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Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

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221–230 of 750 posts

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#221

I'd much rather all of the resources that are going into autonomous cars was instead going into proper public transit infrastructure. Cars are so hopelessly space and energy inefficient, and I hate driving them. If I could get around by bus, light rail, bike, and all of the wasted city space devoted to parking could be turned into more housing and amenities, that would be great. I think it would be meaningful to also…

Public transit is too often a jobs program

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Rental scooters/bikes cover last mile service very well in my experience. Not so great for family trips, shopping around, etc.

Those (rare) occasions are when you rent a car. You can do it many times per year before it becomes a financially worse option.

It’s currently 95 degrees. No thanks

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#223
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rental scooters/bikes cover last mile service very well in my experience. I use transit a great deal more than I would if I had to walk so much on either end of the trip.

Americans would rather die than give up their air conditioned bubbles on wheels. I've wondered why someone hasn't tried manufacturing an enclosed go kart with AC and enough trunk space for a few groceries.

> I've wondered why someone hasn't tried manufacturing an enclosed go kart with AC and enough trunk space for a few groceries.

Because they are completely unsafe against a twice-the-height, multi-ton Ford pickup truck.

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#224
post #191

I have a feeling that once everything goes EV and autopilot, they will start phasing out regular cars or will make it more difficult to obtain the license.

And it'll negatively impact all but the upper classes. Automakers would rather everyone use their autopilot taxi services for the higher profit margins, so autopilot EVs will be prohibitively expensive to outright buy.

I think it would positively impact lower classes because car ownership is by far the biggest financial drain you can take on.

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is, at least in a place like LA. Fares are like less than 10% the actual total cost of an average bus ride. https://www.reddit.com/r/LAMetro/comments/1orftnt/should_you... Now if you’re ONLY serving high density and high passenger volume times, buses are incredible.

Is your point that busses aren't profitable? Why do they need to be? I am sure if you did the math, having the occasional empty bus does not hold a candle to the amount of dead mass being dragged along in single-occupant cars. The wear-and-tear on the road from the sheer volume of cars alone makes them cost more to us as a society than busses. So regardless of density and passenger volume, busses are incredible.

> The wear-and-tear on the road from the sheer volume of cars alone makes them cost more to us as a society than busses.

That doesn't really math, because axle weight is a large factor in road wear. There's details and it doesn't always apply, but the commonly used rule of thumb is that "road wear increases in proportion to the fourth power of its axle load."

If a transit bus weighs at least 25000 lbs and has two axles [2] and a F-150 has an average weight of 5000 lbs with two axles [3], you get a lot more road wear from putting a bunch of people on a bus compared to all of them driving their f-150s by themselves. The power rule says the wear from one bus is equivalent to 625 F-150s. Although if people rode around in classic Beetles (~ 2000 lbs), there'd be even less road wear, and things would be a lot groovier.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_power_law

[2] https://phoenixtransportationsf.com/how-much-does-a-bus-weig...

[3] https://www.fordoffeasterville.com/2025-ford-f-150-weight-gu...

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#226

Fatality data is extremely skewed. 44% of drivers aren't using a seatbelt, 29% are speeding related, I recall alcohol involvement being about 30%, though it's not listed in the link I checked. About 20% of automobile fatalities aren't in cars but are pedestrians or bicyclists struck by cars (add another 16% if you want to include motorcyclists, though only half of which involve another vehicle). I recall the percenta…

My tesla has yet to ask for a road beer while in FSD.

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great, so when a deer jumps into the middle of the highway the size of the ensuing pileup is twenty times larger. I don't particularly think we should use technology to push efficiency to the point where a mechanical failure, a material failure, or an unexpected object cause much larger scale catastrophes than exist today. Why not aim for the same distance between cars and twenty times more safety instead?

Because traffic volume. Autonomous cars won't panic and cause pileups.

The way to prevent pileups is not to assume that everything will work correctly, including every system on every car.

It's to assume that every single thing that could break, will break, and design enough resiliency in that you have to stack up as many failures as possible before things truly go off the rails.

So to do this without killing people, you add the new systems with the same safety thresholds, then gather quite a few years of statistics, then, slowly let things become more efficient if that's both warranted by data and also warranted by simulation of events that you do not yet have data for.

Skipping steps in this because you want to put more cars on the road immediately is foolish and dangerous.

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#228

Fatality data is extremely skewed. 44% of drivers aren't using a seatbelt, 29% are speeding related, I recall alcohol involvement being about 30%, though it's not listed in the link I checked. About 20% of automobile fatalities aren't in cars but are pedestrians or bicyclists struck by cars (add another 16% if you want to include motorcyclists, though only half of which involve another vehicle). I recall the percenta…

> "The majority of drivers are good, but some drivers are really bad." I take issue with this. The majority of drivers are "mostly fine as long as circumstances are favorable", not "good". People for the most part do not even know about the concept of defensive driving let alone practice it. Even the best people are fundamentally complacent in basically everything they do. They zone out sometimes, they get too close,…

The fatality rate is 1.19 per 100 million vehicle miles [1], ~83 million miles per fatality. The mean driver averages ~15,000 miles per year. So, the mean driver encounters a fatal crash after ~5,500 years of driving. If you started driving when the Great Pyramid was built, you would still have another 1,000 years before you would expect to die in a fatal crash.

The mean driver in the context of the USA driving environment is shockingly safe. Being safer than even the mean human driver in the USA is hard and takes a shocking amount of data to verify. Anybody downplaying it as "lol humans are so unsafe" to argue the problem feels easy to solve or can be solved by the end of the year with a little bit of elbow grease is utterly clueless.

[1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#229

It has been, from the start and even before FSD had any basis in reality and was just sci-fi stories, obvious that FSD would eventually get here. The only question has been when. We clearly aren't there yet but it is pretty obvious we aren't as far away as the naysayers make out. I want FSD, but I want it on consumer terms. Safety is only one aspect and it is the one constantly brought up. It is important, but in the…

Self driving can be safer even if it's less competent because it can just be programed to be more risk adverse, always keep safe stopping distances and slow down when the conditions are adverse. A human driver _might_ be more skilled in driving through a snow storm but the self driving car just slows down and ends up safer.

Most drivers take absurd risks that negate any possible skill advantage.

Re: Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

#230

I'd much rather all of the resources that are going into autonomous cars was instead going into proper public transit infrastructure. Cars are so hopelessly space and energy inefficient, and I hate driving them. If I could get around by bus, light rail, bike, and all of the wasted city space devoted to parking could be turned into more housing and amenities, that would be great. I think it would be meaningful to also…

It does. About the same amount of money was spent in funding for Waymo as funding SFMTA over the period Waymo has existed. So in SF we are putting in as much money on public transit as Alphabet et al. is on Waymo and we both have the results we have.
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