through notes, talking to others or waiting for results from some lab down the hall. Or any number of things that to me look like crappy admin tasks.

I'm sure they aren't all, but friends who work in the hospital tell tales of woeful inefficiencies and pointless beauracracy. Of course YMMV and this is a public health system.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#346

Post by fuzzfactor »

ozgung wrote: post #44

Finding 4 is a must-read: > Finding 4: Labor vs. capital share: The pie will grow, but a larger share might go to capital > Today, of each dollar the economy produces, about 60¢ goes to workers and 40¢ go to capital. Modest scenario: 40.6% to capital in 2030 (labor share down 0.6 points) Substantial scenario: 43.9% to capital in 2030 (labor share down 3.9 points) Extreme scenario: 54.8% to capital in 2030 (labor shar…

IOW, "What economic future?"

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#347

Post by bdangubic »

krapp wrote: post #338
bdangubic wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is a tool just like any other tool. Holding “AI” accountable is like holding JetBrains accountable for the bugs I wrote with their tool than endangered lives of people

There is simply too much money and too many interests vested in the narrative (which many people already believe) that LLMs are thinking, feeling, sapient beings already beyond the threshold of AGI that deserve some status of legal personhood and liability. It is impossible to create the future that these people want to create - one in which AI comprises the new legal class of nobility in an age of technofeudalism -…

how will this manifest itself!? like you envision a future where there will be say a hospital, ran by anthropic which is AI powered fully, no company behind it, just plain Claude running everything from the moment you walk in till you walk out?

I am having a hard time imagining a future where “AI” isn’t just a tool that a given establishment decided to use much like anything else they use

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#348

Post by MentalM »

_doctor_love wrote: post #87

Like others in the thread have pointed out, the nurse example is interesting. From my point of view, the point about the nurse is especially relevant because, in the future, dealing with an aging population is going to become a major undertaking and a major burden. Demographically, we simply don't have the number of people we need to give elders the care that they'll probably have to have near the end of their life,…

> Demographically, we simply don't have the number of people we need to give elders the care that they'll probably have to have near the end of their life, so we have to rely on AI to help us get through it.

That is an interesting theory. That could explain why all developed countries seems deliberately raising their young generations to be as unprepared for real life as possible. They simply fear that if the younger generation becomes capable of anything, the younger generations will simply discard democracy, which the more numerous and more weak older generation planning to use to redistribute wealth in their own favor, and the older generations will be left to drag a miserable existence.

South Korea will be interesting to watch indeed.

Hell, maybe even the lowest fertility rate of South Korea in the world and it's de-facto status of western colony is not a coincidence, but designed situation to watch in advance what challenges low birth rate will bring and how better to overcome those challenges

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#349

Post by adg001 »

While they describe how GDP is shared between workers and capital in the three reference scenarios, they don't offer political economy ideas about how wealth redistribution shall be rethought, and the role of the State, if any. If a share of knowledge workers are about to be driven out of market, the real consequences of this deserves deeper reflection.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#350

Post by nixon_why69 »

WalterBright wrote: post #285
psadauskas wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

During the industrial revolution, people thought that all these new machines and factories and electricity meant that everyone would only have to work 4 hours a week since it made everyone so much more productive. That's not what happened, though. Everyone worked the same amount for the same pay, just in more miserable repetitive working conditions, while the factory owners kept all profits from the gains in producti…

Nope. The working week reduced hours. Those factories were not producing luxury goods. They produced everyday items for the masses. Things like knives, spoons, tools, textiles, ketchup bottles, shoes, furniture, nails, bicycles, etc. Standard Oil, for example, improved efficiency and reduced the consumer price of kerosene 70%. There's no evidence of outsized profits.

Standard oil is the textbook example of an abusive monopoly and was broken up for that reason.

They improved efficiency by cutting exclusive deals with railroads and transport companies due to their size which froze out every other company.

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