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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#311

Post by myrmidon »

edgyquant wrote: post #216
myrmidon wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has a massive demographic problem in the near future (after 2040ish), and it is extremely unlikely (IMO) that it is going to catch up/surpass the US in GDP per capita within the next decades. But its relative GDP growth has been higher than the US for decades, is higher stil and is probably going to stay higher for years: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?country=U...

But the gap between the us and China in terms of GDP has widened in recent years making it look like China will never surpass the us

Never surpass in what exactly?

If you look at absolute numbers (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-worldbank-constant-us...), it seems likely that China will surpass the US economy pretty soon (they're a lot more people though, so per-capita is much worse).

Personally I think its most likely that chinese GDP will be larger than US GDP within 2035, but that the median citizen is NOT going to catch up to US standards in the next 50 years.

And their whole society will run into the exact same problems that many western countries are dealing with already (increasing fraction of retirees), so I'd be very careful with extrapolating their currently superior growth rate past 2040 or so.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#312

Post by nairboon »

glimshe wrote: post #18
rvz wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It means the dollar is dying.

People have been saying the dollar is dying since the 19th century. They said it again during the Great Depression, the end of Bretton Woods and the 2008 Financial crisis..

Look at a 100 year purchasing power chart of USD, doesn't look very healthy...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#313

Post by toomuchtodo »

soco wrote: post #255
Symbiote wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

25% of oil production is for cars 16% for trucks and buses 7% for aviation 4% for shipping 2% for rail and domestic waterways 25% + a chunk of the 16% (city buses, shorter distance or smaller trucks, etc) is a good amount. https://www.statista.com/statistics/307194/top-oil-consuming...

You mean a good amount of the 46% consumed by road transports. So my napkin says, when we all switch to driving EV the oil demand will drop by 15%. It's something for sure, but not overly dramatic (to me).

Every 24 months of EV production in China destroys 1 million barrels a day of global oil demand, as of this comment, at current rates of EV production. We should expect these rates of production will continue to increase. Total annual light vehicle sales are ~90M units. Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). The world has 20-30M units/year of EV manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. Light vehicles and heavy vehicles are solved for with battery electric, I argue, based on all available data.

Aviation and petrochemical use cases are unlikely to disappear in our lifetimes, but that is a small slice of today's oil demand (lets call it ~15-20% for the sake of argument), and will be the remainder as renewables and batteries eat global energy demand. ~40% of marine shipping disappears when you're not moving energy around the world, the remaining half can burn renewable energy produced ammonia or methanol for fuel. Like bankruptcy, the change happens slowly, and then all of a sudden. China now has more power than OPEC because of the facts in this comment and their vast strategic petroleum reserves.

It is understandable to say "this flywheel is spinning slowly" before it is spinning very fast, while you're watching it spool.

How China became the world’s great oil power - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158 - August 2026

Laos went 100% electric vehicles overnight with a drastic approach [Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49040819 - July 2026

Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026

Norway EV sales and related data - https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/

Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026

Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023

Almost 40% Of All Ship Cargoes Are Oil, Coal And Gas - https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... - January 12th, 2022

https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#314

Post by somenameforme »

nradov wrote: post #294
somenameforme wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prior to Bretton Woods countries were well aware that no single country could be entrusted with the power granted in being the global reserve currency. It's too much power that's too tempting to abuse. But they also learned from the collapse of Bretton Woods that even orchestrated agreements with built-in penalties just don't work, because countries can simply ignore them when beneficial. So I think we're headed to a…

No country is accumulating more than token amounts of gold. There just isn't much physical gold available relative to the size of the world economy.

The amount of money in the world is also minuscule relative to the size of the world economy. Such is the nature of widescale financialization that the market capitalization of various financial assets greatly exceeds the amount of money in the world. When you think about it, it sometimes makes you wonder if people will look back at this time with some degree of bemusement. I mean it's easy to understand how, and even why, we ended up here. But it's still a nonsensical place to be nonetheless.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#315

Post by nairboon »

blahblaher wrote: post #68
lenerdenator wrote: post #55

Ah, yes, the best way to react to increased authoritarianism in the US is to checks notes begin doing more business with a country that is the final word in authoritarianism.

the big difference is that China is not bombing anyone, and causing chaos to it's allies..

Or threatening to invade it's allies.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#316

Post by FpUser »

soco wrote: post #207
thelastgallon wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

But, how much of the extracted oil becomes ICE fuel? Because other transports cannot be converted that quick (air, sea...) and most if not all petrochemical industries will still need to exist even if all cars drive electric. So how big will be the effect of crashing fuel demand?

I would add energy generation to ICE fuel. This is about 84-86% of total I believe

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#317

Post by FpUser »

nradov wrote: post #289
chaostheory wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs don’t need renewables. What makes them attractive despite the bad marketing in the West is that they can be powered by anything that can create electricity, like coal; which is something China has a lot of The transition to EVs is key to the national security of many countries that currently do not have energy security like China and even most if not all member countries in the EU.

China doesn't have a lot of coal, at least not relevant to their energy requirements. They still have to import a huge amount and remain vulnerable from an energy security perspective. https://www.iea.org/countries/china/coal

>"remain vulnerable from an energy security perspective" - not while having Russia close by.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#318

Post by [deleted] »

blahblaher wrote: post #68
lenerdenator wrote: post #55

Ah, yes, the best way to react to increased authoritarianism in the US is to checks notes begin doing more business with a country that is the final word in authoritarianism.

the big difference is that China is not bombing anyone, and causing chaos to it's allies..

[deleted]

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#319

Post by FpUser »

nemomarx wrote: post #225
codedokode wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gasoline is much easier to store (you can keep a reserve in your cellar) and much easier to carry and trade than electricity.

Do you keep gasoline in your cellar? my understanding is that it goes bad relatively fast, so be careful to keep cycling it yearly at least.

It did last 3 years in my lawnmower. Well it is gone now since I switched it to electric.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#320

Post by eunos »

OutOfHere wrote: post #159
SanjayMehta wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is infinitely worse, at least China is predictable.

You don't know the meaning of the words. Ask the Philippines how unpredictable China is in the South China sea.

China is predictable. See how it was smoother during Du30
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