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Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

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Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#201

Post by kstrauser »

jihadjihad wrote: post #136
wincy wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s funny is before the 50s and 60s everyone knew you should cover up and women wore bonnets. That too much sun was bad for you. Laura Ingalls Wilder of Little House fame (I mention this a lot as I read these to my children as an adult, and they’re a fascinating look at 1880s America) has lots of places where her mother says “put on your bonnet! Don’t get too much sun!”. We act like people in the past were ignoran…

> before the 50s and 60s everyone knew you should cover up and women wore bonnets. That too much sun was bad for you. I'd say partly true, mostly false. As sibling comment mentions, much of this was driven by fashion and class etc. and not from some fundamental understanding of damaging UV exposure. Furthermore there was research that was trendy at the time called "heliotherapy" [0] where all sorts of diseases were b…

In retrospect, I wonder if there was a measurable effect on sun exposure creating vitamin D => immune system recovery, especially if the patient were otherwise not outside much?

Like, I doubt that fixing a vitamin D deficiency is going to cure you of smallpox or TB, but could imagine a path where it helped at least.

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#202

Post by hobojojo »

ardit33 wrote: post #144
ViktorRay wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I think you’re looking at this wrong. They thought too much sun was bad for you because back then tanned skin was considering a mark of being poor and pale skin was a mark of being wealthy since rich people didn’t have to work outside. They also had puritanical Victorian notions of modesty and covering up. There was no knowledge linking sun exposure to cancer or negative health effects. People in the past indeed w…

This is silly.... most of the world didn't live in england. All cultures (including mine), have a way to warn kids, or adults for not to stay too long in the sun. From normal sunburn, to feeling light-headenes/fainting due to heat excaustion, etc. In the winter was the opposite. (stay in the sun to get some sunlight and not get sick). So, they knew, and had nothing to do with 'class'. Also, they knew some sun was goo…

Pale beauty is a phenomenon across geography. What correlation a society works out is largely lost in the cycles of avoiding the sun being a relative luxury until you get expensive air travel.

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#203

Post by kstrauser »

pessimizer wrote: post #174
foco_tubi wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think this is correct, Black people still get sunburns

This is an illusory statistic because "black people" isn't a real category. People who self-identify as "black" have a wide-range of skin tones. Even a moderate bit of brown completely eliminates the risk of sunburn. You can have two "black" parents and be lighter skinned than the average southern Italian. I say this from experience. I am a black person who is not particularly dark skinned, and have only had the slig…

As a counterexample, my bestie is "brown as a paper bag", and he was convinced he couldn't get a sunburn, up until he did.

Unrelated, he also swore he couldn't get poison ivy, until he literally rolled in it to prove it to me. I found the aftermath more amusing than he did.

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#204

Post by mhh__ »

ViktorRay wrote: post #119
wincy wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s funny is before the 50s and 60s everyone knew you should cover up and women wore bonnets. That too much sun was bad for you. Laura Ingalls Wilder of Little House fame (I mention this a lot as I read these to my children as an adult, and they’re a fascinating look at 1880s America) has lots of places where her mother says “put on your bonnet! Don’t get too much sun!”. We act like people in the past were ignoran…

No I think you’re looking at this wrong. They thought too much sun was bad for you because back then tanned skin was considering a mark of being poor and pale skin was a mark of being wealthy since rich people didn’t have to work outside. They also had puritanical Victorian notions of modesty and covering up. There was no knowledge linking sun exposure to cancer or negative health effects. People in the past indeed w…

The idea that humans were basically retarded prior to about 1901 is a little hubristic

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#205

Post by Noaidi »

calebkaiser wrote: post #60
Noaidi wrote: post #50

I for one would like to see the data rather than a press release. Is this even serious? A press release with no link to outside twitter? I feel like everything companies, and presidents, say now is directly geared to triggering AI trades. The only thing they are looking at with this drug is people living one more month over existing drugs. THIS IS NOTHING. "The median PFS (progression-free survival) for KEYTRUDA was…

1. That's not what progression-free survival means. 2. I don't think AI was mentioned once in this press release. 3. This drug was approved for trial in 2014, so if it had something to do with deep learning, that would actually be a massive announcement. 4. The paragraph immediately following the one you clipped talks about Overall Response Rate (ORR) and throughout the release they discuss Overall Survival (OS). 5.…

1. That's not what progression-free survival means.

I was not pointing to PFS as OS.

2. I don't think AI was mentioned once in this press release.

I did not say it was. I said it was written FOR AI trading algorithms to read and invest on.

4. The paragraph immediately following the one you clipped talks about Overall Response Rate (ORR) and throughout the release they discuss Overall Survival (OS).

Someone noted this was an earlier study. The newest study does not even have data out and yet here we are, investing on a press release.

5. This is not "NOTHING" in statistical terms, but even more so to people with melanoma.

You are talking to someone whose father died of pancreatic cancer. "Pancreatic cancer has a higher mortality rate compared to melanoma, with an estimated 52,740 deaths from pancreatic cancer in 2026, while melanoma has a significantly lower death rate. Additionally, the 5-year relative survival rate for pancreatic cancer is only 13.7%, compared to higher survival rates for melanoma."

