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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#361
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, we have a massive grainfed meat livestock sector that in an emergency could basically all be slaughtered in favor of feeding the grain to people. But we also have recent history demonstrating that this will not be allowed to happen, no matter how much starvation there is in poorer countries, we WILL have our steaks. Not negotiable.

Distribution is hard too. It’s not as simple as “we have food and we are mean”. Look at how Hamas for example was seizing food supplies meant for starving Palestinians. Who is going to deliver food aid to, idk, Sudan and ensure only the hungry get it? What guns and soldiers will protect it? Who is going to pay for it? Other countries have a lot of money and excess food too - EU, China, Brazil. I would look forward to…

"Local warlord seizes food relief intended for starving residents"

"Local government distributes food relief to starving residents"

They're the same picture, it's just a judgement call on whether you see them as legitimate. Whether or not that's the case with Hamas, Israel & the US have ensured that Hamas's paramilitary wing specifically are the most legitimate of the local governing bodies, ranging from overturning Palestinian democracy when they attempted to turn into a political party 20 years ago and operating a occupation puppet government in the West Bank, to ensuring that grievances exist with regular provocations at holy sites, with embargoes, or power cuts, to literally assassinating not-explicitly-Hamas-aligned public figures who become popular in Gaza.

The nice thing about food aid is that no matter who seizes it, it's food aid. Unless they're literally lighting it on fire, its entire political power is derived from it eventually being eaten by somebody, and a warlord plus 500 tons of peanuts does not add up to a 500 ton warlord. Better: In some forms of food aid, it rapidly spoils, so its utility to the local power structure is zero if it's hoarded.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just pointing out the logistics of delivering aid is difficult with one example terrorist group doing so and that was the first one to come to mind. There may not have been evidence of systematic aid theft but that's not the same thing as aid theft. Nevermind that not finding evidence isn't the same thing as something not happening. But anyway, they do interfere with aid [1]. Them doing it a single time ever prov…

> I'm just pointing out the logistics of delivering aid is difficult with one example terrorist group doing so The IDF has done far more, larger terrorist acts for far longer.

Ok sure but I don’t have a requirement to use the country that has “done more, larger terrorist acts for far longer”, I picked the first terrorist organization (Hamas) that came to mind.

If you want to make your own post and talk about how Israel is seizing aid as a point about how difficult it is to distribute aid and how the EU, China, and other major economies need to step up, deploy ships, send combat forces in to ensure aid delivery, &c., you’re more than welcome to.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#363
post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Distribution is hard too. It’s not as simple as “we have food and we are mean”. Look at how Hamas for example was seizing food supplies meant for starving Palestinians. Who is going to deliver food aid to, idk, Sudan and ensure only the hungry get it? What guns and soldiers will protect it? Who is going to pay for it? Other countries have a lot of money and excess food too - EU, China, Brazil. I would look forward to…

"Local warlord seizes food relief intended for starving residents" "Local government distributes food relief to starving residents" They're the same picture, it's just a judgement call on whether you see them as legitimate. Whether or not that's the case with Hamas, Israel & the US have ensured that Hamas's paramilitary wing specifically are the most legitimate of the local governing bodies, ranging from overturning…

> The nice thing about food aid is that no matter who seizes it, it's food aid. Unless they're literally lighting it on fire, its entire political power is derived from it eventually being eaten by somebody, and a warlord plus 500 tons of peanuts does not add up to a 500 ton warlord.

No? Not at all? They can just sell the aid which means they can sell it to anyone including folks who weren’t the intended recipients, they can hoard it and not give it away, they can let it go bad rather than give it away, they can use it to recruit soldiers to repress other people so they don’t starve, they can use it to buy slaves, there are plenty of ways in which the food aid doesn’t make it to the people who need it.

