OpenAI is killing it now that they are more focused. Killing projects like Sora et al have seen it go from irrelevant to level footing with Anthropic. Sol is so much better than Fable 5. Then we get Astra (yet to use it) few days after Fable 5.1 (which is very impressive). Codex is slightly better than Claude Code. Good on Sam Altman getting back to basics and turning OpenAI around.
Codex is missing a few things that Claude code has had for some time like defined plugin subagents and a few other things. But overall it’s fairly capable. The biggest gripe I have is that codex really restricts context window sizes and compaction leads to a lot of grounding work, and overall codex GPT is too literal in many situations - it’s follows direction slavishly, and when subagent reviewers are used, they ten…
GPT-6 Astra
791–800 of 1001 posts
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#792Earlier quoted context omitted.
Watch a chess bot championship here: https://youtu.be/7g-jN3DTkWQ?is=HV3cdcICIRMbswQ3 Then realize LLMs have zero of what anyone would consider intelligence.
I decided to reply to my own comment. In the video above, the initial moves are textbook. Then a position that has never been played is reached. At this point it appears to pattern match against a similar but different board and pattern matches some follow on board. The result is illegal moves and no ability to see checks, captures, threats, tactics. Which is strange because I’m sure it could give general advice abou…
imagine a hypothetical chess match between:
- an undoubtedly very intelligent person. in the course of their studies, they have read about different chess strategies, openings, etc. but they never actually played the game themselves
- an average person with a year of chess playing experience
who do you think is going to win? of course, you could give the LLM time to think and consider its opponents potential next moves, but this is a computationally expensive way to play the game that doesn't scale
which is all beside the point that chess isn't a very good proxy for general intelligence. there is a correlation, but it's very weak
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#793Earlier quoted context omitted.
Take it from the mouth of the creator of ARC-AGI: When we released ARC 3, I got asked, "when do you think a frontier model will saturate it?", and I answered "in about a year, though it depends on how much it gets explicitly targeted" That was 6 months ago, so the progress that Astra represents happened about 2x faster than I anticipated. I think the speed of progress will surprise a lot of people, and what the new m…
I feel like AGI's definition got watered down, and these tests do not cover the original definition, what is your definition and thoughts on aligning with what all of us understood from the original claim? I feel like this test is just helping someone like Sam Altman pretend like he implemented AGI as originally pitched for an IPO when in fact, he has not. Shameful. > AGI is essentially the equivalent of a median hum…
Typical result of venture capital and too many bag holders unfortunately.
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#794Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is the ARC-AGI-3 score with their custom harness? I'm guessing that is what the footnote is for? (per https://openai.com/index/how-two-settings-tripled-our-arc-ag... )
Our responses API harness just means we're using the default settings in ChatGPT and Codex, so it should more accurately reflect real world performance. We didn’t fine-tune the harness to the eval at all. ARC is reporting our score on their official leaderboard here: https://arcprize.org/leaderboard A fair ding is that the comparison with Sol is not apples-to-apples (which we footnoted in the blog), but it's because…
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#795huh?
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#796Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wouldn't "general intelligence" require so much more than scoring well (or even amazingly) on benchmarks? Like what about having some "AGI model" embodied in something (maybe humanoid), and test it by having it step in an assortment of cars and park them. Does bodily-kinesthetic intelligence account for nothing? Humans are intelligent creatures and can dynamically adapt to the physical shape of a variety of vehicles…
This is a big reason why I feel like even though LLMs are _effectively_ AGI in some regard, they also are a hack around what most people figured AGI would look like before the advent of LLMs. Humans can do metacognition, output multimodally at the same time (verbal _and_ physical intelligence go together to produce an expressive face while one talks), have a good sense for what they do and don't know, continuously ta…
(Very capable!) Embodiment, persistent operation and continuous learning are indeed things that still set us apart from AI. None of those are fundamentally difficult to solve, though.
More importantly, none of those are particularly relevant for being "intelligent": If a criminal threatened to kill your family unless you solve some difficult problem that requires only intelligence and you could choose any single person, animal, or AI to help you with it, which would you choose? Be honest.
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#797I have nothing to say about the actual model, but unrelated--why do so many of these demos include people buying things autonomously? Even if I did trust an AI to get everything right, it's not like the AI can read my mind. If I was ordering food normally and without AI, I would want more control over the process--looking over the options, prices, thinking about what I really want. People don't know what they really…
That’s exactly the problem I have with all this agent ideas too. Imagine you had a human concierge that is just waiting for your instructions and is as smart or a bit smarter than you. Would you just tell them “plan this holiday for me” or “order this food”? I don’t even trust my friends to get this right, why would I give this to someone else?
But my routine business trips in the CONUS with strictly defined booking options... let me just email an agent "Get there by meeting on day A, leave after meeting day B" and have it sort it all out without the drudgery of the corporate travel portal. YES PLEASE!
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#798The ARC-AGI-3 scorecard is extremely misleading given that it clearly states itself that "with [the responses API] harness, we estimate Sol would score in the ballpark of ~30%." but it shows a score of 7.8% for GPT-5.6 Sol presumably since if they updated the percentage for GPT-5.6 Sol to the score it would receive with the responses API harness they used for GPT-6 Astra they'd have to do the same for the percentage…
To each their own. Personally I will start feeling the AGI as soon as we move from chatting about benchmark results to learn that some lab just announced the discovery of tens of novel treatments for rare diseases. Maybe I'm too boring but it seems quite pointless to have this same prediction game every time a new model is released.
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#799I think the thing I'm most excited about is the increase in _user prompting_. If I give a poorly constrained/ambiguous prompt, I don't want the model one-shotting assumptions left and right. The demos of Fable/GPT-6 are impressive, but "real AGI" should act more like a collaborator than either a peon or overachiever. It's a tough balance to get right, and although this has been possible to achieve with additional pro…
Astra retains the best parts and overall 'grounded collaborator and executor' of Sol in my testing (harness: codex CLI); while being a significant leap in capabilities & higher-level thinking.
When you prompt it like a technical collaborator, I've found Astra to be extremely consistent in staying as a collaborator, and not being over-eager, over-achieving or doing work that you haven't asked it to.
When you ask it to one-shot something, or explicitly ask it to make decisions, it will of course make its own assumptions and decisions, and generally very well.
Astra is also excellent at instruction following and respecting the guidance and steers boundaries you have.
^OpenAI does not review, limit, or tell me what to say; opinions are my own experiences.
Re: GPT-6 Astra
#800Earlier quoted context omitted.
To each their own. Personally I will start feeling the AGI as soon as we move from chatting about benchmark results to learn that some lab just announced the discovery of tens of novel treatments for rare diseases. Maybe I'm too boring but it seems quite pointless to have this same prediction game every time a new model is released.
AGI would produce novel treatments for diseases at rates equivalent to what a human can do today. Which is to say, not that fast.
It is an open question to what extent practical experimentation/work will be a bottleneck for the theoretical work. It stands to reason that it is improbable that it will be the bottleneck for 100% of the speed of treatment development.