41–50 of 116 posts
It’s crazy that their profit margin is above 50 %, before the AI craze I only knew such margins from drug trafficking cartels (supposedly).
It's obviously hard to understand to people bad at everything.
Sold after the price rise from this announcement. They can make the sales projection, but it doesn't mean they'll hit it: 1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve 2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now) 3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term
According to Jevons' paradox a reduction in resource requirements (improved resource efficiency for the same payoff) leads to an increase in demand. This stops working when demand for compute is completely exhausted, but we are very far from that. There's even some very silly predictions floating around (see the latest Dwarkesh Patel podcast) that say compute will soon be most of the economy, even dictating market interest rates. Now, that has to be wrong, but the directional outlook is closer to correct than "very small and efficient models mean there will be ~0 demand for HPC-like compute".
Sold after the price rise from this announcement. They can make the sales projection, but it doesn't mean they'll hit it: 1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve 2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now) 3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term
Every quarter I see a similar analysis, similar projection. Yet, they keep posting these insane numbers. Everyone knows it’s a bubble, the problem is determining the top. Nvidia is continuously showing the top is far far higher than everyone imagines.
The way publications just regurgitate this stuff with no critical thought boggles my mind.
It’s mutual dependency unfortunately, and will remain that way whilst there are shareholders and investors who own the publications and seek only ongoing returns
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s a shitty advice (the one about not playing, not the one about not buying shorts). The winning move is to have diversified longs with long horizon. That’s all it takes to participate in profits from “rigged” system.
Or in general, short-term strategies don't work unless you've got the insider info
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Short it. NVDA is the most liquid market in history.
Do not short it. I repeat, do not do this! Do not play the game of capitalism against expert capitalists who have spent the last few decades rigging the game more an more in their own favor. In very rare cases may be lucky but only for a short while. The more trades you make the more the odds stack against you, and you will loose everything. In a game where the odds are stacked against you, the only winning move is n…
In general this is true. Participation is not rigged with eg VTI/ITOT and VXUS/IXUS and a long enough time horizon.
There is no case where one cannot participate - doing nothing means inflation will eat away at assets.
I have a very brutish 50/50 international/US split (was 30% international before 2024 when Trump promised to destroy the US economy and started to act on that...). Each quarterly equity vest I put more in, and realize capital "losses" while buying the near equivalent security when there is an opportunity to do so.
It’s crazy that their profit margin is above 50 %, before the AI craze I only knew such margins from drug trafficking cartels (supposedly).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree. The winning move is to organize, and stand as workers in solidarity against the owning classes, engage in direct action (including boycotts and strikes) until the ruling class changes the rules in our favor, or better yet, abolishes this godforsaken economic system of capitalism in favor of a system that rewards workers and not our exploiters.
The winning move is to continually deliver value and realize when the market wants something else than what you have to offer. Instead of blaming others, improve yourself and your station. Life is too short to spend it putting up road blocks. Create a new, shorter circuit path instead.