The 1877 El Niño killed millions. We have better tech now, but also more people and more fragile supply chains. Not sure which side wins
Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
371–380 of 401 posts
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#372Earlier quoted context omitted.
Distribution is only hard if you have to find a way to profit off of it. Hundreds food programs of all sizes can do it, from the UN food program, to states of all sizes with food assistance programs (i.e. almost every country), to a tiny charity. Heck even a ragtag bunch of Anarchists can distribute food with their Food Not Bombs charters. The only thing preventing food being distributed to everybody that needs it is…
This is a problem generally with food aid, but in Gaza specifically there is abundant charity involved. All of the problems stem from the Israeli government telling trucks and ships holding that food aid that they will be shot at if they cross the border without permission, and then not giving them permission.
That's not at all what the data shows. Lots of aid was crossing the border, but during some periods over 90% of it was being intercepted, according to the UN's own data (https://app.un2720.org/tracking).
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#373Earlier quoted context omitted.
> this is the worst El Niño ever recorded at this point Your point seems to be to cut off his senectes to make him look bad?
I dont see how those 3 words change the meaning. If I could edit my post to add them in I would.
Timeframe changes, worst el Nino ever of worst at this point in time in a cycle which he actually backed up with data. And is expected to be worse than 1997 based on that data, so also consistent in his writing.
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#374Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are missing my point. The planet is warmer now, less stable. That makes a smaller relative amount of warming take us even further away from what used to be normal.
You keep missing the point that this has nothing to do with normal. Its a weather even which raises temperatures. The base temp is irrelevant.
The base is highly relevant. Base + Difference = Result.
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#375Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The nice thing about food aid is that no matter who seizes it, it's food aid. Unless they're literally lighting it on fire, its entire political power is derived from it eventually being eaten by somebody, and a warlord plus 500 tons of peanuts does not add up to a 500 ton warlord. No? Not at all? They can just sell the aid which means they can sell it to anyone including folks who weren’t the intended recipients,…
I am describing a region under broad famine. You are describing problems with government cheese, with directing food to means-tested registered impoverished people who live alongside the wealthy & fat. "Folks who weren't the intended recipients" - the residents of the region were the intended recipients. Literally the first people who make it to the truck and (hopefully) form a line, is how it's usually done. What's…
> You are describing problems with government cheese, with directing food to means-tested registered impoverished people who live alongside the wealthy & fat.
No I'm not. Your characterization is wrong too. Poor people tend to be more overweight than the wealthy and also receive more food aid.
> I am describing a region under broad famine.
Sure whatever, but describe how the rest of the world (not the US) should solve the broad famine you've highlighted.
> What's the economic or political benefit to spoilage?
If you're a local warlord it would be control or to ensure certain groups or enclaves are dead or weakened. Withholding food or other resources is a strategy as hold as civilization.
> If your intention is that you MUST disrupt the local power structure and you're willing to exacerbate the famine to ensure that, then sure, don't distribute food aid.
If giving food aid just entrenches the local power structure then it just turns into a new tax of sorts that has to be paid basically forever. I stand in strong support of the countries (not the US) who would like to do this. Go for it.
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#376Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a problem generally with food aid, but in Gaza specifically there is abundant charity involved. All of the problems stem from the Israeli government telling trucks and ships holding that food aid that they will be shot at if they cross the border without permission, and then not giving them permission.
That's not at all what the data shows. Lots of aid was crossing the border, but during some periods over 90% of it was being intercepted, according to the UN's own data ( https://app.un2720.org/tracking ).
Say this figure is true. That is because so little food was allowed in. If food was abundant criminal gangs would not profit out of intercepting and hording it.
However this 90% estimate is cherry picked. It is one report at one time, during a time when Israel was intentionally starving Palestinians during a genocide.
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#377Earlier quoted context omitted.
One positive is that solar (and probably other renewables too) prices are plummeting and are now the cheapest way to generate power - so in economic terms, I hope this trend continues and accelerates even more to the point where even fossil fuel addicts can't resist putting a solar panel on their roof. In the UK and other European countries, I see every month we're breaking records on the percentage of power generate…
Meanwhile, the US is paying the German energy firm RWE $1.2 billion to stop a off shore wind farm that was already under construction. Total payouts are over $4 billion to _stop_ adding electricity supply.
Well, that's because Trump agreed to do that in exchange for campaign donations from Big Oil. I'm still not sure how Americans haven't ousted him.
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#378Earlier quoted context omitted.
Distribution is only hard if you have to find a way to profit off of it. Hundreds food programs of all sizes can do it, from the UN food program, to states of all sizes with food assistance programs (i.e. almost every country), to a tiny charity. Heck even a ragtag bunch of Anarchists can distribute food with their Food Not Bombs charters. The only thing preventing food being distributed to everybody that needs it is…
This is a problem generally with food aid, but in Gaza specifically there is abundant charity involved. All of the problems stem from the Israeli government telling trucks and ships holding that food aid that they will be shot at if they cross the border without permission, and then not giving them permission.
This debate was pretty clearly settled after Live-aid.
Food aid organizations were highly critical of Live-aid’s logistics, claimed it would not work because the food just gets looted by the armed factions who will use it to buy more weapons. Live-aid distribute the food anyway, and yes, a lot of it went to the armed factions, but overall food became less scarce and fewer people were hungry.
I think food is one of these things we should just not fuck around with. Wherever people need food, it should be delivered, unconditionally. The food exists, and the distribution networks exist, the only thing preventing people from getting it is most of the time money. Getting food to e.g. Darfur is very expensive (due to bribes etc.), and very few charities can afford it, governments however can afford it, but simply choice not to.
But even outside of armed conflict, where things do get messy, we are still failing people miserably. Many earthquake survivors in Indonesia are now hungry, and food is not being delivered to them. And there is absolutely no excuse why the international society is failing them (except via capitalism).
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#379Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a problem generally with food aid, but in Gaza specifically there is abundant charity involved. All of the problems stem from the Israeli government telling trucks and ships holding that food aid that they will be shot at if they cross the border without permission, and then not giving them permission.
This debate was pretty clearly settled after Live-aid. Food aid organizations were highly critical of Live-aid’s logistics, claimed it would not work because the food just gets looted by the armed factions who will use it to buy more weapons. Live-aid distribute the food anyway, and yes, a lot of it went to the armed factions, but overall food became less scarce and fewer people were hungry. I think food is one of th…
> But even outside of armed conflict, where things do get messy, we are still failing people miserably. Many earthquake survivors in Indonesia are now hungry, and food is not being delivered to them. And there is absolutely no excuse why the international society is failing them (except via capitalism).
Incorrect. Capitalism isn't failing them. Capitalism is what enabled surplus food to be produced in the first place. Instead, it is governments and other international organizations that are failing to agree upon and fund the mechanism to deliver food.
Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
#380Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's not at all what the data shows. Lots of aid was crossing the border, but during some periods over 90% of it was being intercepted, according to the UN's own data ( https://app.un2720.org/tracking ).
Say this figure is true. That is because so little food was allowed in. If food was abundant criminal gangs would not profit out of intercepting and hording it. However this 90% estimate is cherry picked. It is one report at one time, during a time when Israel was intentionally starving Palestinians during a genocide.
> If food was abundant criminal gangs would not profit out of intercepting and hording it.
They could just intercept it and hoard it thus driving the price up or as a tool to recruit others into their criminal organizations.