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Fable and the end of the free lunch

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Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#141

Post by olmo23 »

CJefferson wrote: post #137
geniium wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

This is why I’m trying to move to open Chinese models — because I will be able to use them forever, while the older Claude models which I genuinely enjoyed writing short stories with have now been deleted, replaced with hypothetically cleverer models which produce text everyone hates.

I also kind of miss how "unhinged" the earlier models were.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#142

Post by josephg »

eru wrote: post #131
petra wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that the winners would be doing stuff in the physical world. And there I think the winner would be China.

We will all be winners.

Maybe - we'll have to wait and see.

By my reckoning, there's a significant chance most software engineers will be unemployable within a few years. But I'm not 100% confident that there'll be a utopia waiting for us, as an alternative.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#143

Post by ShinyLeftPad »

CJefferson wrote: post #137
geniium wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

This is why I’m trying to move to open Chinese models — because I will be able to use them forever, while the older Claude models which I genuinely enjoyed writing short stories with have now been deleted, replaced with hypothetically cleverer models which produce text everyone hates.

What about censorship?

> I will be able to use them forever

Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers?

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#144

Post by [deleted] »

pianopatrick wrote: post #96
a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the downvoters: What magic do you think the human brain has that makes it impossible to emulate acceptably?

It's not about the feasibility of the technology. If "human brains become fully irrelevant economically" then that brings into question the entire premise of "share holders" and "financial winners". What even are money, shares, stocks, and finance in a world where human brains are irrelevant economically? No one knows, but betting that "share holders" will be the winners is a highly questionable bet. I would much mor…

[deleted]

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#145

Post by ACCount37 »

scotty79 wrote: post #136
ACCount37 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which are the kinds of tasks computers have been historically quite good at. It's impressive that it does what it does, don't get me wrong. But if you expect it to replace the likes of GPT 5.6 Luna, let alone Sol? Nah.

Computers were never good at math. They were good at pre-coded algebra. When LLMs started to get popular, they really were stochastic parrots. I was fully aware that they were completely useless (except perhaps for poets) until they can do math. And I was a bit skeptical that they will ever be able to do math. But they started to do math and recently they got really good at it. Math is the pinnacle of human achieveme…

Moravec's paradox begs to differ. Things that are hard to humans are easy. Things that are easy to humans are hard.

Math is incredibly hard to humans, but "proving a conjecture" might have a lower intrinsic complexity than "putting together a good joke". It's just that evolution has only ever optimized for one of those things.

Math can easily end up being one of those things that are less "hard" than they are "hard if you're a meat-brained hairless ape" - like chess play did.

Historically? "Pre-coded algebra" was thought to require a lot of intelligence too - until someone found a way to make simple logic gates perform addition, multiplication and division. Then it suddenly didn't require any intelligence whatsoever.

Don't get me wrong - the LLM achievements in math, both as in "solving unformalized problems" like VibeThinker does and in "rolling novel math" like the latest ChatGPT and Fable do are very impressive. We're come a very long way from "formal logic only" systems of the 90s. The AI progress we see now never ceases to impress me.

But judging intrinsic complexity of a task by whether humans find it hard is the most treacherous thing - so be wary of your intuition when saying things like "you can't do anything harder with your intelligence than math". This kind of statement has an awful track record.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#146

Post by stbede »

eru wrote: post #130
josephg wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Sometimes I wonder who the long term financial winners will be from the ai boom. It might be ram / gpu manufacturers. Or whoever cracks putting LLMs on asics.

Or perhaps customers / users? Just like Wikipedia put classic encyclopedias out of business, but wasn't really a financially win for anyone.

I won financially. Encyclopedia sets were expensive.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#148

Post by eru »

josephg wrote: post #142
eru wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will all be winners.

Maybe - we'll have to wait and see. By my reckoning, there's a significant chance most software engineers will be unemployable within a few years. But I'm not 100% confident that there'll be a utopia waiting for us, as an alternative.

Sorry, when I wrote 'all', I meant people all over the world (not just in China).

Individuals can still get unlucky. Just like a coal miner might be out of a job, when solar panels become effectively free.

Software engineers are a pretty small part of the general population. And they can move into general white collar work afterwards. Perhaps at a drop in pay compared to software engineering, but still pretty cushy by the standards of ordinary people.

(And if we manage to automate all white collar work to be done cheaply and reliably by machines, well, then we are in utopia.)

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#149

Post by eru »

stbede wrote: post #146
eru wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or perhaps customers / users? Just like Wikipedia put classic encyclopedias out of business, but wasn't really a financially win for anyone.

I won financially. Encyclopedia sets were expensive.

Your savings are real, but they don't show up in GDP or a profit-and-loss statement of any company.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#150

Post by rrr_oh_man »

ShinyLeftPad wrote: post #143
CJefferson wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I’m trying to move to open Chinese models — because I will be able to use them forever, while the older Claude models which I genuinely enjoyed writing short stories with have now been deleted, replaced with hypothetically cleverer models which produce text everyone hates.

What about censorship? > I will be able to use them forever Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers?

Everyone censors for their core jurisdiction/audience. The Enlightened West just calls this guardrails
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