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Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

reuters.com

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Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#41

Post by formvoltron »

cadamsdotcom wrote: post #13
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

200usd/mo for Claude gives me tens of thousands of dollars of value. API prices are paid by companies getting tens of millions of dollars of value. In normal life money is the key constraint; buy this don't buy that etc. - whereas in VC funded companies the constraint is time. If you as a founder get funding and don't spend it fast enough you put yourself at serious risk of being replaced. When enough of the world op…

paying for API calls gives you no such deal hack.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#42

Post by formvoltron »

iamleppert wrote: post #14

I love Claude but as soon as there is a viable replacement and I get around to it, I’m gone. I have zero loyalty to a chatbot and when the interface is just text the cost of switching is up to my personal whims.

me too except mine is called Claudia and I think she is really sweet and understands me. ;O

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#43

Post by nicce »

dmix wrote: post #27
surajrmal wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What enterprises pay for is all that matters. They pay insane amounts for a lot of things I would never do personally, but I'm not the target demographic in those cases.

The Chinese companies will need to pay their bills eventually too.

> The Chinese companies will need to pay their bills eventually too.

What bills? Deepseek has been profitable for long time.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#44

Post by yen223 »

formvoltron wrote: post #38
surajrmal wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What enterprises pay for is all that matters. They pay insane amounts for a lot of things I would never do personally, but I'm not the target demographic in those cases.

Wouldn't enterprises rather run their own models locally?

Enterprises don't even want to self-host webservers, and those are about a thousand times easier to do than self-hosting an AI model

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#45

Post by AnimalMuppet »

bossyTeacher wrote: post #15
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

> Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do. What insane price is that? Pro is $20 per month. Same price as a Netflix ad free sub.

Are they going to get to $200B revenue in 2028 at $20/month? That's a billion monthly subscribers. In 2028.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#46

Post by rvz »

Anyone believing that this company will surpass Nvidia's revenue in 2028 is seeking a lot of exit liquidity to dump hundreds of millions of their stock after the first earnings release.

> The projection dwarfs the $47 billion revenue "run rate," reflecting the firm's current pace of business, that the company publicized as recently as May, and shows the scale of growth investors are being asked to underwrite.

Never do they account for competition, risks, delays, lawsuits and geo-political issues. Seems like this is massaged to get tens of millions of retail traders holding an expensive designer bag that is riddled with holes.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#47

Post by malux85 »

jrflo wrote: post #18
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

If you're primarily writing code yourself or meticulously reviewing the output from agents, then you're right. However, if you tried to have any of those models one-shot an app or do some highly agentic work, they would certainly fail. That's the future people are looking towards with these valuations: when its no longer economical for humans to write or even understand code, just let the models drive because they ar…

I'm not convinced that one-shotting things is anything other than a vanity-metric.

Maybe in the distant future where quickly building a visualisation to help explain some concept would be valuable to one shot quickly - but "One shotting an app" is ridiculous because app development (or any development) is never "build it and then finish" but is an interative process, testing feedback, user feedback, and even app-creator communication ambiguity means being able to "one shot an app" is pretty worthless

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#48

Post by 4d4m »

formvoltron wrote: post #38
surajrmal wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What enterprises pay for is all that matters. They pay insane amounts for a lot of things I would never do personally, but I'm not the target demographic in those cases.

Wouldn't enterprises rather run their own models locally?

While not today, very soon every company, of every complexity will run local models. It's not in a companies interest to hand over its domain expertise, data, and proprietary IP for a increase in productivity. Most will quickly realize it makes sense to run their own weights. This will be commonplace once tooling and training infrastructure is commoditized.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#49

Post by orangecat »

surajrmal wrote: post #8
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

What enterprises pay for is all that matters. They pay insane amounts for a lot of things I would never do personally, but I'm not the target demographic in those cases.

Right, and it's often very sane. If you're paying $250k/year for a software engineer, it likely makes sense to have them spend $10k/year on tokens from the best available model rather than trying to save a few thousand with random Chinese models that may or may not be good enough.
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