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In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

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Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#171
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Levelized cost of electricity. All the costs that go into producing from a given source (capex and opex) divided by the total power generated.

> All the costs that go into producing from a given source (capex and opex) divided by the total power generated ... total energy generated.

Good catch! One of my own biggest pet peeves too

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the end you have to replace those panels and nobody in your country now produces them or has the incentive to start producing them unless they not only drop the subsidies but sell well over market value.

You have 25 - 50 years. Put your STE people to work. CSIRO is probably a decent org, give them a Manhattan project? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSIRO

CSIRO and the University of New South Wales are the source of today's cutting edge solar panel tech. It's just manufacturing went to China and that is the challenge. It'll be met when China becomes totally untenable as a trading partner.

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#173
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Installing on people’s houses isn’t just about install costs (the numbers for which above I highly doubt). There’s a huge additional benefit, and cost reducing factor, that comes from installing storage where grid connection already exists. Instead of building out battery farms in the desert and piping the power into urban centers over cables like a power plant, you can install capacity and run it essentially p2p. Th…

We already have the "power pipes", from the power plants. > Professionals are manufacturing and installing these at scale. A couple of electricians doing 20kWh (average install size) once per day, with an individual inverter, gateways, etc. is not at scale, by any means of the word.

Those are transmission lines. Utilities do need to upgrade distribution lines and transformers for areas with large-scale adoption of EVs, heat pumps or other increases in electrical load. Localized battery and solar installations can help defer these infrastructure upgrades, if done by planning and consultation with the utility.

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#174

It started with a solar boom, many small home scale solar roofs popping up everywhere. Australia has a free trade agreement with much of the world, including China, and solar panels have literally dropped to 1/50th of the price they were in 1990 ($10/W to $0.2/W today). A shout out to the work that was done to establish dynamic grid pricing too. Anyway that caused power prices to reliably go negative during the day a…

I have made this argument several times that capitalism literally solves the issue of solar panels if the market allows arbitrage and true dynamic pricing. Good to see now a working example that capitalism is an excellent system of rewarding those who solve inefficiencies in markets

There were significant state subsidies and regulation changes to encourage home battery installation. That's a lot less "free trade" driven than the GP post indicates. Is that still capitalism being an excellent system?

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they put up barely any struggle against solar adoption They put up plenty. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S22146... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2024/o... As with climate change, there comes a point where the propaganda just stops working becuase it's impossible to contest.

What's funny is that Australian-born Rupert Murdoch has been far more effective in the US than in Australia on this front. The propaganda is still going really strong in the US. Talk to the population and 1/3 to 1/2 will happily tell you that EVs have fully failed and are being abandoned and will never gain traction in the future. And solar? Lol. Even the people who are saving money with it tend to refuse to talk abo…

I thought it was the opposite; it's blindingly obvious that everyone should be getting rooftop solar. The only thing holding me back is the need to work with the condo association on a new roof first.

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#176
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 50% price decline doesn't imply there's 50% less demand for petroleum. If 6% less demand is all the margin consumers need to get their supply, then price can drop quickly. It's all in the margins.

What is the best way to learn more about this, are there any examples? This seems a bit counterintuitive to me.

its simple demand and supply if you have 100 buyers for 99 the price will shoot up but if you have 100 seller and 99 buyers sellers will drop price so. Previously gas turbines were charging through the nose when sudden demand spikes but now batteries are competing with them and pricing them out

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or outsourced their pollution to a foreign supplier.

Carbon taxes collapse as they don’t account for imports correctly.

There is a solution for this, called a CBAM, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. One just went into force across the EU. It should appeal to US politicians, because it advantages the relatively clean US manufacturing base.

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#178
This works best in areas where cloud cover is consistently low, so solar power doesn't vary much from day to day. That's most of Australia. Two days of dark overcast and the load on non-solar sources goes way up. How much battery do you need before there's no demand for peaking plants? In some places, a day. In others, months?

I looked at cloud coverage maps. There are monthly and annual average maps, and raw data from satellites. Building a map of run length of overcast days would be useful.

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#179
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 50% price decline doesn't imply there's 50% less demand for petroleum. If 6% less demand is all the margin consumers need to get their supply, then price can drop quickly. It's all in the margins.

What is the best way to learn more about this, are there any examples? This seems a bit counterintuitive to me.

This sounds like Price elasticity of demand which is a measure of how sensitive the quantity demanded is to its price.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand

Re: In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices

#180

I've long thought that any country should buy solar panels from any other country that's crazy enough to sell them to you at a subsidized price. It's not like buying oil; once you have the panels, that energy independence belongs to you.

Grid and energy producers will have nothing of that nonsense. If enough people do that, they will see their business crumble and because they are an "strategic sector" they have enough sway on most countries to pass laws that prevent that.
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