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Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

reuters.com

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Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#21

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

Inference time scaling means whoever had the most compute has the highest intelligence model.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#22
It's worth noting that this is deal that has never been signed previously.

There's a release from DoE about it: https://www.energy.gov/articles/fact-sheet-department-energy...

That's a horrible amount of gas energy generation.

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-in-talks-t... has more details. The whole campus build could be as much as $500B.

Would that be the most expensive single thing ever built? The ISS cost around $150B and is commonly said to be the most expensive single item, but that does include running costs.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#23

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

Nothing would really change IMO? 99% of users don't have anything like a RTX5070 (mobile especially). Even if it did, it still doesn't make much economic sense running a model locally vs on a datacentre. For example, I managed to just about squeeze a Q2 quant of Qwen 3.7 27b on my 9070XT. I get around 60tps decode (slightly faster prefill). _but_ it uses 300W of power to do so. At UK electricity rates of 30c/kWh this…

I dunno a lot of things said about AI economics sound like an IBM executive making reassuring statements about their terminal/mainframe business before the personal computer took off.

Like even if you run it in a datacenter in this scenario, you could do it on a cheap GPU instance in Azure, you still wouldnt need OpenAI or Anthropic specific clouds.

>uses 300W of power to do so.

There are plenty of people with phat electricity pipes in their on prem server rooms that have been vacated for cloud. Companies who want the benefits of AI but dont want the risk of sending their data to foreign API endpoints.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#25
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much, I have said it for a while now, Softbank and Oracle are the ones I would be worried about. Both of them have put their companies wealth behind this, if it goes down so will they. Others have played it fairly smart in terms of insulating potential issues.

SoftBank has always managed to squeeze by after every mistake selling some early huge wins Alibaba, Nvidia, arm. Wonder if they still have any of those left in the back pocket.

Indeed, Masa has more lives than a cat.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#27

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

inference is the cheap part; training is expensive. what compute infrastructure would train this mythical magic model?

Exactly. If OpenAI and Anthropic didn't have to train new models, they'd (probably) be instantly profitable and with good margins.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#28
post #26

Nvidia is turning into a savings and loan company that happens to design computer chips on the side. What could possibly go wrong.

The loans will just take longer to repay. There is a market for Anthropic & OpenAI, it just likely doesn't have the 200B profit each year required for the maths to make sense.

If shit hits the fan, the companies collapse, then Nvidia gets their money from the investors anyways.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#29

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

If you could run Opus 5 on a 5070 then the labs must have achieved RSI at that point

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#30

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

There’s no reason to assume frontier-level intelligence eventually collapses all the way onto a midrange consumer GPU. In fact, there are quite a few reasons not to assume that (information-theoretic constraints, etc).
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