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CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

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Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#51
post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

What? It’s in the first paragraph. > August 11, 2026 > > WASHINGTON — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today exercised its emergency authority in response to KalshiEX, LLC’s notification of a market emergency and ordered the exchange to continue to operate in accordance with the Commodity Exchange Act’s Core Principles. Further, the operative document that this press release is about is titled “ORDER DIRECTIN…

The "order" there is effectively a reset button to the TRO. Its function is to say "you can ignore the TRO and continue business as usual". It doesn't force Kalshi to continue operating if they had their own reasons for pausing operations.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#52
post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

It seems that New York is asking the court for a temporary restraining order that would prohibit Kalshi from offering all event contracts nationwide. I also have zero love for Kalshi, but I can see why such a request would be concerning, regardless of whether I think Kalshi is a degenerate trash heap.

That's not true at all. New York is asking the court to stop the Kalshi executives, who are located in New York, from flagrantly violating the sports gambling laws of New York. Kalshi would be free to move to another state where sports gambling is legal if they wanted to keep the platform up.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#53
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not true? The order was to stop them from operating in the state.

Do you have a source for that? From the release: > In the lawsuit, filed on July 31, New York seeks a temporary restraining order prohibiting KalshiEX, LLC from offering all event contracts nationwide and more than $36 billion in damages.

Lawyer here:

https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/court-filings/new-york...

This is the complaint.

If you go to page 29 you'll see what they requested.

The claim they are trying to prevent them from offering all event contracts nationwide is simply false. The closest anywhere is a claim to enjoin them from violating some federal criminal statutes that they would not be violating if they were not operating in new york illegally (IE do not stop them from operating nationwide).

You can also see their is no specific number on the damages. In fact, the only specific number is the request for Kalshi to pay $2000 in costs to the state of NY.

The CFTC is, understandably, relying on people not bothering to read it and so has put out an "alternate set of facts".

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#54
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? It’s in the first paragraph. > August 11, 2026 > > WASHINGTON — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today exercised its emergency authority in response to KalshiEX, LLC’s notification of a market emergency and ordered the exchange to continue to operate in accordance with the Commodity Exchange Act’s Core Principles. Further, the operative document that this press release is about is titled “ORDER DIRECTIN…

The "order" there is effectively a reset button to the TRO. Its function is to say "you can ignore the TRO and continue business as usual". It doesn't force Kalshi to continue operating if they had their own reasons for pausing operations.

You are simply wrong. The order invokes statutory emergency authority to require markets to operate as before. It’s materially different from cancelling the TRO (which has not been granted)

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#55
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not true? The order was to stop them from operating in the state.

Do you have a source for that? From the release: > In the lawsuit, filed on July 31, New York seeks a temporary restraining order prohibiting KalshiEX, LLC from offering all event contracts nationwide and more than $36 billion in damages.

I mean, the filing?

By letter dated October 24, 2025, the Gaming Commission directed Kalshi to “cease and desist from illegally operating, advertising, promoting, administering, managing, or otherwise making available an unlicensed mobile sports wagering platform in New York State in connection with any sports event.”

https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/court-filings/kalshiex...

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#56
post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

2 is false, actually.

If you read the complaint, the prayer for relief is quite clear that they only are trying to stop them from operating in new york, deliberately offering gambling to new yorkers, etc.

There is no relief requested nationwide.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#57
post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

It seems that New York is asking the court for a temporary restraining order that would prohibit Kalshi from offering all event contracts nationwide. I also have zero love for Kalshi, but I can see why such a request would be concerning, regardless of whether I think Kalshi is a degenerate trash heap.

Except it's false, they aren't requesting such a thing.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#58
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not true? The order was to stop them from operating in the state.

Do you have a source for that? From the release: > In the lawsuit, filed on July 31, New York seeks a temporary restraining order prohibiting KalshiEX, LLC from offering all event contracts nationwide and more than $36 billion in damages.

A sibling comment has provided the source, but I want to separately emphasize that you must unlearn your instincts that the federal government wouldn't lie to you. Most government agencies are under a top-down mandate to tell lies whenever Donald Trump or someone who's bribed him would benefit.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Traditional derivatives can be used to trade the risk that would already exist with or without the existence of the derivatives market. Prediction markets create risk out of thin air.

Do you think insurance markets create risk out of thin air too?

Insurance protects life and property (including future income). Until you wagered $100 on the Knicks winning, none of your property was threatened by them losing.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#60
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the question is whether or not this is damaging to the case that the Kalshi and others could be regulated state by state..

I (unfortunately) think that the NY AG screwed up our opportunity to press that question by aiming nationally. The CFTC got to skip that and just shut down the national TRO. I'd love to see another state push for a state-specific restriction and see how that plays out.

Except they haven't, because they did not request national relief. They requested state-specific relief.
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