Is this $673B coming mostly from BigAI?
Or from individuals and smaller companies?
Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
51–60 of 116 posts
Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#52Sold after the price rise from this announcement. They can make the sales projection, but it doesn't mean they'll hit it: 1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve 2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now) 3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term
>Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve
Must be very clear that China’s undercut strategy, which is a well-known and studied tactic that they’ve used for a long time, it is absolutely dominating this point.
Right now you can LLM, code, make songs, images, and esp video on gaming hardware in your PC that would’ve been absolutely datacenter shit last year.
So the question will be does the scaling continue to benefit efficiency or ability?
If ability (needs datacenter storage and performance), how much better can the code get? How much more realistic in the images videos get? There are definitely strides to be made everywhere, but man, just like the bottleneck wasn’t coding, I’m not sure the creation bottleneck is rendering.
Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#53It’s crazy that their profit margin is above 50 %, before the AI craze I only knew such margins from drug trafficking cartels (supposedly).
Well, being best of the best always pays off. It's obviously hard to understand to people bad at everything.
TSMC could charge more if they also lent the customer money to buy the chips
Same with ASMl who are the sole company behind their machines.
As could millions of other companies.
This is an unprecedented circular debt gamble. The market price is not based on affordability but distorted by the seller.
Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#54What if there are no memory chips for people to build hardware with, using nvidia components?
Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree. The winning move is to organize, and stand as workers in solidarity against the owning classes, engage in direct action (including boycotts and strikes) until the ruling class changes the rules in our favor, or better yet, abolishes this godforsaken economic system of capitalism in favor of a system that rewards workers and not our exploiters.
The winning move is to continually deliver value and realize when the market wants something else than what you have to offer. Instead of blaming others, improve yourself and your station. Life is too short to spend it putting up road blocks. Create a new, shorter circuit path instead.
> Instead of blaming others, improve yourself and your station.
Yeah bro, just learn to code.
Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#56The way publications just regurgitate this stuff with no critical thought boggles my mind.
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Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do not short it. I repeat, do not do this! Do not play the game of capitalism against expert capitalists who have spent the last few decades rigging the game more an more in their own favor. In very rare cases may be lucky but only for a short while. The more trades you make the more the odds stack against you, and you will loose everything. In a game where the odds are stacked against you, the only winning move is n…
> The more trades you make the more the odds stack against you, and you will loose everything. In general this is true. Participation is not rigged with eg VTI/ITOT and VXUS/IXUS and a long enough time horizon. There is no case where one cannot participate - doing nothing means inflation will eat away at assets. I have a very brutish 50/50 international/US split (was 30% international before 2024 when Trump promised…
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Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or in general, short-term strategies don't work unless you've got the insider info
I don't know about that. I made a fair bit every time Musk opened his face hole.
And I made a lot off oil futures in high school thinking I had a plan, but it was just gambling
Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#59Sold after the price rise from this announcement. They can make the sales projection, but it doesn't mean they'll hit it: 1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve 2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now) 3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term
> Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve According to Jevons' paradox a reduction in resource requirements (improved resource efficiency for the same payoff) leads to an increase in demand. This stops working when demand for compute is completely exhausted, but we are very far from that. There's even some very silly predictions floating around (see the latest Dwarkesh…
Yeah, I think there's a tendency to underestimate how much demand is still gated behind cost constraints. The market for this is HUGE.
The PC era, call it 1975-2005, was one of the greatest wealth creation events in history, was characterized by the cost of the underlying commodity dropping mercilessly for the whole time. Each time it did, the space of problem you could solve with a PC would increase, to the point that by the end, they were both replacing mainframes and powering users who do nothing but chat and post cat pictures.
Could there be a correction in the short run? Quite possibly. I think an underestimated last mile problem is just the massive weight of bureaucracy and human process inertia. But in the long run, cheap, efficient intelligence is a new engineering capability that we've just begun to even explore.
Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve According to Jevons' paradox a reduction in resource requirements (improved resource efficiency for the same payoff) leads to an increase in demand. This stops working when demand for compute is completely exhausted, but we are very far from that. There's even some very silly predictions floating around (see the latest Dwarkesh…
Yeah, I think there's a tendency to underestimate how much demand is still gated behind cost constraints. The market for this is HUGE. The PC era, call it 1975-2005, was one of the greatest wealth creation events in history, was characterized by the cost of the underlying commodity dropping mercilessly for the whole time. Each time it did, the space of problem you could solve with a PC would increase, to the point th…
> The market for this is HUGE.
Source(s)?