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GPU World

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Re: GPU World

#291

Post by jedberg »

ekelsen wrote: post #290
jedberg wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s important to remember that LLMs were trained on well written human text. People who write well are going to sound like an LLM. Especially if it’s a marketing message for a website. I’ve been accused of being an LLM multiple times here on HN too. I know you have no way to know for sure other than trusting that I’m not using an LLM to write. But it’s pretty frustrating that people jump right to LLM accusations.

Do you have any published dateable text from pre 2023? I'm super curious if you always wrote like this, because it is exactly in the style of AI slop. People say it's in the training data, but I haven't seen any good examples of clearly dated pre 2023 text that sounds like this.

I have 1000s of reddit and hacker news comments from before 2023, and lots of long form writing too. But as you point out, those are all in the training set, and in pangram's "definitely human" training set too.

The ones that sound like LLMs tend to be the ones that were well researched and spent more time on, not the off the cuff stuff, which is most of what I write. So it would take me a while to find something like that.

But you're welcome to dive into my reddit and HN history, or all my blog posts on the wayback machine if you want to look for one. :)

Re: GPU World

#292

Post by setopt »

megagpt1 wrote: post #233
_superposition_ wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most notably Paul Krugman Nobel winning economist in 98: "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s." Predicting the future is hard.

What will be LLMs' social media?

More or less the same as social media but for agents, perhaps?

When I want to book an airline ticket in the future, I expect my LLM agent to contact the airline LLM agent, and the two to discuss options and negotiate a deal on my behalf.

Re: GPU World

#293

Post by calmoo »

jedberg wrote: post #289
calmoo wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll be honest, i’ve never read text that is human written that reads as close to an LLM as your sample sounds. I think discounting Pangram’s accuracy based on that sample isn’t very reasonable. Really nobody writes like that other than LLMs!

Here is another example: https://www.reddit.com/r/ExperiencedDevs/comments/1pyjkuf/i_... Today Pangram says it is 100% human, which is correct. But yet I got multiple DMs when I posted it 8 months ago saying "stop posting AI slop!" in response to that comment. At the time, Pangram marked it as 50% AI. So to Pangram's credit, they got better.

That comment doesn’t read like slop in the slightest to me, so the people DMing you have a bad eye for it. Regardless, I think your ‘human’ sample is not a good indicator of the quality of pangram. I would update your priors a bit.

Re: GPU World

#294

Post by worldsayshi »

rbanffy wrote: post #282
pixl97 wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read more Star Trek then, the Peter Thiel world came first and the survivors made the Star Trek world.

And there was a nuclear war as well. I know that, and I’m happy it’s not often we explore that in detail or treat the “dark age of Star Trek” as something that could be normalised. It’s always portrayed as a barbaric time humanity escaped from through by growing up.

I find this idea that we need to go through hell to reach salvation to be such a common trope. An unhelpful one. It affects how we see relationships and mental health too.

Maybe we should seek out the good things directly and not act as if the bad things are somehow going to purify us.

Re: GPU World

#295

Post by rbanffy »

worldsayshi wrote: post #294
rbanffy wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And there was a nuclear war as well. I know that, and I’m happy it’s not often we explore that in detail or treat the “dark age of Star Trek” as something that could be normalised. It’s always portrayed as a barbaric time humanity escaped from through by growing up.

I find this idea that we need to go through hell to reach salvation to be such a common trope. An unhelpful one. It affects how we see relationships and mental health too. Maybe we should seek out the good things directly and not act as if the bad things are somehow going to purify us.

If we can skip the Thiel version of Hell, we really should.

Re: GPU World

#296

Post by DrScientist »

alexashka wrote: post #274
DrScientist wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was responding to 2 assertions, used to justify an argument, that clearly don't hold water. ie a replacement rate of 1 isn't some immediate existential threat, and that making arguments like 'species aren't happy' is completely specious ( sic ). If you want a wider argument - then the reality is the birth rate is dropping because when women have the choice ( via birth control and increased socio-economic independen…

> they are largely choosing to have less children If the suicide rate rapidly increases, will you also say they are largely choosing to have less life? Nothing to see here, just choices. > So by definition, given it's a choice - women are happier. So by definition, given it's a choice, people who commit suicide are happier.

Hmm - childlessness ( note this is different from reduced family size ), almost doubled for women in China between 2010 and 2020, and over a similar period the female suicide rate has halved.

How do you explain that?

Sure having children is still a protective factor, but the highest risk is amongst those that wanted children but couldn't, rather than those that choose.

Re: GPU World

#297

Post by _superposition_ »

setopt wrote: post #292
megagpt1 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What will be LLMs' social media?

More or less the same as social media but for agents, perhaps? When I want to book an airline ticket in the future, I expect my LLM agent to contact the airline LLM agent, and the two to discuss options and negotiate a deal on my behalf.

Negotiate? For an airline ticket? When's the last time a human did that and why would an agent? There's a price, and if you don't like it you go to a competitor you don't call customer service and negotiate? Who in their right mind would let an LLM set prices?

Re: GPU World

#298

Post by alexpotato »

setopt wrote: post #94
maxnevermind wrote: post #77

> Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'. What would this world be like? If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build u…

I disagree with this take. While LLMs themselves are currently unreliable, the work done in the math community on hooking up creative LLMs to reliable verifiers like Lean show that it’s possible to construct systems where the unreliability is suppressed. For now, that still requires experts to set up and monitor, but I do believe that in a couple of decades we’ll make progress on how to do more mundane tasks in a rel…

> hooking up creative LLMs to reliable verifiers like Lean show that it’s possible to construct systems where the unreliability is suppressed.

You can also have LLMs create these things called "programs" that are written in "code" that result in deterministic outputs when given inputs.

I say this with a bit of snark to highlight the point that both humans and LLMs can write code that is cheaper to run and easy to verify. I'm not saying Lean being used like this is a bad idea, just that it's just one end of the spectrum.

Re: GPU World

#299

Post by aw123 »

Sorry, but this premise is just poorly thought out slop.

The premise explicitly names an extremely narrow set of unlikely futures. The world unfolds forward from the present. It doesn't start at some arbitrary hyper-specific hypothetical future you want and you performing a bunch of mental gymnastics to get there.

> "imagine the future, evenly distributed."

Yeah that sounds like you just get disqualified if your story is anything but "we all live under UBI and receive our equal rations from the world central government".

If you want actual interesting ideas about positive potential futures, change the premise.

Re: GPU World

#300

Post by ekelsen »

jedberg wrote: post #291
ekelsen wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any published dateable text from pre 2023? I'm super curious if you always wrote like this, because it is exactly in the style of AI slop. People say it's in the training data, but I haven't seen any good examples of clearly dated pre 2023 text that sounds like this.

I have 1000s of reddit and hacker news comments from before 2023, and lots of long form writing too. But as you point out, those are all in the training set, and in pangram's "definitely human" training set too. The ones that sound like LLMs tend to be the ones that were well researched and spent more time on, not the off the cuff stuff, which is most of what I write. So it would take me a while to find something lik…

Feel free to post the evidence yourself rather than directing me to a gigantic pile which you claim mostly does not even support your point.
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