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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#151

Post by joha4270 »

smalllangmodel wrote: post #51
ForHackernews wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically a more multipolar world has been a more violent and chaotic world, but maybe this time will be better.

Well I wouldn't say it's peaceful now, or has been in the past... Actually there's few years that the US wasn't at war.

The world /is/ peaceful right now... relatively that is.

Not to say there isn't war, but they're small wars with a million deaths being a big one.

More people died in Second World War[1] than in all wars since then combined. If not for the Russian Civil War and WW2, the same would probably true for the Great War.

War is terrible, but the fraction of people who died in wars the last 75 years is substantially smaller than the 75 years before that and I do think that is worth celebrating. I am not confident this will hold for the next 75 years

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#152

Post by jddj »

pjc50 wrote: post #129
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

> In some countries it's well over 50%. China of course being one of them As always with these stats, I like to check whether that includes plug in hybrids, and it does. Those are still mostly dependent on fossil fuels, although they use less. Pure BEV adoption seems to depend on your radius from Norway: https://www.autonergy.co/blog/global-ev-adoption-leaderboard... (France should really be doing better, after all m…

Wow. On mobile Firefox I have to use two fingers to scroll that site.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#153

Post by mschuster91 »

wyre wrote: post #130
codedokode wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

What are you afraid of happening? This is such a perverse and anxious fear imo

A reasonable scenario might be a cyberattack taking down large portions of the grid for a prolonged time. It's not impossible to achieve something like that, Stuxnet proved the concept of corrupting PLCs driving powerplants ages ago.

Alternatively, even outside a cyberwar scenario, bad weather has been shown to take down power grids for entire regions for days, sometimes weeks.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#154

Post by pocksuppet »

curuinor wrote: post #15
ForHackernews wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rising power challenges the fading imperial hegemony. In this case, CNY displacing USD.

CNY displacing USD would entail allowing people outside China to buy really significant quantities of CNY-denominated financial products. This would entail CNY/USD changing so CNY is more expensive, because the default currency for financial products currently existing is USD. Which would slap a corresponding huge price increase with 0 increase in quality to all Chinese export. Which would murder Chinese manufacturin…

Same thing that happened to USD, right? Once the USA stopped having to actually manufacture things to get money, it stopped actually manufacturing things.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#155

Post by pocksuppet »

kachnuv_ocasek wrote: post #41
edgyquant wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans can not “move on” from human nature no matter how much people try to will it

It's as much "human nature" as being a slave was once the nature of some (chosen) peoples.

Being a slave isn't human nature, but wanting to be a slave owner is. "Human nature" is, more often than not, a shorthand for "the parts of game theory that evolution distilled into humans"

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#156

Post by intrasight »

phkahler wrote: post #116
decimalenough wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The yuan will never become a reserve currency as long as China maintain tight currency controls around importing and exporting it. It's very difficult to (legally) send CNY out or China. The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027

>> The yuan will never become a reserve currency as long as China maintain tight currency controls around importing and exporting it. It's very difficult to (legally) send CNY out or China. Did you read the article? It seems that may be changing.

Neither the word "free" nor "float" is present in that article - so I'd say no the article does not discuss that.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#157

Post by bell-cot »

budsniffer952 wrote: post #77
pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

Losing the reserve currency doesn't happen in a vacuum. It happened to the British and Dutch because their empires were dismantled. So, yeah, it could happen to the US, slowly, over time (it already is). But nobody wakes up tomorrow and says they no longer want USD. Where are you parking the money, yuan?

I'm less familiar with Dutch history - but that happened to the British Empire because its situation went from being the world's obvious #1, to barely avoiding national bankruptcy, due to the staggering costs of WWI and WWII.

The bailout, July '46 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loan

Loss of India (the empire's real money tree), August '47 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India

FWIW, "dismantled" generally implies a personal outside actor, with the intention and power to take things apart. Vs. the British Empire crumbled mostly because Britain's & Europe's relative power / prestige / image, post-WWII, were just smouldering ashes of what they'd been before WWI. That had obvious feedback loops with ambitious "native" leaders, nationalistic memes, and the just-won "moral crusade" to liberate Europe from evil Fascist occupation.

EDIT: The post-WWII revelations & condemnations of Nazi atrocities, plus how well the "yellow" Japanese had done against European/"white" powers, were pretty much fatal to (then prevalent) meme of white people enjoying "natural" moral and military superiority over non-whites. Which meme was an important foundation stone of most of the Empires which crumbled in the decades after WWII.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#158

Post by mschuster91 »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #138
decimalenough wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The yuan will never become a reserve currency as long as China maintain tight currency controls around importing and exporting it. It's very difficult to (legally) send CNY out or China. The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027

> The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. The Euro is only 25 years old: it would be pure folly to make the "reserve currency" something that recent. Then... One country of the eurozone already partially defaulted on its public debt (Greece, in 2015). And France is running an insane deficit: so bad that there are no…

> That economist explained how the EUR would lead to "too many secondary houses in Spain" and "too many public servants in France".

The part relating to France is the usual small-state BS that has thoroughly corrupted modern "economics". France's problem more is its power generation, they rely on nuclear power, a lot of their fleet is noticeably aged and desperately needs replacement, but such replacement is incredibly expensive. On top of that, French military expenditure is ridiculous, they still dream of being an empire, maintain nuclear weapons and aircraft carriers, that make sharing vessels or aircraft with other European countries a pain - as evidenced by FCAS collapsing, the French wanted to use us Germans as paypigs for their pet project suited to carrier deployments.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#159

Post by OutOfHere »

SanjayMehta wrote: post #58
matheusmoreira wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is not that different.

The US is infinitely worse, at least China is predictable.

You don't know the meaning of the words. Ask the Philippines how unpredictable China is in the South China sea.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#160

Post by tgv »

baggachipz wrote: post #13
DC-3 wrote: post #7

What does that mean?

It means that nations are beginning to abandon (or at least hedge against) the dollar as the world's currency, due to the host nation's instability and global political situation. "Great Again", indeed.

Idk why you say so, but the Deutsche Bank is not a national bank.
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