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The turbulent AI era is here

gatesnotes.com

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Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#81

Post by azan_ »

Krei-se wrote: post #79
azan_ wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing AI to crypto makes zero sense. We get tremendous use from AI right now, while 2 decades after invention of crypto there are still basically zero legitimate use cases. I repeat - the utility of AI is not some hypothetical but something that happens right now at very large scale (so please don't reply with something in line "well, crypto was supposed to have lots of uses also").

where? All i see is getting bugged with slop and for learning i returned to textbooks. Even code i get from it is stuff i would earlier copy paste from SO. After 2 years i feel mostly distracted by it. There are usecases ofc but encountering a chatbot or AI written posts, software, etc. is still a negative.

Literally everywhere. I'm running a scientific project where I've got to inspect large amount of whole-body MRI segmentations. The software available on market is very clunky for doing that, so I've asked Claude to write one perfectly tailored for my use case. With all the helper functions I've asked it to implement, the software sped up reviews >4x. And I couldn't write it myself.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#82

Post by WhompingWindows »

azan_ wrote: post #59
lukeschlather wrote: post #15

If AI is really that powerful, shouldn't someone like Gates be able to end hunger and homelessness with a one-time capital expenditure? Somehow "give people jobs" is the primary problem he wants to solve, not ending poverty. It borderline seems like he's most worried about maintaining the working poor as a valuable societal institution.

> It borderline seems like he's most worried about maintaining the working poor as a valuable societal institution. I wonder how the hell did you arrive at this conclusion from this text.

They probably didn't read it. The Parent comment suggests Bill is saying AI is wildly powerful, more precisely Parent comment is implying Bill has ulterior motives because AI isn't that powerful yet as he fear-mongers.

The actual text Bill wrote is more about highlighting upcoming problems and convincing governments to work together on potential harms coming soon.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#83

Post by mcnichol »

I feel this is merely stating the obvious.

It goes back to the industrial revolution and every revolution before and after. There was a point where they thought a majority of people would be working as switchboard operators and then telephone switching came along. Horses to cars, etc.

Jobs transition, new space is created, people are caught in tbe crossfire of supply and demand curves. Incan agree the bullwhip of this one is going to be aggressive.

I think it is a mistake to bet on AI as a driver of meaningful growth in a commercial capacity in the current state. When the data fed into an AI model is based on real data you can get predictability. When the AI inputs start coming from the AI outputs the wobble is introduced which results inevitably into delirium.

I think the world at large is "learning on the job" what data scientists and others in ai have known for a long, several decades long, time have already known.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#84

Post by [deleted] »

AlexandrB wrote: post #12

I'm sorry. I absolutely do not trust Bill Gates. His history of ruthless, cutthroat tactics in the 90s is not easily forgotten and when he proposes things like international organizations to audit everyone's AI[1] I can't help but question his motives. I also don't understand what gives him the moral standing to propose a solution at all. He's not the fucking pope but a ruthless tech businessman with vested financial…

[deleted]

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#85

Post by Krei-se »

azan_ wrote: post #81
Krei-se wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

where? All i see is getting bugged with slop and for learning i returned to textbooks. Even code i get from it is stuff i would earlier copy paste from SO. After 2 years i feel mostly distracted by it. There are usecases ofc but encountering a chatbot or AI written posts, software, etc. is still a negative.

Literally everywhere. I'm running a scientific project where I've got to inspect large amount of whole-body MRI segmentations. The software available on market is very clunky for doing that, so I've asked Claude to write one perfectly tailored for my use case. With all the helper functions I've asked it to implement, the software sped up reviews >4x. And I couldn't write it myself.

I agree there are usecases, but image classification is not the hype. Still - that's great, can we get a link? Or let me guess it's internal, you don't want to doxx yourself?

Knowing medical software requirements, which might be there for a reason, i highly doubt this will see production.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#86

Post by pibaker »

watwut wrote: post #45
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s exactly the same set of questions and challenges as with nuclear power Nuclear power is one of the most amazing magical things on the planet but nuclear weapons present a massive challenge to social coordination. So maybe we should sit as a society and try to figure out how to manage that instead of just freak out and burn all of our own faces off because we can’t handle complex conversations. Why is that so har…

No? Nuclear never had those massive valuations. Did not hyped itself this ridiculous way. Was not forced down on everyone. And the vision of nuclear power was not "make humans obsolete". We did not had nuclearmaxxing. We did not had doomtrolling from nuclear companies.

They did in fact put radioactive elements in everyday objects back when it was first discovered. Wikipedia has a whole page of "radioactive quackery."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioactive_quackery

While nuclear power is not intrinsically anti human you can't really separate the public perception of nuclear power and that of nuclear weapons. Anti nuclear sentiment is a lot easier to understand when you realize everyone who grew up under the Cold War had went through nuclear attack drills.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#87

Post by threethirtytwo »

lukeschlather wrote: post #15

If AI is really that powerful, shouldn't someone like Gates be able to end hunger and homelessness with a one-time capital expenditure? Somehow "give people jobs" is the primary problem he wants to solve, not ending poverty. It borderline seems like he's most worried about maintaining the working poor as a valuable societal institution.

>It borderline seems like he's most worried about maintaining the working poor as a valuable societal institution.

This is the foundation of the economy. AN engine needs energy to keep going and workers are that energy. AI serves to automate a lot of that energy... but this leads to a side effect.

The side effect is that the economy is a self feedback loop, as workers not only run the engine but they also create the fuel that they themselves run on. If workers aren't working and AI has replaced them then what where are companies getting money from if workers can no longer buy things from the company? This is the fundamental loop of how an economy works... money gets paid to workers, workers spend the money and the loop continues and the economy self improves... If workers are replaced the economy no longer works.

You're addressing a flaw and an imperfection in the existing infrastructure (poverty),The article is talking about the very engine that maintains society itself which in theory can completely break if AI is introduced.

I don't know if it will ACTUALLY break, the circumstances surrounding all of this are very very complex that no one can fully predict the outcome but the theory behind it is legit and much more significant then a poverty issue.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#88

Post by AndrewKemendo »

watwut wrote: post #45
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s exactly the same set of questions and challenges as with nuclear power Nuclear power is one of the most amazing magical things on the planet but nuclear weapons present a massive challenge to social coordination. So maybe we should sit as a society and try to figure out how to manage that instead of just freak out and burn all of our own faces off because we can’t handle complex conversations. Why is that so har…

No? Nuclear never had those massive valuations. Did not hyped itself this ridiculous way. Was not forced down on everyone. And the vision of nuclear power was not "make humans obsolete". We did not had nuclearmaxxing. We did not had doomtrolling from nuclear companies.

I’m not sure what to say other than you’re entirely incorrect about all of that

In fact you could probably make a strong case that the US and USSR did NuclearMaxxx

It’s called the nuclear arms race/cold war and was the defining characteristic of society post WWII until 9/11

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#90

Post by AndrewKemendo »

newspaper1 wrote: post #58
egonschiele wrote: post #51

Does anyone else feel incredibly nostalgic for the time when Bill Gates and Warren Buffet were the richest people on earth? I remember feeling pretty good about the fact that they were trying to do so much good, and about the giving pledge. Things feel so different now.

No because Bill Gates was hanging out with Jeffery Epstein that entire time. I also feel like people forgot his insanely evil business practices from the 80s and 90s? Bill Gates has always been one of the worst people out there. Every bit as bad as Musk. It's a big club, we're just not in it.

It’s not that big of a club actually only about 100,000 people max

Carlin is God but that quote doesn’t actually make a lot of sense

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