There’s no moral justification or anything to say here to help you sleep at night. When a terrorist group, local warlords, whomever steal the aid it’s just bad. Trickle down economics doesn’t work.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Distribution is hard too. It’s not as simple as “we have food and we are mean”. Look at how Hamas for example was seizing food supplies meant for starving Palestinians. Who is going to deliver food aid to, idk, Sudan and ensure only the hungry get it? What guns and soldiers will protect it? Who is going to pay for it? Other countries have a lot of money and excess food too - EU, China, Brazil. I would look forward to…

Distribution is only hard if you have to find a way to profit off of it. Hundreds food programs of all sizes can do it, from the UN food program, to states of all sizes with food assistance programs (i.e. almost every country), to a tiny charity. Heck even a ragtag bunch of Anarchists can distribute food with their Food Not Bombs charters. The only thing preventing food being distributed to everybody that needs it is…

This is a problem generally with food aid, but in Gaza specifically there is abundant charity involved. All of the problems stem from the Israeli government telling trucks and ships holding that food aid that they will be shot at if they cross the border without permission, and then not giving them permission.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#365
post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Local warlord seizes food relief intended for starving residents" "Local government distributes food relief to starving residents" They're the same picture, it's just a judgement call on whether you see them as legitimate. Whether or not that's the case with Hamas, Israel & the US have ensured that Hamas's paramilitary wing specifically are the most legitimate of the local governing bodies, ranging from overturning…

> The nice thing about food aid is that no matter who seizes it, it's food aid. Unless they're literally lighting it on fire, its entire political power is derived from it eventually being eaten by somebody, and a warlord plus 500 tons of peanuts does not add up to a 500 ton warlord. No? Not at all? They can just sell the aid which means they can sell it to anyone including folks who weren’t the intended recipients,…

I am describing a region under broad famine.

You are describing problems with government cheese, with directing food to means-tested registered impoverished people who live alongside the wealthy & fat.

"Folks who weren't the intended recipients" - the residents of the region were the intended recipients. Literally the first people who make it to the truck and (hopefully) form a line, is how it's usually done.

What's the economic or political benefit to spoilage?

The local power structure is already a local power structure. If your intention is that you MUST disrupt the local power structure and you're willing to exacerbate the famine to ensure that, then sure, don't distribute food aid.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#366
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has seemed pretty normal here in central Florida as far as rain goes.

> Has seemed pretty normal here in central Florida as far as rain goes. We're defiantly in the rainy side of the scale. https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/products-services/data/statewi... As for this seasons storms in WCFL, every week I see storms that barely move - often just sitting in place for an hour or more. It's a change from the historical lines that marched across the state.

Interesting. Here it's been pretty much the daily 10-minute storm and not much more. Those numbers you linked would lead me to believe we're trending around last year.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Near as I can parse that question, I'd suggest you start with intro calculus and physics, look into heat equations, springs and pendulums. Level up into delayed oscillators, then look into those models with added noise. It's a big field.

Ah, “go and educate yourself” argument never ceases to amaze me.

You seem to know. Why don’t you prepare educational data and educate people instead of “go figure it out”. If each and everyone has to “go and figure it out”, I’m not surprised almost nobody cares. People are just tired of hearing it. They don’t even know what the correct question is!

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#369
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This El Nino is expected to be worse > this is the worst El Niño ever recorded Consistency doesn't seem your strong point, in language as well as factually! I stand by my point, this is currently not unprecedented. You are welcome to disagree, but as you keep saying 'We dont have the numbers' then you cant be sure just as much as you are saying I cant.

> this is the worst El Niño ever recorded at this point Your point seems to be to cut off his senectes to make him look bad?

I dont see how those 3 words change the meaning. If I could edit my post to add them in I would.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#370
post #356
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You miss the point, the warming of El Nino is relative. El Nino warmed the earth more back then relative to average temperatures than it currently is now.

You are missing my point. The planet is warmer now, less stable. That makes a smaller relative amount of warming take us even further away from what used to be normal.

You keep missing the point that this has nothing to do with normal. Its a weather even which raises temperatures. The base temp is irrelevant.
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