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Fable and the end of the free lunch

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Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#161

Post by Tuna-Fish »

saturn8601 wrote: post #126
ForHackernews wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cheaper/faster is coming for sure. Model on a custom silicon: https://chatjimmy.ai/ 1-bit models that run on a CPU: https://github.com/microsoft/BitNet

Blazing fast...but terrible. Put Sol on silicon but will still need access to the internet...so it will be somewhat slow anyway

It's terrible because it's Llama 3.1 8B. It's such a crappy model because HC1 was a relatively low budget proof of concept.

The team that built is working on a better implementation.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#162

Post by euroderf »

rrr_oh_man wrote: post #150
ShinyLeftPad wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about censorship? > I will be able to use them forever Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers?

Everyone censors for their core jurisdiction/audience. The Enlightened West just calls this guardrails

You make it sound like the DNC.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#163

Post by penteract »

shawnb576 wrote: post #156
josephg wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can compare the human brain and LLMs on a bunch of capabilities today, and see how we compare. By my reckoning: - LLMs have better long term memory (they know more than any human) and more working memory (LLMs have fast, uniform access to their whole context window). - LLMs are faster than we are. - Humans have online learning (we can do simultaneous learning and inference), giving us advantages in many no…

Because LLMs don't understand anything. That's the tech. They can only predict what they have been trained with and fail daily at the most basic tasks. Granted they can do amazing things, no question there. But they are not "smart". For example, it seems that even at Fable scale, simple concepts like the passage of time or (gasp) timezones elude them. I live in UTC+10 and with any RFC8339 data LLMs are constantly con…

To me it sounds like you're repeating what gp said about the lack of online learning. Do you think that's insurmountble?

Getting confused about timezones does not place LLMs behind that many humans. (But doing so repeatedly does highlight the lack of online learning).

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#164

Post by dmurray »

Why are we not just in a free lunch moment but with harnesses, rather than models?

Right now a lot of people have a lot of opinions on which model to use for which task. They get better results for less money by judiciously switching between Fable and Opus and whatever else. Spending my time learning this skill would have an immediate benefit for me.

But on the other hand, maybe the harness vendors will just solve it in 6 months? I'll ask a question, something in Claude Code (or whatever we're using by then) will figure out the most effective model based on the question and the context and my apparent willingness to get it right. I'll get billed X or 10x as appropriate, and I'll be happy with that, because that's what I would have paid if I made my own choice of model every time.

Claude Code already does this a bit, sometimes it will tell me it picked Sonnet for such and such a sub agent, or some other detail I'd rather not care about. The best humans seem to be better at deciding what model to use than any of the tools is, but surely that won't last long.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#165

Post by trueno »

geniium wrote: post #41
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

this is how i felt about opus 4.6 i still use it it's just faster and does enough to be super helpful. i've used these later anthropic ones a few times but the word salad and slowness feels like it just opens the door to building shit that just stacks and adds on itself.

if deepseek and stuff are 4.6 caliber i literally don't know why im here i should probably just go sign up for openrouter at this point

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#166

Post by lelanthran »

ShinyLeftPad wrote: post #143
CJefferson wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I’m trying to move to open Chinese models — because I will be able to use them forever, while the older Claude models which I genuinely enjoyed writing short stories with have now been deleted, replaced with hypothetically cleverer models which produce text everyone hates.

What about censorship? > I will be able to use them forever Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers?

> Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers?

Do you think that fabrication will never progress (in volume) than what we have now? The hyperscalers are already having trouble paying the bills, they can't keep this up forever.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#167

Post by RALaBarge »

nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I ask DS4F to make a plan, then check it with grok/fable, build the code, check it with grok/fable, ship

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#168

Post by lelanthran »

a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #80
a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

For the downvoters: What magic do you think the human brain has that makes it impossible to emulate acceptably?

> What magic do you think the human brain has that makes it impossible to emulate acceptably?

If I knew, I'd be rich from deploying it onto a substrate for my own AI.

But that doesn't mean that there isn't something there - the current approach seems at odds with how flesh brains work.

I mean, you can power a human brain with 2x bananas for 4 hours, the energy of which might power an H100 for about 20 seconds. It's obvious that there's something different happening.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#169

Post by simonw »

drunkboxer wrote: post #154
adrinavarro wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I share this feeling too. The latest models, even if not necessarily frontier, say Opus 5, Sol high and the likes, I could keep using these models forever even if they did not significantly improve beyond this point. I also believe we'll come up with new ways of using these very same models beyond the mainstream chat and agent interfaces, as the bottleneck is imho in harnesses/environments and not so much model intel…

Do you have to give any special instructions to do this? I always want to do something like this, but any time I try I get so sick of listening to what it has to say, just long winded explanations of stuff that tends to go off the rails. Imo it's hard enough to read ai output when I can go back and forward between sentences to make sense of what's being said let alone listen to a continuous train of slop.

The latest ChatGPT voice mode is really good at being interrupted - I'll often say "no, no, no, that's too much information" while it's talking to stop and redirect it.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#170

Post by Kinrany »

dmurray wrote: post #164

Why are we not just in a free lunch moment but with harnesses, rather than models? Right now a lot of people have a lot of opinions on which model to use for which task. They get better results for less money by judiciously switching between Fable and Opus and whatever else. Spending my time learning this skill would have an immediate benefit for me. But on the other hand, maybe the harness vendors will just solve it…

Hard to inagine the final outcome being anything other than the smartest model + cheap subagents. The only problem with that is user requests being pasted directly into the model's context, but that's got to be temporary.
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