Live data from Hacker News

The turbulent AI era is here

gatesnotes.com

111–120 of 242 posts

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#111
post #14

I've tried to type this up a couple times, each time backing out because at the end of the day, I really don't give a rats fart about anything Gates has to say. I just wish he would disappear.

Ignoring Gates, what do you suggest as solutions to the problem at hand?

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is planning to leverage AI with significant capital expenditures: > The Gates Foundation has 19 years left of the 20 years in which it will spend its remaining $200 billion. AI will help it achieve its ambitious goals by both accelerating the discovery of vaccines and medicines for HIV, TB, malaria, and malnutrition and helping the healthcare workforce and patients know how to use those tools. The foundation’s goa…

Ending poverty is a purely mechanical problem, with very straightforward solutions if you have robots that can do any mechanical task. You don't need to give anyone a job, you just need to give them food and shelter. (Ideally also medicine, but it sounds like that part at least he's thinking about, although again, perhaps not for anyone who doesn't already have it.) Curing diseases and making people feel fulfilled ar…

Sound very much like a Resource Based Economy. Back when discussion of the future and futurology was small and hopeful, that was one the well sought after goals. Now cynicism has destroyed that, and we're left to deal with the ashes.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#113
post #97
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that doesn't make sense. How can you evaluate if craze is warranted without evaluating underlying technology?

I’m very familiar with both technologies, but it’s not what my comment was about. The crypto craze would have been the same if we would have ended with some actual use cases for cryptocurrencies. The level of frenzy was completely out of proportion, very aggressive, with that same attitude of „we will impose something on you, change the world, you will be left behind and stay poor forever for having not been a believ…

The thing is - with AI the position that everything will change is reasonable, with crypto not.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>end hunger and homelessness with a one-time capital expenditure? A significant percentage of the world's hungry live under warlords, militias and dictatorships that would simply kill anyone trying to peacefully give their subjects food. Unless you're proposing AI military interventionism, you cannot fix this. Homelessness on the other hand is mostly a mental health and drug addiction problem. Fixing it, in many case…

> Homelessness on the other hand is mostly a mental health and drug addiction problem No it's not. It's not a coincidence that homelessness only skyrocketed at the same time housing price took off to the point even professionals are spending half of their salary on rent. And if you look at the statistics you'll see addiction is a widespread issue but homelessness is not — WV and NM has some of the worst overdose deat…

Exactly, I'd imagine that if I were homeless, I'd probably do drugs just to not have to deal with my unimaginable circumstances.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#115

If AI is really that powerful, shouldn't someone like Gates be able to end hunger and homelessness with a one-time capital expenditure? Somehow "give people jobs" is the primary problem he wants to solve, not ending poverty. It borderline seems like he's most worried about maintaining the working poor as a valuable societal institution.

Gates is worth about $100B, Elon Musk about $850B. Let's call it $1T altogether. That would be at most about $115 per human on Earth (~8.5B humans). Not sure that is sufficient to "end hunger and homelessness."

Those numbers are all funny money numbers. Neither could liquidate that and not fuck the rest of the world altogether.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#117

I feel this is merely stating the obvious. It goes back to the industrial revolution and every revolution before and after. There was a point where they thought a majority of people would be working as switchboard operators and then telephone switching came along. Horses to cars, etc. Jobs transition, new space is created, people are caught in tbe crossfire of supply and demand curves. Incan agree the bullwhip of thi…

If AI would become better at cognitive work than humans, I don't really see what new jobs would be created.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#118
post #102

I feel this is merely stating the obvious. It goes back to the industrial revolution and every revolution before and after. There was a point where they thought a majority of people would be working as switchboard operators and then telephone switching came along. Horses to cars, etc. Jobs transition, new space is created, people are caught in tbe crossfire of supply and demand curves. Incan agree the bullwhip of thi…

> When the data fed into an AI model is based on real data you can get predictability. When the AI inputs start coming from the AI outputs the wobble is introduced which results inevitably into delirium. This is asserted without evidence. There is absolutely no proof that AI requires humans in the loop to function or improve itself. Compare it with Deepmind's go-playing program, AlphaGo, which mainly involved trainin…

You have no evidence that self improvement can work at generalized tasks. Go is a simple game with a clear win condition, but deep strategy and near infinite permutations of how a game plays out. Winning a game of Go is a task well suited to machine learning.

One might say you are engaging in wishful thinking by believing it’ll just continue to work across all domains. The world is much bigger than a Go board.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#119
post #102

I feel this is merely stating the obvious. It goes back to the industrial revolution and every revolution before and after. There was a point where they thought a majority of people would be working as switchboard operators and then telephone switching came along. Horses to cars, etc. Jobs transition, new space is created, people are caught in tbe crossfire of supply and demand curves. Incan agree the bullwhip of thi…

> When the data fed into an AI model is based on real data you can get predictability. When the AI inputs start coming from the AI outputs the wobble is introduced which results inevitably into delirium. This is asserted without evidence. There is absolutely no proof that AI requires humans in the loop to function or improve itself. Compare it with Deepmind's go-playing program, AlphaGo, which mainly involved trainin…

>>When the AI inputs start coming from the AI outputs the wobble is introduced which results inevitably into delirium.

>This is asserted without evidence. There is absolutely no proof that AI requires humans in the loop to function or improve itself.

Nope, it's actually fairly well established.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11269175/

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#120
post #55

All of this is truly bizarre, I hope that we can make sense of this craze in the future. Maybe it will be seen similarly to the dancing crazes of the Middle Ages.

I think it will be seen similar to the crypto craze to be honest. People on this very site, with an actual reputation, were telling us non stop how we were losers who were going to be left behind and stay poor. They never had to apologize for being obnoxious when that didn’t happen

I spent about $200 on openai tokens today to solve a seriously hard distributed systems problem that would have taken me probably three weeks to understand, let alone fix.

Crypto only ever allowed me to buy drugs over the internet. I'm not really buying this argument.

Post reply on HN