61–70 of 74 posts
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If you're primarily writing code yourself or meticulously reviewing the output from agents, then you're right. However, if you tried to have any of those models one-shot an app or do some highly agentic work, they would certainly fail. That's the future people are looking towards with these valuations: when its no longer economical for humans to write or even understand code, just let the models drive because they ar…
But.. what is it that anthropic does that cannot be replicated by open models teamed up with open source? Heck open source even has cheap AI to help write the code now.
Also, just because a model is open now doesn't mean it will always be. If/when China or meta catches up to the frontier, they'll instantly go closed source. China, the biggest surveillance state in the world, would love to have all user data pouring in to its servers. It's just a business strategy, they're not doing it out of the kindness of their hearts.
The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.
If you're primarily writing code yourself or meticulously reviewing the output from agents, then you're right. However, if you tried to have any of those models one-shot an app or do some highly agentic work, they would certainly fail. That's the future people are looking towards with these valuations: when its no longer economical for humans to write or even understand code, just let the models drive because they ar…
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Your comparison is wrong It's not an expensive car vs. any car. It's car vs. no car.
No, you are wrong. Or at least, incomplete. The comment I replied to said "I need Claude because it's better than no AI. That's like saying "I need the Porsche because it's better than no car". Making a "car vs no car" argument is not an argument for an expensive car. Making an argument for an expensive car, requires both car vs no car, and expensive car vs any car. This is what I was pointing out above.
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200usd/mo for Claude gives me tens of thousands of dollars of value. API prices are paid by companies getting tens of millions of dollars of value. In normal life money is the key constraint; buy this don't buy that etc. - whereas in VC funded companies the constraint is time. If you as a founder get funding and don't spend it fast enough you put yourself at serious risk of being replaced. When enough of the world op…
> 200usd/mo for Claude gives me tens of thousands of dollars of value. That may well be true, but the same tens of thousands of dollars of value can be purchased for a fraction of the 200usd Anthropic asks.... therefore why not? And even beyond pure monetary considerations, it often refuses to help as soon as its trigger happy safeguards kick in, can't debug a lot of code before it decides to stop helping IME.
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What enterprises pay for is all that matters. They pay insane amounts for a lot of things I would never do personally, but I'm not the target demographic in those cases.
Right, and it's often very sane. If you're paying $250k/year for a software engineer, it likely makes sense to have them spend $10k/year on tokens from the best available model rather than trying to save a few thousand with random Chinese models that may or may not be good enough.
Would be nice. I feel like the more you go towards the 3rd world (or tbh anywhere not in the US), the more this calculus shifts, probably all the way to underspecced workstations, no IDE licenses (e.g. JetBrains) and also no investment into tokens or whatever.
Also, 10k USD per year seems a bit low, I'm not tokenmaxxing but my non-subscription usage equivalent would be around 3000-6000 USD per month, though obviously with models like Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3 it would be way more sensible compared to Anthropic.
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Their purchasing costs are much lower proportionally. China has cheaper electricity and a more capable grid for the industrial type usage levels they need to drive.
Data centers don't really cost less in China. Perhaps even more due to trade restrictions and the difficulty of smuggling the chips in. Electricity is a small part of the bill.
I wonder how long it'll be until they won't need to do that due to domestic options.
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Is the market for the "rockets" enough to justify what these frontier labs are spending yearly?
Anthropic’s revenue run rate just hit $50B, in a market that didn’t exist 5 years ago and was 10% of its current size 1 year ago. They are, by far, the fastest growing company in human history. The demand for “rockets” has been pretty high and growing ever since they started supplying it. Anthropic and its investors/customers don’t need random internet commenter’s permission to decide whether or not something is wort…
I'm not the original poster but I find it very disturbing that you guys are SO touchy when confronted. Also, calling people who don't agree "idiots" is very distasteful. I would have banned you.
My thesis is very simple. LLMs are useful. LLMs at this point are too expensive. We're in a very frothy tech bubble where the inkling of labor being replaced caused their timelines to be pushed forwarded by at least 5 years.
Once the money runs out, subsidization will stop across the industry and we are headed for a VERY hard economic crash.
You guys are worse than crypto boosters. I've had to argue against those for at least 3 years, I think I'll have to argue against you for much longer.
And when LLMs actually reveal their true prices you'll all disappear into the woodwork and pop back out circa 2032-35 when hardware prices come back to normal and you'll claim "I was right all along".
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No, you are wrong. Or at least, incomplete. The comment I replied to said "I need Claude because it's better than no AI. That's like saying "I need the Porsche because it's better than no car". Making a "car vs no car" argument is not an argument for an expensive car. Making an argument for an expensive car, requires both car vs no car, and expensive car vs any car. This is what I was pointing out above.
My argument may be wrong, but I myself am just fine, thank you.
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> The Chinese companies will need to pay their bills eventually too. What bills? Deepseek has been profitable for long time.
Do you have a source I can read? All I see on Google are random blog posts mostly debunking that idea. Profit margins on API tokens isn't the same as running a profitable long term business, or bringing returns on the large amount of funding they got.