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The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

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Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic value may be real but the profits may not be. One thing that's clear is that there is no leading vendor in this space and there may never be one. To some extent premium models can charge a premium price but it's going to be a competitive market and the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI will not be able to sustain monopoly pricing.

That is much less of a systemic issue though. It could kill OpenAI or Anthropic, but it wouldn't render these large GPU data centers obsolete since whatever replaces them, be it open models or cheaper closed models, would probably still require a lot of GPU compute.

"probably still requires a lot of GPU compute" is something that would be very desirable to undercut.

There's a galaxy of potential AI markets that are local-only for compliance/privacy/deployment environment reasons, and an equally large and overlapping set of use cases where you won't be able to bolt a rack of thousand-watt GPUs on the side of the device.

What if the next "DeepSeek shock" is something we can run for non-toy use cases on our box of old Android phones? The GPU data centres could be expensive albatrosses very quickly.

There's probably a case that right now, the bigger-is-better paradigm protects incumbents-- a smaller model will always have a FOMO factor unless it can be proven competitive, so that leaves the playing field to those who can afford to train and deploy a new Fable or Sol every few months.

Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

#83
post #8

I get the structural comparison they are trying to make. But mortgages are not a frontier AI lab. They try to draw a comparison to the valuation of the real estate and the valuation of the hyper scalers in the markets. I would argue that the demand and valuation of a house is less elastic than AI. While a house’s value may continue to appreciate in the market there is an upper bound for the price of a house set by pe…

I mostly agree but at the same time the change in underlying value from opus4.6 to Fable has not been as dramatic, and I'm not really sure if a "better Fable" is something most people even need. To the point where a faster and more cost effective model is preferable

Many would argue that opus5 is a regression in value despite what benchmarks say.

Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. The massive amounts of GPUs being purchased have far shorter valuable lifespans than a house. 2. A model's value seems to be depreciating at an unbelievable rate. The most expensive top SOTA models (GPT-5, Opus 4.1) a year ago are far less capable than GPT-5.6 Luna. Compared to when those models were new, Luna costs 85% less than GPT-5 and 98% less than Opus 4.1. That's good for us consumers, but if a lab stumbles…

I feel like the idea that GPUs wear out in 3 years is as far as I can tell, generally unfounded. The GPU build out will keep pumping tokens until the cost to replace is less that the cost to maintain. It is effectively sunk cost.

Even if it is 5 or 7 years, houses last decades. Even cars last longer than GPUs. GPUs are a highly depreciating asset. They'll last longer than 3 years, but might not be very cost effective (tokens per Wh) compared to the latest AI accelerators that are available.

I wonder if it will be that the U.S. (and allied countries) will be using the latest 1-2 generations of AI accelerators, and if the 3-5+ year old stuff will be sold to Chinese datacenters since that will still be the most powerful tech we'll be allowed to export to them?

Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

#85
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Notably a lot of those companies went down, a lot of investors lost money, but the internet and e-commerce proved to be just as big as people expected back then, maybe even bigger.

Yes I that was in reply to OP making similar point about AI

Almost, but not quite.

Consider

https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ada65-c56c-499c-8eb6-008fac589...

I hate to say it, but the reality (AI, today) might be closest to PG's "intuition",to wit, it doesn't pay to be left of center-right

For "previous bubbles", I have a different, apolitical,take

Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

#86

Interesting piece, I just wish the author had presented the data and their thesis instead of making Claude vomit out 20 pages of trash around it.

What exactly do you/others feel read AI about it? I spend an inordinate amount of time with AI and this did trigger my ai-radar, something I’m otherwise very sensitive too. I’m genuinely curious what phrases/words people reacted to!

Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

#87
i think financially, frontier labs are going to crash. this is purely from a financial standpoint. the question is when, this article posits 2027/28. i need to better verify the claim. (its easy to be right, its hard to time being right.)

however, when frontier labs become financially insolvent (and they will eventually, the question is when) i think smaller local models will end up taking over. and i think there is a bet to be placed on smaller models here. the demand for ai isnt going away. peoples workflows would be crushed without it. the question actually becomes, who either purchases frontier labs, or what cheaper alternative replaces frontier labs?

Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

#88
post #80

TLDR: what determines if we'll have an AI crash is whether the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs provide enough money to cover compute for these companies. Without IPOs, these companies cannot survive 2026 and this will have drastic consequences for the hyperscalers, datacenter companies, energy companies, ... ie. the "AI crash". Anthropic: $100B, OpenAI: $150B (that's not market cap, that's what they have to raise with the…

There's always the option of a bailout
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