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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#221

Post by _DeadFred_ »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #170
thelastgallon wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at ~$86.60/barrel to balance their budget, per Bloomberg. It is not the marginal cost to pump a barrel, but what a country needs to support their sticky spending from previously assured energy exports. Governments will collapse long before we approach low single digit oil prices on the global market. The World Is Awash With Oil and Prices Are Poised to Keep Falling - https://www.bloomber…

But China is already in decline before reaching this ascendancy.

I think new models will result in new structures, not just a switch from the US to China.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#222

Post by dyauspitr »

thelastgallon wrote: post #194
pjc50 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In some countries it's well over 50%. China of course being one of them As always with these stats, I like to check whether that includes plug in hybrids, and it does. Those are still mostly dependent on fossil fuels, although they use less. Pure BEV adoption seems to depend on your radius from Norway: https://www.autonergy.co/blog/global-ev-adoption-leaderboard... (France should really be doing better, after all m…

Thats personal vehicles. But if China is going full speed with electric trucks, that will be the fastest gamechanger. Diesel trucks run 300K miles, under 5mpg, consume a gazillion gallons. Electric truck fuel costs are probably 10%. Its really sad that India is pro fossil fuel, it has an opportunity to follow China's strategy.

I don’t know what you mean by India is pro fossil fuel. It’s aggressively building out solar and has multiple nuclear reactors being simultaneously constructed. It would love to be an electrostate but is doing everything it can to satisfy its populations energy needs in the meantime which means they can’t just stop using coal and oil.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#223

Post by nemomarx »

_heimdall wrote: post #214
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

I'll be surprised if renewables overtakes oil for energy production anytime soon. I could see nuclear doing that, but I never can get past the challenges of maintenance and replacement costs for solar panels, turbines, and especially for storage. I will be very happy to be proven wrong here over time though. New battery technology could make a big improvement. And I keep hearing that AI will give us answers to all ou…

Are we using that much oil for energy? The leading non renewable power source now is natural gas or similar, which I didn't think interacted much with the oil market. So even without nuclear, if the future is natural gas pipelines for baseload oil would still be mostly a manufacturing and vehicle fuel deal.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#224

Post by maxglute »

kanwisher wrote: post #186
maxglute wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USD exorbitant privilege is mostly just exorbitant now that sanction evasion solved problem due to US going ham. Central banks pulling out of treasuries, rates increase selling to institutional vs marginal buyers, USD just terminal debt serving sink hole now. Ironically PRC can now lend out USD from their reserves and trade surplus at better rates than FED... the answer to USD in meantime for PRC is PRC USD, every do…

how could yuan be a reserve currency when its not even legal for its citizens to move it out of the country beyond $50k a year. they have extreme currency controls

[flagged]

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#225

Post by nemomarx »

codedokode wrote: post #205
thelastgallon wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Gasoline is much easier to store (you can keep a reserve in your cellar) and much easier to carry and trade than electricity.

Do you keep gasoline in your cellar? my understanding is that it goes bad relatively fast, so be careful to keep cycling it yearly at least.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#226

Post by surgical_fire »

Markoff wrote: post #166
vrganj wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Western analogy, GBP has similar levels of formality: Reminbi ~= Pound Sterling Yuan ~= Pound Kuai ~= Quid

Is quid really used in UK by 80-90% people? I thought it's very informal slang word (of some lower educated people), in China most of the people just use kuai (well I guess not bank tellers).

> Is quid really used in UK by 80-90% people?

I deal with Brits on a daily basis.

I seldom hear them use the term "pound". Everyone says quid.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#227

Post by hombre_fatal »

codedokode wrote: post #202
mirmor23 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power. this is just nonsense. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou... while traveling i got caught up in this. no restaurants, no credit cards working, no grocery stores, no…

If you used cash as a reasonable person you would not even notice that cards aren't working.

The only place I've been where that might happen is rural mountainous Mexico where the "gas station" is a huachicolero funneling fuel into your car from a plastic water bottle next to a construction paper sign with "GAS" scribbled on it.

Everywhere else, gas stations aren't open if there's no power because nothing works, not even the cash register.

But I'm starting to see the uni freshman libertarian vibes here having been there once myself.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#228

Post by imtringued »

_heimdall wrote: post #214
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

I'll be surprised if renewables overtakes oil for energy production anytime soon. I could see nuclear doing that, but I never can get past the challenges of maintenance and replacement costs for solar panels, turbines, and especially for storage. I will be very happy to be proven wrong here over time though. New battery technology could make a big improvement. And I keep hearing that AI will give us answers to all ou…

Ah yes, nuclear is known for having cheap replacement costs, especially Fukushima was known for being particularly cheap.

Solar power is the worst, it gets more expensive every year.

Regarding batteries... It's over for sodium based batteries (the ones promising us cheap battery storage) because dry coated Lithium ion batteries are coming onto the market which means sodium batteries are an economic dead end.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#229

Post by wbl »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #170
thelastgallon wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at ~$86.60/barrel to balance their budget, per Bloomberg. It is not the marginal cost to pump a barrel, but what a country needs to support their sticky spending from previously assured energy exports. Governments will collapse long before we approach low single digit oil prices on the global market. The World Is Awash With Oil and Prices Are Poised to Keep Falling - https://www.bloomber…

If you buy yuan just to turn around and spend them you aren't holding the yuan.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#230

Post by DrBazza »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #57
pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

I did a lazy ask google, and it thinks less than 3% of crude oil is used for energy. The vast bulk of oil being used: 'transportation (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), heavy machinery, and non-energy uses like asphalt and plastics rather than power plants'.

That is of course, one of the big problems of 'going green' - electricity production is low hanging fruit and understood by the general public.

When that's 'solved' (solar, wind, geo, nuclear), how do we solve the other 97%?

Oil really isn't going anywhere. It will be a slow tail, perhaps too slow to stop emissions.

https://www.iea.org/world/oil

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