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Fable and the end of the free lunch

dbreunig.com

241–250 of 268 posts

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do Western models censor?

I’m guessing they’re referring to things like refusals if it thinks your request may be related to building a bioweapon, or hack someone else, etc.

Some of this seems public safety not censorship.

By censorship I mean things like "nothing happens in 1989". By public safety I mean "no I won't tell you how to build a bioweapon for genocide".

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about censorship? > I will be able to use them forever Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers?

Everyone censors for their core jurisdiction/audience. The Enlightened West just calls this guardrails

"nothing happens in 1989" is censorship. "no I won't tell you how to build a bioweapon for genocide" is guardrails.

idk about you but i WANT the second thing, because I like to be alive.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#243
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot like humans, really. People regularly cite something they read, or quote a stat that turns out to be just completely inaccurate. But if you look up the thing, then you have facts again.

Sure, and by the same logic, if I was trying to cook a steak, I would not trust an arbitrary human to know the correct temperature off the top of their head; I'd want someone who I could trust had actual experience with the task I was trying to perform. The difference is that most humans are fully able to recognize whether they've cooked steak often enough to know the correct temperature off the top of their head, an…

His point was that, just like humans, if you ask the LLM to look it up, it will give you the correct answer. Just like humans, if you don't ask them to look it up, you don't know what you're going to get.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you making a serious argument that superhuman intelligence is a plausible outcome of training LLMs on everything humanity knows so far? Are you making a serious argument that it's not? Because you'll need to explain leading-edge mathematics advances that have come from LLMs, among other things.

Superhuman intelligence? Really? These leading-edge advances indicate intelligence beyond the level of humanity?

Obviously. Otherwise humans would have made them.

Also, you may have noticed in passing that humans aren't getting any smarter, while AI models are.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#245
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will all be winners.

Maybe - we'll have to wait and see. By my reckoning, there's a significant chance most software engineers will be unemployable within a few years. But I'm not 100% confident that there'll be a utopia waiting for us, as an alternative.

Ostensibly there is no reason this isn't already happening at large companies. I used to think it was an expertise bias, since the impact of LLMs is inversely proportional to your own ability - but I think this is also no longer the case. Even if you're extremely skilled, they can already greatly supplement, if not supplant, you on implementation and increasingly even planning/architecture.

So my new pet theory is that this is one of the few times we're seeing a positive effect from the heads of all of these big businesses being part of weird public (e.g. WEF) and private (e.g. Bohemian Club) orgs where they get to together and conspire to conquer the world or whatever. Rapid replacement of labor would be horrifically self defeating, because you'd end up not only tanking your own economy but having a bunch of angry and increasingly desperate people with a whole lot of time on their hands. That doesn't tend to end well for the powers that be.

So I think there's going to be a conscious effort to transition between this era, and whatever comes next, in a more controlled way than $$$ YOLO $$$.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#246
post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

"good performance", well no, just no

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do Western models censor?

I’m guessing they’re referring to things like refusals if it thinks your request may be related to building a bioweapon, or hack someone else, etc.

Much less than that. Anthropic won’t let its best model discuss my digestive system issues, or how to install apps on my own Peleton exercise bike.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#248
post #182
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as these models constantly keep switching up things like the temperatures at which a steak will be medium rare or at which temperature to season cast iron, you will never be able to trust them for cooking. My mother ruined a nice waterfowl for Christmas by listening to Gemini. And this is inherent to how LLMs work.

Not if you let your LLM grounds its truth in established facts. Otherwise they would be useless for programming for example.

They're only useful for programming because version control, command+Z and "deploying a new version" exists.

Take that away and you'll barely be able to make an app that display a pigeon riding a bicycle (or whatever you ppl are doing these days).

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US models censor and restrict more things than Chinese models by quite a margin.

So you choose bad over worse and pretend it's good

I haven't said anything about "good", I just pointed out that there isn't exactly an alternative to Chinese models if censorship and restrictions are regarded as bad for longevity. You can't really do better than the Chinese models for longevity; US models are by far the worst in this regard. So "What about censorship?" is an absolutely hilarious question to ask when Chinese models are presented as an alternative. Yes, what about it? They have less than the obvious alternative from US labs, and where is it you imagine you'll find less censorship?

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Evidence actually supports that capabilities are leveling off, and cheaper/faster is not really coming. Just log-linearly more capability at smaller parameter counts as they saturate.

Please explain why you think cheaper/faster is not coming? All current devices used to run AI are very far from an efficient solution to the problem. What you really want is a pure dataflow architecture, instead of a von Neumann machine. The reason people aren't really making them yet is that when you build one, even if you use SRAM for the weights, you are binding yourself to the dimensions of the model you target -…

And how are we going to build these things with current limitations on fabrication? There are only a few places in the world building 3nm chips. And they're under serious threat of foreign violence.

It's highly likely that over the next 10 years we find demand and loss of production further constrains supply.

Designing a specific model into silicon sounds like one of the worst possible ideas. No better way to freeze assumptions and limit growth. Software defined solutions dominate for a reason, because adaptability is key.

Models were never the answer. Eventually we'll get past the nonsense of observationally inefficient neural nets.

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