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Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

reuters.com

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Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#31

Post by [deleted] »

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #24
jrflo wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if Anthropic actually makes $200B revenue in 2028 then that valuation is justified, depending on how fat their margins are.

With the (unknown?) blend of consumer vs enterprise customers, what do "experts" project their margins to be around? Some notes from me researching trying to answer my own question: > Wall Street experts and financial research firms project Anthropic’s current blended gross margins to be in the mid-40% to mid-60% range, with internal company forecasts aiming for a software-like 77% gross margin by 2028 > Anthropic’s…

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#32

Post by gruturo »

cadamsdotcom wrote: post #13
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

200usd/mo for Claude gives me tens of thousands of dollars of value. API prices are paid by companies getting tens of millions of dollars of value. In normal life money is the key constraint; buy this don't buy that etc. - whereas in VC funded companies the constraint is time. If you as a founder get funding and don't spend it fast enough you put yourself at serious risk of being replaced. When enough of the world op…

> 200usd/mo for Claude gives me tens of thousands of dollars of value.

That may well be true, but the same tens of thousands of dollars of value can be purchased for a fraction of the 200usd Anthropic asks.... therefore why not?

And even beyond pure monetary considerations, it often refuses to help as soon as its trigger happy safeguards kick in, can't debug a lot of code before it decides to stop helping IME.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#33

Post by gpt5 »

XorNot wrote: post #30
dmix wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese companies will need to pay their bills eventually too.

Their purchasing costs are much lower proportionally. China has cheaper electricity and a more capable grid for the industrial type usage levels they need to drive.

Data centers don't really cost less in China. Perhaps even more due to trade restrictions and the difficulty of smuggling the chips in.

Electricity is a small part of the bill.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#34

Post by rayiner »

tolugenius wrote: post #4

> "Could they (Anthropic) get a $2 trillion valuation, yeah they could and I just wonder if it would stay there over time" Can someone explain exactly how the market can in any sense support not one but two trillion dollar valuations (referencing spacex as the first)? (I imagine openai will likely be in the same ballpark) genuinely we're reaching "elementary levels of big funny number" in the market.

Apple has a $4.5 trillion valuation, and it just makes pretty consumer widgets. The global B2B economy is massive.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#35

Post by _kulang »

jrflo wrote: post #18
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

If you're primarily writing code yourself or meticulously reviewing the output from agents, then you're right. However, if you tried to have any of those models one-shot an app or do some highly agentic work, they would certainly fail. That's the future people are looking towards with these valuations: when its no longer economical for humans to write or even understand code, just let the models drive because they ar…

Claude is certainly able to make a superhuman mess. All of its efficacy still hinges upon good architecture and programming principles, which do not seem to be instilled in the model by anything other than luck

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#36

Post by gruturo »

mococa wrote: post #16
bossyTeacher wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do. What insane price is that? Pro is $20 per month. Same price as a Netflix ad free sub.

Until they stop to subsidize.

Let's try a thought experiment. It's not subsidized. It's not "worth" the tens of times it costs if accessed through API. Let's drop the subsidy word, they're selling you a product, and they're trying to sell other people a similar product at 30x the price with some excuses. If either (or both) turns out to be unsustainable, they haven't been subsidizing you, they just had a crap business model (or a perfectly good one, if the goal was an inflated valuation, an IPO and then a crash once the losses are socialized).

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#37

Post by formvoltron »

jrflo wrote: post #18
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

If you're primarily writing code yourself or meticulously reviewing the output from agents, then you're right. However, if you tried to have any of those models one-shot an app or do some highly agentic work, they would certainly fail. That's the future people are looking towards with these valuations: when its no longer economical for humans to write or even understand code, just let the models drive because they ar…

But.. what is it that anthropic does that cannot be replicated by open models teamed up with open source? Heck open source even has cheap AI to help write the code now.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#38

Post by formvoltron »

surajrmal wrote: post #8
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

What enterprises pay for is all that matters. They pay insane amounts for a lot of things I would never do personally, but I'm not the target demographic in those cases.

Wouldn't enterprises rather run their own models locally?

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#39

Post by christkv »

jrflo wrote: post #17
tolugenius wrote: post #4

> "Could they (Anthropic) get a $2 trillion valuation, yeah they could and I just wonder if it would stay there over time" Can someone explain exactly how the market can in any sense support not one but two trillion dollar valuations (referencing spacex as the first)? (I imagine openai will likely be in the same ballpark) genuinely we're reaching "elementary levels of big funny number" in the market.

Well, if Anthropic actually makes $200B revenue in 2028 then that valuation is justified, depending on how fat their margins are.

They are going to have to monetize their customers to try to reach that goal. So that means charging as much as the market can handle. They have a couple of problems though called OpenAI, SpaceX, Google, Chinese models and Open weights.

Re: Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200B 2028 revenue forecast

#40

Post by flyinglizard »

cadamsdotcom wrote: post #13
zackify wrote: post #2

The world doesn't make sense to me. I use 5.6 Luna. Deepseek v4 flash 0731. And kimi k3. Don't even need claude anymore at their insane prices for anything I do.

200usd/mo for Claude gives me tens of thousands of dollars of value. API prices are paid by companies getting tens of millions of dollars of value. In normal life money is the key constraint; buy this don't buy that etc. - whereas in VC funded companies the constraint is time. If you as a founder get funding and don't spend it fast enough you put yourself at serious risk of being replaced. When enough of the world op…

It takes a big leap of faith for real companies with a real P&L to hand out token budgets in the thousands far and wide across their teams. The ROI is very easy difficult to demonstrate.

I've been thinking about it a lot and I think there's going to be commoditization of tokens. No local models - the hardware to run at scale is too complicated for companies that are reluctant to even run a local file server - and not wholesale run to Chinese suppliers (due to IP considerations mainly).

I think the winners in the coding/office work space will be intermediaries who can sell reasonable quality tokens at cost plus. It's the same reason "real" companies don't hand out their employees fully decked Macbook Pros or don't provide $500k TC packages as a norm: they are fine with "good enough" and "good ROI". And that's not going to happen with Claude API pricing where it is.

Another field is API pricing for things that are not coding, like automated systems doing analysis of things. I think there it's a real race to the bottom, including - or even mostly - direct sourcing from China (just like business do with their real goods today).

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