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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#381

Post by nradov »

somenameforme wrote: post #362
nradov wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment makes no sense. There's no need for a larger money supply. The current situation is sensible (at least to anyone who understands basic finance).

I'm not saying there's need for a larger monetary supply. I'm saying that the world economy's 'value' is heavily driven by financialization, which is increasingly disconnected from reality, even more so as governments have gradually descended to 'stock market = economy' which leads directly to Goodhart's Law, and will eventually culminate in a 'correction.' So for instance yeah the US only has about 1PE (Peak Elon) o…

So what. The amount of physical gold held by the USA (or any other country) is almost entirely irrelevant to the real economy. It's a pointless relic of the past. We could sell off all of our gold so that people could make jewelry out of it and nothing would change.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#383

Post by leonidasrup »

samrus wrote: post #206
thelastgallon wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

> China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia) I dont agree with china having the same position as the FF exporters. Simply because with renewables, you export the means to produce energy rather than the energy itself. So in terms of monetary value, china will be selling alot less panels than the FF countries sell oil. And other countries can also manufa…

Coal in China has many applications beyond simply burning it to produce electricity.

Coal 2025 report

"China consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together. It also produces more coal than all other countries combined, and it is the world’s largest importer. This dominance by a single country makes global coal markets very dependent on developments in China, notably those related to economic growth, government policies, energy markets, weather conditions and dynamics in the Chinese domestic coal sector."

https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025/executive-summary

In terms of reducing oil consumption China is pursuing two strategies:

1. Electrification of transport

2. Producing synthetic gasoline/diesel/chemicals from coal.

"The sector last year turned 276 million tons of coal - equivalent to almost a year of European coal use - into chemicals, oil and gas, according to the China National Petroleum and Chemical Planning Institute."

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chines...

"China’s power sector is undergoing a visible transformation. Electricity demand rose by 5% between 2024 and 2025, reaching 10,368 TWh, yet coal-fired generation declined by 113 TWh to 6,294 TWh in a year, reducing its share in the power mix. The entire increment in electricity demand was absorbed by nuclear and renewable sources, whose combined output rose by 617 TWh. On paper, this reflects a decisive shift away from coal and toward low-carbon energy. In practice, however, coal is not disappearing from China’s industry – it is being redirected."

"Coal-to-liquids (CTL) and coal-to-chemicals (CTC) technologies provide the missing link. Using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, coal can be converted into synthetic liquid fuels such as diesel, gasoline, and naphtha, as well as petrochemical feedstocks including olefins for plastics production. China and South Africa are the only countries operating CTL and CTC at an industrial scale. China alone consumes hundreds of millions of tonnes of coal annually (380 million tonnes as reported by the IEA) for chemical and synthetic fuel production. It is important to note that the largest part of this demand goes into the CTC industry. China has effectively replaced gas as its main feedstock for ammonia and methanol production with raw coal, to the extent that roughly 80% of these chemicals’ output is now fed by coal."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinas-Renewable-Boom-Masks...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#384

Post by Animats »

pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

This is not yet about making the renminbi a full reserve currency. China still imposes exchange controls. There's historical reluctance in China to expose the internal economy to external market forces. And a lot of rich people in China who would like to get more money out. This lack of free convertibility limits the use of the renminbi outside China.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#385

Post by kasey_junk »

athrowaway3z wrote: post #35

Would this also mean we can get a EuroDollar systems for the Yuan? As in, Deutsche Bank can create loans denominated in Yuan without Chinese central bank control?

A bank can do this already. But it puts them in an awkward position for hedging their currency risk as they can’t be assured that they’ll be able to cover any shortfalls or invest any surpluses.

I actually don’t know the ends and outs of the pboc clearing rules but to get access to the mainland repo funding and official fx rates you have to be in good standing so direct clearing banks like deutche and J.P. Morgan in practice are more under Chinese control, not less.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#386

Post by SoftTalker »

Danox wrote: post #358
samrus wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia) I dont agree with china having the same position as the FF exporters. Simply because with renewables, you export the means to produce energy rather than the energy itself. So in terms of monetary value, china will be selling alot less panels than the FF countries sell oil. And other countries can also manufa…

China has shown the willingness to develop and use any source of energy. The same cannot be said for the United States. China is now the world leading developer of Thorium Reactors.

Innovator's Dilemma for the US. Any alternatives to fossil fuels impact the big energy companies, who want to preserve their cash cows.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#387

Post by throwaway473825 »

nemomarx wrote: post #223
_heimdall wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll be surprised if renewables overtakes oil for energy production anytime soon. I could see nuclear doing that, but I never can get past the challenges of maintenance and replacement costs for solar panels, turbines, and especially for storage. I will be very happy to be proven wrong here over time though. New battery technology could make a big improvement. And I keep hearing that AI will give us answers to all ou…

Are we using that much oil for energy? The leading non renewable power source now is natural gas or similar, which I didn't think interacted much with the oil market. So even without nuclear, if the future is natural gas pipelines for baseload oil would still be mostly a manufacturing and vehicle fuel deal.

[dead]

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#388

Post by Danox »

mschuster91 wrote: post #158
TacticalCoder wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. The Euro is only 25 years old: it would be pure folly to make the "reserve currency" something that recent. Then... One country of the eurozone already partially defaulted on its public debt (Greece, in 2015). And France is running an insane deficit: so bad that there are no…

> That economist explained how the EUR would lead to "too many secondary houses in Spain" and "too many public servants in France". The part relating to France is the usual small-state BS that has thoroughly corrupted modern "economics". France's problem more is its power generation, they rely on nuclear power, a lot of their fleet is noticeably aged and desperately needs replacement, but such replacement is incredib…

Chinese nuclear power currently, and soon they will have Thorium Nuclear reactor power… China is pursuing all energy avenues. They are even building multiple Hydro electric dams on the Tibetan Plateau.

Amazing what you can do when you’re not policing all over the place of course it doesn’t hurt when other countries want to sub out work too.

https://www.neimagazine.com/news/china-refuels-thorium-react...

https://china-environment-news.net/2025/06/01/world-first-ch...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#389

Post by SoftTalker »

bobthepanda wrote: post #323
thelastgallon wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

This is actually not the first major energy transition. The world moved from coal to oil for transport and shipping fairly quickly due to the higher energy density and significantly easier handling of liquid vs solid fuels. Using pipes and tubes was a huge labor savings compared to having people shovel coal into a hard to control boiler.

Automatic mechanical stokers replaced people with shovels long ago. Nobody has shoveled coal in a boiler room since the era of the Titanic. Oil is still easier to handle in ships (or really any transport) though.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#390

Post by Danox »

chii wrote: post #292
mrtksn wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what’s stopping China from dropping currency controls in a ab afternoon? It’s not like this is some force of nature.

china won't want to drop the advantages of being able to have such tight control over the flow of yuan. Maintaining control over capital flight from china, for example.

Isn’t currency flight out of the country similar to sending jobs out of the country?
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