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Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

reuters.com

21–30 of 74 posts

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#21
post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

I walk to work and ride a bicycle in my free time, don’t see why anybody would need a hatchback or semi truck or build rockets. Idiots

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#22

I love Claude but as soon as there is a viable replacement and I get around to it, I’m gone. I have zero loyalty to a chatbot and when the interface is just text the cost of switching is up to my personal whims.

It's here already, called chatgpt 5.6 sol

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#23
post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

In many things in life it’s wise to think further than just what suits your needs personally

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#24
post #17

> "Could they (Anthropic) get a $2 trillion valuation, yeah they could and I just wonder if it would stay there over time" Can someone explain exactly how the market can in any sense support not one but two trillion dollar valuations (referencing spacex as the first)? (I imagine openai will likely be in the same ballpark) genuinely we're reaching "elementary levels of big funny number" in the market.

Well, if Anthropic actually makes $200B revenue in 2028 then that valuation is justified, depending on how fat their margins are.

With the (unknown?) blend of consumer vs enterprise customers, what do "experts" project their margins to be around?

Some notes from me researching trying to answer my own question:

> Wall Street experts and financial research firms project Anthropic’s current blended gross margins to be in the mid-40% to mid-60% range, with internal company forecasts aiming for a software-like 77% gross margin by 2028

> Anthropic’s revenue is heavily dominated by enterprise and developer customers (roughly 75% to 85% of total revenue).

> Premium Token Pricing: Enterprise and API clients generate 3 to 5 times more revenue per token than consumer users.

Net is estimated to be between 10% and 30%

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#25
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do. What insane price is that? Pro is $20 per month. Same price as a Netflix ad free sub.

Until they stop to subsidize.

They might raise the price, but I don't think they will ever get rid of the $20 tier. It is way too consumer friendly and likely has the highest percentage of users that aren't abusing their quota limits. A layperson will be extremely hard pressed to create an API key, know what to do with it, put money in their account. People want an easy subscription.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#27
post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

What enterprises pay for is all that matters. They pay insane amounts for a lot of things I would never do personally, but I'm not the target demographic in those cases.

The Chinese companies will need to pay their bills eventually too.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#29
post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

I walk to work and ride a bicycle in my free time, don’t see why anybody would need a hatchback or semi truck or build rockets. Idiots

Is the market for the "rockets" enough to justify what these frontier labs are spending yearly?

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#30
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What enterprises pay for is all that matters. They pay insane amounts for a lot of things I would never do personally, but I'm not the target demographic in those cases.

The Chinese companies will need to pay their bills eventually too.

Their purchasing costs are much lower proportionally.

China has cheaper electricity and a more capable grid for the industrial type usage levels they need to drive.

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