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Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

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Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#11
post #4

Was very curious on what was meant by the following: > The study included a real-time alert system for intervening if a person indicated a high suicidal intent Because it sounds a bit dystopian. And found a little more about it[0] > For example, in our monitoring studies, we install smartphone apps on participants’ phones. These participants are often recruited from hospitals after presenting with high suicide risk.…

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Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#12
I'm curious what actions the app takes once a sufficient risk has been determined? Does the app or people managing the service just send paramilitary police units to SWAT people or what?

I really don't see how this much different than something like calling/texting 988.

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#13

Unqualified use of the word "predicts" is a little bit of a stretch in this editorialized title. The study doesn't predict suicide attempts out of some type of biometric or otherwise observable data or surveillance information, it's predicting it from a self-survey. The actual journal article title tells the story much better: "Using smartphone surveys to predict next-week suicide attempts" https://psycnet.apa.org/do…

Also, "most." Presumably most attempters were not participating in the study's surveys, so it would be impossible for the study to predict for them.

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#15

Harvard study authors never read Emil Cioran.

Why do you say that - are you referencing something specific or just a point about his framing of existence? I just finished "a short history of decay"

Cioran claimed to have been able to avoid killing himself by fully embracing the idea of suicide.

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#16
post #9

Unqualified use of the word "predicts" is a little bit of a stretch in this editorialized title. The study doesn't predict suicide attempts out of some type of biometric or otherwise observable data or surveillance information, it's predicting it from a self-survey. The actual journal article title tells the story much better: "Using smartphone surveys to predict next-week suicide attempts" https://psycnet.apa.org/do…

Uh, sounds like a prediction to me? It’s not “not a prediction” just because the prediction is not made on a certain type of data.

Oh it is a scientific prediction for sure.

I am just saying that if a layperson were told, "I have invented a machine that can accurately predict when someone is going to do Z!", but then, while researching the technology behind how such a prediction is possible, turns out the machine simply has been repeatedly asking the person how likely it is they will be doing Z, how much they think about Z, etc, then the layperson may feel a bit misled by the initial claim. I feel that way towards the editor that wrote this article title.

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#17
post #9

Unqualified use of the word "predicts" is a little bit of a stretch in this editorialized title. The study doesn't predict suicide attempts out of some type of biometric or otherwise observable data or surveillance information, it's predicting it from a self-survey. The actual journal article title tells the story much better: "Using smartphone surveys to predict next-week suicide attempts" https://psycnet.apa.org/do…

Uh, sounds like a prediction to me? It’s not “not a prediction” just because the prediction is not made on a certain type of data.

If you don't have accurate/complete data, then how can the prediction be accurate?

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#18
> 90 percent of people who survived a suicide attempt reported that they had been feeling an urge to alleviate psychological agitation and pain that turned out to be temporal — like “being in a burning room” or wanting to “shut everything off for a couple of days,” Nock said.

I moved to Austin last week, away from my wife and 3yo daughter. It’s been torture. Today was the first time I could FaceTime with her without completely breaking down crying.

One annoying part about suicide is that if you reveal to anyone that you want to stop living, they usually treat you like a big risk, or think you’re insane, or worry you might hurt them, or be uncomfortable to be around you anymore.

Someone at a party was going through my key chain. “Mail key?” “Nope, gun key if I decide to blow my brains out.” That was basically the last time I talked to them.

For a datapoint of n=1, my biggest factor motivating me to do it is the constant pain. It permeates your whole chest, all day, every day.

I’ve been fortunate to make some friends here. But really, I just don’t want to continue living. In a way, it feels like being in a cult — everyone around me thinks life is so great, and that it’s so horrible if I cut it short. But cutting it short has so many benefits. No more job. No more boss. No more missing my family. No need to rebuild my life after 20 years.

Like, truly, other than seeing my daughter again, I don’t have a reason to keep going. Playing games is fun, meeting people is nice… but I’m alone in a 700sqft apartment with some cereal and Dino nuggets, fantasizing about playing tag with my daughter, and being incredibly jealous that the man who replaced me gets to experience “my” family life every day.

Suicide is appealing because life is hard. It’s so much effort. I just wish people wouldn’t cut me out for admitting it’s appealing, or try to force me into a hospital. I just want to be heard, not “helped.”

These studies presume that suicide is treatable, and that it’s a “thing” that can be “fixed”. But it often isn’t. You want to rebuild my life for me and go to work every day? I’d give anything to be on autopilot in my own head, and just be asleep.

I’m doing a little better. It’s just really hard, you know? I wish I could say “hey, I’ve had a good life. I’ve done a bunch of cool things. I’d like to call it quits please” without it being sacrilege.

Anyway. I wish all of you a great night. Hug your kids or your SO for me.

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#19

The article mentions sensitivity, but I’m also curious about this method’s specificity too…

Yes it sounds like people came in at high risk of suicide and then they gave them an app that surveyed them and would predict they were going to commit suicide. Given they were at high risk for suicide attempts, how does this compare to just predicting the people would always try to commit suicide in the following week?

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#20
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh, sounds like a prediction to me? It’s not “not a prediction” just because the prediction is not made on a certain type of data.

Oh it is a scientific prediction for sure. I am just saying that if a layperson were told, "I have invented a machine that can accurately predict when someone is going to do Z!", but then, while researching the technology behind how such a prediction is possible, turns out the machine simply has been repeatedly asking the person how likely it is they will be doing Z, how much they think about Z, etc, then the laypers…

What is a better term or qualification they could have used?
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