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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#101

Post by dist-epoch »

mrtksn wrote: post #61

I have this pet theory that is fueled with ignorance but kind of make sense to me: The correct value of the USD would be adjusted to match the tech company valuations sans AI(Apple can be a good guide IMHO) when they serve 350M people instead of 8B people as AI makes software obsolete and the geopolitics and the US government behavior dismantles any network or lock in effects.

> US government behavior dismantles any network or lock in effects

You should look at where most of the compute of the world is physically located. You might have a shock.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#104

Post by mekdoonggi »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #57
pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

I had never considered the demand destruction effect of EVs on fuel like that. It makes sense though, because the biggest users will justify switching to electric faster because the payoff time is quicker.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#105

Post by TacticalCoder »

cluckindan wrote: post #74

[flagged]

The latest public CIA World Factbook numbers estimated that the percentage linked to crime was 3% to 5% of the world's entire GDP. BTW the CIA should know something about it...

In other words, whether they know it or not, every single bank in the world is involved in money laundering.

P.S: I don't know if that's true or not but some people have made the case that there are, percentage-wise, less transactions linked to crime on the public, transparent, ledgers that are the blockchains than in the real banking system.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#106

Post by westpfelia »

lenerdenator wrote: post #78
blahblaher wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the big difference is that China is not bombing anyone, and causing chaos to it's allies..

> not bombing anyone Not that they wouldn't bomb Taiwan if they thought they could get away with it. The reason they can't, of course, is that doing so carries the risk of starting a thermonuclear war with the United States. > causing chaos to it's [sic] allies... Well, there's two ways to think about this. 1) China doesn't really have allies. They've a long history of pissing off their neighborhood extending back ce…

> Not that they wouldn't bomb Taiwan if they thought they could get away with it.

There is zero evidence of this. The last time China even engaged in a direct military conflict was the 1970s. Where as even before Trump America could have invaded almost any country on the planet. and it wouldnt have been to shocking.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#107

Post by spwa4 »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #85
budsniffer952 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Losing the reserve currency doesn't happen in a vacuum. It happened to the British and Dutch because their empires were dismantled. So, yeah, it could happen to the US, slowly, over time (it already is). But nobody wakes up tomorrow and says they no longer want USD. Where are you parking the money, yuan?

Deutche Bank I imagine is doing this because a significant fraction of their customers literally want to park their money in yuan? If it was some rounding error they wouldn’t have bothered spending money to set it up and get all the clearances.

It seems worth mentioning that this allows DB to allow Yuan transactions to happen, bypassing any US sanctions. Since DB is not doing this without agreement from the German government and the ECB, this can be taken as an indication that they intend to do business with China the US does not approve of. At least, they want the option.

(and yes, it does not mean that the US is entirely without options to hinder China trade, just makes things harder. In this case, a lot harder)

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#108

Post by dragontamer »

WJW wrote: post #70
JimmyBuckets wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Essentially its the idea that the interaction between an incumbent power and rising "challenger" power inevitably leads to war between the two. I was expressing my hope that if this does happen, the war can play out in less destructive arenas - one of which is in the competition for reserve currency status which the US has held for the whole of the modern era. This article possibly points at China's first shots in th…

The obvious counterexample would be the previous most powerful empire in the world (ie the UK) ceding that title to the USA after collapsing after WW2? No war between the UK and the US was needed.

The precious powerful empire (before Britain) was undoubtedly the Spanish Empire.

The Spanish-American war was closer to the USA opportunistically feasting upon the remains of the fallen empire (The British already overtook the Spanish in terms of power).

It's hard to pinpoint the fall of the Spanish Empire. But it's even harder to point out military action between Spain and Britain (undoubtedly the rising star in the next centuries). There is the big war of Spanish Succession but that's more opportunistic and more like a major civil war that spilled out of Spain and across Europe.

Lots of war between Spain, HRR, France and other parties. But strangely not so much with Britain....

---------

In both Spanish and British cases, the real enemy the whole time was just a boatload of debt.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#109

Post by WJW »

JimmyBuckets wrote: post #79
WJW wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious counterexample would be the previous most powerful empire in the world (ie the UK) ceding that title to the USA after collapsing after WW2? No war between the UK and the US was needed.

The UK was a declining power that had been absolutely gutted by war and owed huge debts to the US that it had accrued to fund the war. I believe Thucydides Trap is more about the situation we have now with the US and China where both are moving from strength to strength.

I'm not really seeing the USA moving from strength to strength lately TBH. Iran is a disaster, the Navy now has 3 (or 4, depending how you count) failed warship projects in a row, economic growth outside the AI/datacenter boom has dropped to near zero and the internal political climate is polarized to the point of inactivity. Most of its traditional allies have been moving to distance themselves from the USA and worldwide trust in the USA as "leader of the free world" is at the lowest point in decades.

But quite beyond that, I'm just saying that the Thucydides trap is not an iron rule. The first place I looked was a counterexample and I'm sure there have been many more over the centuries.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#110

Post by dimitrios1 »

pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

And its going to be incredible to watch how many of our own country will be gleefully cheering this on as if the replacement will be better for them.
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