What they did for my father was worse than nothing.

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#206

Post by radicalbyte »

qlte wrote: post #134
ViktorRay wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I think you’re looking at this wrong. They thought too much sun was bad for you because back then tanned skin was considering a mark of being poor and pale skin was a mark of being wealthy since rich people didn’t have to work outside. They also had puritanical Victorian notions of modesty and covering up. There was no knowledge linking sun exposure to cancer or negative health effects. People in the past indeed w…

Or rather, linked to completely wrong negative health effects that were just “common knowledge” thus requiring no actual evidence like: People with light skin should always wear a hat that fully covers the head/face in tropical/equatorial climates (okay, good so far) or else the powerful sun rays will penetrate the skull (?) causing brain damage that will make you go insane (!?!?) Victorians may have inadvertently pr…

They were too busy dying from typhoid, cholera, "consumption" (TB + other lung diseases) and probably lung cancer caused by all the coal / asbestos.

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#207

Post by Noaidi »

anonymars wrote: post #71
Noaidi wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Your reading comprehension is way off. The article says "Each year in Australia, up to 420 people are diagnosed with acral or mucosal melanomas. They affect people of all ethnic backgrounds, and are the most common forms of melanoma in people with very dark skin." That is a discussion of specific subtypes of melanoma. You've turned that into a general statement about melanoma: > not all skin cancers are caused by sun…

5-year relative survival rates for melanoma skin cancer is 95%. That is all that matters.

https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/melanoma-skin-cancer/det...

The study data is not out yet, I thought it was, so I will wait untiul it is to comment further.

But saying in the press that:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-20/melanoma-drug-cancer-...

"Melanoma is one of the deadliest forms of skin cancer, with more than 330,000 new cases diagnosed worldwide in 2022."

Saying melanoma is the deadliest forms of skin cancer is not revealing anything and is a scare tactic. In 2022, there were approximately 60,000 deaths worldwide due to melanoma. A rare cancer with 18% death rate is not high compared to the others. The deadliest cancers include lung cancer, pancreatic cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer. These cancers have the lowest survival rates and account for a significant number of cancer-related deaths.

But I will wait for the upcoming complications and the worse 5 year all cause mortality rate in these patients.

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#208

Post by jambalaya8 »

jimbo808 wrote: post #10
tnel77 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why?

People were assured that COVID vaccine mRNA would disappear within days and the spike protein would short-lived. Yet Yale-led researchers later detected circulating S1 and full-length spike as late as 709 days after vaccination. They also left the public in the dark about the risk of vaccine-associated myocarditis, especially in young males, many of whom experienced permanent heart tissue damage. That is a massive ga…

Inspired me to reread some old papers on mRNA, miRNA, siRNA, RNAi from 15+ year ago. There went the day.

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#209

Post by root-parent »

GenerWork wrote: post #4

This is great news! I think people forget how anti-skin cancer protocols even as simple as applying suntan lotion weren't as popular as recent as 50-60 years ago. Lots of "sun children" of the 50s and 60s are now feeling the repercussions of only applying baby oil and are getting hit with lots of melanoma.

>> This is great news...

No this is insane news, the world is crazy and dumb. Must be all these LLMs. Stock up more than 150%, based on totally unpublished data and an X post...

- The flashy 49% figures are from the old 157 only patient Phase 2, not this Phase 3 trial. The phase 2 was open label, had only 50 controls, and its randomization was disrupted. Meaning 9 patients were reassigned and the final 37 were no longer randomized. Its primary RFS result was p=0.053 two-sided, with the 95% CI crossing 1. It also used an unusually permissive one-sided alpha of 0.10, and much of the later "confirmation" is just longer follow up of those same 157 patients...

- This phase 3 news so far is nothing more than a press release. They have not published hazard ratio, or confidence interval, their event counts or survival curves.

- They met the endpoint as used in the press release means nothing, until they publish the actual 3 data, so my money is at the end this will be a kind of marginal effect that researchers will struggle to reproduce for years

Another type of study that will take 2 to 3 years to validate or dismiss, in the meanwhile stock is up 150%....

Re: Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma

#210

Post by eli_gottlieb »

root-parent wrote: post #209
GenerWork wrote: post #4

This is great news! I think people forget how anti-skin cancer protocols even as simple as applying suntan lotion weren't as popular as recent as 50-60 years ago. Lots of "sun children" of the 50s and 60s are now feeling the repercussions of only applying baby oil and are getting hit with lots of melanoma.

>> This is great news... No this is insane news, the world is crazy and dumb. Must be all these LLMs. Stock up more than 150%, based on totally unpublished data and an X post... - The flashy 49% figures are from the old 157 only patient Phase 2, not this Phase 3 trial. The phase 2 was open label, had only 50 controls, and its randomization was disrupted. Meaning 9 patients were reassigned and the final 37 were no lon…

For what it's worth, AFAICT Moderna and other such high-tech biopharma stocks are way too sensitive to the news cycle and not nearly enough to scientific fundamentals, so I took the opportunity of having it up 150% to sell mine off.
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