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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#241

Post by xfil »

dgellow wrote: post #178
vixen99 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not going to do anything at all without money as a fungible exchange mechanism (a sometime measure of 'value'). Capitalists see value in things and try to generate that value. Yes, politicians and the rest of us have the job of regulating that process and sometime fail to do a good job. Do you know the right thing to do? I doubt it. You seriously do not see this as an immensely complicated issue? Finally pleas…

Money and value exist in all economical systems and has existed in some form since immemorial times, that has literally nothing to do with capitalism, an ideology developed over the past 250y or so

Also, our current system grossly undermines the functionality of our market economy. A lack of pricing for negative externalities will essentially always result in the basic concept of market failure.

Run inaccurate pricing of carbon emissions long enough and something bad is bound to happen. Same ordeal with cattle ranching & agriculture to feed it in the Amazon basin: >20% of the 55-million-year-old Amazon rainforest has been degraded for cattle in the past 55 years, partially because consumers don't pay accurate prices and producers don't pay accurate costs.

The unwillingness to merely partially solve obvious market failures via accurate pricing is a catastrophic hypocrisy in those among us who thump their chests about 'free markets' while conflating the concept with modern capitalism.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#242

Post by timr »

Noaidi wrote: post #240
timr wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen. Yeah, people have been "predicting" it, but the fact is that this is currently mostly hyperbole, driven by bad reporting and activist exaggeration. What is happening, right now, is that winters are mostly getting…

I went to both of those links. "Page not found". >Setting aside the debates about model quality, etc., surely we can all agree that predictions are not evidence? Predictions are warnings. When we have the evidence it will be too late. So let me ask you, what direction are we headed?

Oops. Links got truncated. Here:

Figure 11-9:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure...

Figure 11-2:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure...

Chapter 11:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#243

Post by Noaidi »

alt227 wrote: post #224
Noaidi wrote: post #6

People really don’t appreciate yet. How really bad this situation is and will be. They’re talking about 1.76°C higher temperatures next year because of this El Niño. Those are climate change temperatures that are not supposed to be around until 2035. So it’ll give us a sneak peek into our future. But the biggest effect and this is noted by many insurance companies now is going to be in places like India. But this is…

> But this is something the world has never seen and I mean that literally Lets not forget there have been bigger and hotter events than this in local past. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o... You may tie this in to climate change in general to prove your point, but this is a discussion about El Nino weather event and it is important to remember the current situation is not unprecedented.

This El Nino is expected to be worse than that based on the El Nino 3.4 temperatures we are already seeing. This is why most weather people are talking about it so much.

We do not have the same data for the 1877 event that we do for the last strongest El Nino in 1997. And this one is much stronger than that by far:

https://xcancel.com/BenNollWeather/status/208864941472211787...

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#244

Post by timr »

mr_toad wrote: post #201
timr wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen. Yeah, people have been "predicting" it, but the fact is that this is currently mostly hyperbole, driven by bad reporting and activist exaggeration. What is happening, right now, is that winters are mostly getting…

Go back and compare some of the earlier IPCC reports and see which bits have been left out. The worst case scenarios keep getting removed, and the best case scenarios are based on projections of CO2 emissions which are highly unrealistic. Official reports have been downplaying the impact for decades, while countries have been setting climate targets that they had no intention of achieving.

Arguing that the IPCC report is "downplaying the impact" because of corruption -- which is what you seem to be doing, without evidence -- is an implausible assertion.

The far more likely conclusion is that you're wrong.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#245

Post by xhkkffbf »

huijzer wrote: post #97
culi wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, we didn't have the World Food Programme in 1877 which lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. That being said, the existing energy crisis and fertilizer crisis can significantly compound the negative impacts of this El Niño even if we are able to anticipate it.

> lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. If by “us” you mean big corporations, which will then buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later, then I agree.

So are we supposed to demonize the big corporations for making a profit or celebrate them for planning ahead and making sure we don't starve?

I'm not so sure these days.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#246

Post by Noaidi »

timr wrote: post #242
Noaidi wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I went to both of those links. "Page not found". >Setting aside the debates about model quality, etc., surely we can all agree that predictions are not evidence? Predictions are warnings. When we have the evidence it will be too late. So let me ask you, what direction are we headed?

Oops. Links got truncated. Here: Figure 11-9: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure... Figure 11-2: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure... Chapter 11: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/

> What is happening, right now, is that winters are mostly getting warmer. Summers are getting hotter in certain places, but not at nearly the rate that cold days are decreasing -- and the evidence is weaker on a global scale. From the IPCC 6AR report, figure 11-9 shows it clearly:

Thanks.

Crazy that you think even these graphs, which do not include the last six years, are just fine.

Climate change is not just about it getting warmer. The problem also lies with changes in climate, the pattern of weather. Sudden changes in climate do not allow for adaptation to compensate. This includes human adaptation.

But it may be better just to read the IPCC summary:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-polic...

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#247

Post by mlvljr »

mapt wrote: post #172
ben_w wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many farmers are subsidised specifically so that food is over-produced in most years, specifically to ensure than in bad years people don't go hungry. Corporations may indeed be taking advantage of this, demanding prices so low that the farmers don't get the benefit of those subsidies. However: > buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later Is the point of a futures market. Futures let people trade a thing before the…

In the US, we have a massive grainfed meat livestock sector that in an emergency could basically all be slaughtered in favor of feeding the grain to people. But we also have recent history demonstrating that this will not be allowed to happen, no matter how much starvation there is in poorer countries, we WILL have our steaks. Not negotiable.

[dead]

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#248

Post by 8note »

WillAdams wrote: post #194
ben_w wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many farmers are subsidised specifically so that food is over-produced in most years, specifically to ensure than in bad years people don't go hungry. Corporations may indeed be taking advantage of this, demanding prices so low that the farmers don't get the benefit of those subsidies. However: > buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later Is the point of a futures market. Futures let people trade a thing before the…

No, the point of a futures market is to have a reliable supply which matches demand and allows everyone who works to produce and use a given commodity to have a reasonable expectation of demand and how production should be matched to it. Goldman-Sachs should _not_ be inserting themselves into profiting on the poor's daily bread. https://theecologist.org/2011/sep/13/how-goldman-sachs-start...

the point of a system is what it does. if the futures market lets a bank make money off bread, thats the point of it

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#249

Post by eclipticplane »

bluerooibos wrote: post #187
bamboozled wrote: post #10

All we needed to do was stop burning fossil fuels we really are fucking dense.

One positive is that solar (and probably other renewables too) prices are plummeting and are now the cheapest way to generate power - so in economic terms, I hope this trend continues and accelerates even more to the point where even fossil fuel addicts can't resist putting a solar panel on their roof. In the UK and other European countries, I see every month we're breaking records on the percentage of power generate…

Meanwhile, the US is paying the German energy firm RWE $1.2 billion to stop a off shore wind farm that was already under construction. Total payouts are over $4 billion to _stop_ adding electricity supply.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#250

Post by 8note »

mapt wrote: post #172
ben_w wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many farmers are subsidised specifically so that food is over-produced in most years, specifically to ensure than in bad years people don't go hungry. Corporations may indeed be taking advantage of this, demanding prices so low that the farmers don't get the benefit of those subsidies. However: > buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later Is the point of a futures market. Futures let people trade a thing before the…

In the US, we have a massive grainfed meat livestock sector that in an emergency could basically all be slaughtered in favor of feeding the grain to people. But we also have recent history demonstrating that this will not be allowed to happen, no matter how much starvation there is in poorer countries, we WILL have our steaks. Not negotiable.

rich americans will have their steaks.

poor americans will starve outside the walls

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