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its annoying that robots are going to take intellectual jobs before physical ones. it feels way more likely for my project manager to become an agent before the lady that makes me a burrito at chipotle.
Well doesn't it make sense to replace the more expensive worker first?
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> AI drones can’t wipe out humanity without being able to replicate. Totally agree, and it should be pretty trivially easy to see how they can do that. One of the authors of the independent METR report about the Hugging Face incident put it like this: > Compared to these reward hacks from six months ago, this incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover, routing through first taking ove…
If you think we’re 10-15 years away from self replicating drones, I don’t think there’s anything more I can say to you.
People much smarter than I believe we'll see fully automated, soup-to-nut factories coming online in the next 5-6 years. Here's one such post from Ajeya Cotra, one of the METR researchers who did the independent Hugging Face investigation: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai...
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I encourage you to read the forecast report "AI 2027" - it goes in detail on this. You can disagree with some of its points and conclusions, but it's pretty inevitable that AI will increasingly start interfacing with the real physical world through drones and robotics. Humans are already putting AI into drones that kill people. A Russian drone killed 3 civilians in Ukraine and the targeting was done completely using…
Missiles have been doing this for decades. AI drones can’t wipe out humanity without being able to replicate. AI could mostly destroy civilization if you gave it sole launch control of ICBMs. It could also cause a lot of damage to society with no physical presence. But realistically we’re nowhere near AI powered robots being an existential threat.
If alien spaceships with tech more advanced than ours suddenly appeared in Earth orbit, you would conclude I'm sure that they're a potent threat to us even if you couldn't guess what weapons or what technologies they would use to destroy us. AI more capable than us is the same way: the threat is the capability to invent weapons and technologies (including weapons and tech none of us has ever imagined).