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CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

cftc.gov

41–50 of 226 posts

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#41
phenomenal and I want to address snarky comments here

the “states rights” crowd has always used laws passed by Congress, which the CEA has been. other examples such as a Supreme Court overruling itself made a national regulation fall back to the states solely because Congress has not and has never passed a law on the topic, there is insufficient consensus on proposed laws so those topics will remain at the states

in this case, the actual argument is that the case should be heard by the courts at all, and NY wanted to halt operations WHILE it was heard by the courts. CFTC overruled the pre-verdict halting

and finally, the courts of course will likely not result in anything, as the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution is clear that federal law is supreme when there is a conflict, and the CFTC chooses to leverage that

federal government can always choose to ignore a state law, as it does in some markets

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#42
post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

That is not true? The order was to stop them from operating in the state.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#43
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly is the difference between a financial derivatives exchange and a gambling platform? Both involve placing bets on uncertain future outcomes.

Traditional derivatives can be used to trade the risk that would already exist with or without the existence of the derivatives market. Prediction markets create risk out of thin air.

Do you think insurance markets create risk out of thin air too?

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#44
post #18

Just listen to the overwhelming silence from the “states’ rights” crowd.

Most people invoke the "states' rights" platitude when the federal government oversteps on constitutional matters that haven't been specifically legislated. In this case, Congress already passed a law regulating these activities, and it seems pretty clear-cut that Kalshi engages in interstate commerce, so New York will likely lose if this gets to the Supreme Court.

That's not to say I think event prediction markets are good. In fact, I think they should be banned. That doesn't change my analysis of the current situation.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#45
post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

[deleted]

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#46
post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

That is not true? The order was to stop them from operating in the state.

Do you have a source for that? From the release:

> In the lawsuit, filed on July 31, New York seeks a temporary restraining order prohibiting KalshiEX, LLC from offering all event contracts nationwide and more than $36 billion in damages.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#47
post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

What? It’s in the first paragraph.

  > August 11, 2026
  >
  > WASHINGTON — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today exercised its emergency authority in response to KalshiEX, LLC’s notification of a market emergency and ordered the exchange to continue to operate in accordance with the Commodity Exchange Act’s Core Principles.
Further, the operative document that this press release is about is titled “ORDER DIRECTING KALSHI TO CONTINUE EXERCISING DCM FUNCTIONS”: https://www.cftc.gov/media/14471/OGC_MarketEmergencyDeclarat...

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#48
post #13

Firefox says "Error Code: SEC_ERROR_UNKNOWN_ISSUER" for that CFTC link (untrusted certificate issued by Avast in Prague) and won't open the site

The cert I am seeing:

    Testing via IPv4:
    IPv4 (2 address(es)):
    104.18.25.94
    104.18.24.94
      subject   : C=US, ST=District of Columbia, O=Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CN=www.cftc.gov
      issuer    : C=GB, O=Sectigo Limited, CN=Sectigo Public Server Authentication CA OV R36
      SAN       : DNS:www.cftc.gov, DNS:accountcreation.cftc.gov, DNS:cftc.gov, DNS:smartcheck.gov, DNS:whistleblower.gov, DNS:www.smartcheck.gov, DNS:www.whistleblower.gov
      sha1      : 42:AC:E2:34:10:93:10:9B:0E:45:6E:BC:A9:D5:B8:7D:C4:8B:BE:A5
      sha256    : E5:C9:F2:9F:4E:6C:30:51:AA:6B:63:AD:AD:F9:58:A4:E0:3E:7A:32:E9:2C:AB:8D:ED:4F:24:4D:D6:F0:DE:E8
      validity  : Oct 23 00:00:00 2025 GMT -> Nov  1 23:59:59 2026 GMT (81 days left)
      tls       : TLSv1.3 / 
      Verify return code: 0 (ok)
Are you seeing that too? This [1] is the function I am using. Claude's Improved version over my old chicken scratch.

Qualys Results [2] for www.cftc.gov Cloudflare in front of Drupal 11

[1] - https://nochan.net/b/Text-Crap/function_fingerprint2.sh

[2] - https://www.ssllabs.com/ssltest/analyze.html?d=www.cftc.gov&...

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#49
post #20

> said Chairman Michael S. Selig. “Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gaming laws. Ah yes, "derivatives" which are "not intended to fall under gaming laws" such as... *checks Kalshi website* 58 million dollars riding on which team is the 2027 NFL champion. Oh yeah, totally a financial derivative there, not related to gambling at all. *sigh*

ELI5 why it's better for you to place a $10,000 bet that, say, GOOG falls below $300 by February 2028, than to bet the same that the Pats win the Super Bowl? They're both gambling.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#50
This seems correct, even though I think it's unfortunate that these prediction markets are ruining so many people's lives.

> In the lawsuit, filed on July 31, New York seeks a temporary restraining order prohibiting KalshiEX, LLC from offering all event contracts nationwide and more than $36 billion in damages.

This seems naturally the territory of the CFTC. They have exclusive right to regulate futures and derivatives contracts, which Congress handed them. Also, it seems straightforwardly anti-commerce-clause to allow NY to prohibit Kalshi from offering these contracts nationwide.

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