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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#371

Post by j1elo »

rufasterisco wrote: post #367

i feel like 90% of complaints about ram shortages i've read here could be solved by realizing that we mostly update devices for status reasons we would collectively all be better off by being forced to stick to older devices, value software optimized for proper resource management, and learn that instead of reflexively accepting "problems" we can see them as choices enjoy the rat race

I'm ironically using AI to program an extra-lightweight 10-foot UI for an HTPC that's as underpower as one can be, and KDE Plasma BigScreen trashed it hard.

Reason being, a more powerful one would cost more than what I'm willing to pay (and, mostly, for fun and learning, which is priceless)

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#372

Post by SecretDreams »

suncore wrote: post #330
noduerme wrote: post #328

So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…

Not sure there is much actual profit in LLMs. It will be interesting to see promise meet reality, indeed.

The profit is in the stock price rising, not the actual revenue. They need stories to keep the stocks going up.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#373

Post by SecretDreams »

noduerme wrote: post #332
suncore wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure there is much actual profit in LLMs. It will be interesting to see promise meet reality, indeed.

I mean, it's obviously that they think they're going way beyond LLMs to get to something that is profitable, like some ultimate goldmine of intelligence. But if they miss that target by a hair or two, can we buy some of that RAM? I'd like my next MacBook not to cost $10,000.

I'm going to be very pumped when this comes crashing down.

It's going to look a bit like oligarchs subsidizing consumer tech as they try to offload more ram than God could own.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#374

Post by sidewndr46 »

vannevar wrote: post #190
freeone3000 wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is they could charge more. They could. And people would pay it.

The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.

Aren't the advertised prices just a number now? When OpenAI or some other big player comes to buy months worth of production capacity, they aren't doing it at a publicly advertised price.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#375

Post by [deleted] »

EliRivers wrote: post #366
tjwebbnorfolk wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When demand exceeds supply you have two options: make the people who value those goods the highest compete with each other to pay the natural market price for them, or have a lottery with price ceilings. Price ceilings create inefficiency, and they create black markets. In a lottery, the goods are misallocated to a bunch of people who aren't getting the most value out of the goods, creating economic inefficiency. A b…

This all sounds very hypothetical economic universe. In the real world, rich people do buy expensive things and do nothing with them.

[deleted]

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#376

Post by rgmerk »

inigyou wrote: post #108
znpy wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just thought… didn’t Intel start as a memory chip company? Couldn’t intel repurpose some of its fabs (maybe the old ones?) to produce memory? I’m no expert but… seems like an easy win?

You want a bunch of 4 kilobyte DRAM chips with an interface that predates DDR1, for your Commodore 64?

I dunno, a RAM expansion on my Commodore 64 Ultimate might let it open bigger documents in GEOS…

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#377

Post by 1718627440 »

ShinyLeftPad wrote: post #351
docjay wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for taking the time and effort to provide a clear explanation. I’m familiar with supply and demand though. My emphasis was on “must” as a lazy protest against greed being considered a mandatory part of capitalism. Prices don’t have to go up, someone just wants more money. If you happily sell apples for $1 and see a hungry person walking towards you, must you raise the price? I think that basic thought gets…

> If you happily sell apples for $1 and see a hungry person walking towards you, must you raise the price? if you happily sell apples for $1 and now there are VC-funded companies who need a ton of apples to produce some dubious crap and can pay you $5 per. And you are the only company selling apples. what you should do is keep selling $1 apples to retail customers and charge corporations as much as they accept. you i…

The issue with that solution is that in order to sell to retail customers, they sell to other large corporations, which they think are going to sell to retail customers. Guess what happens when they find out, you are charging other corporation higher prices.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#379

Post by 1718627440 »

fn-mote wrote: post #202
vannevar wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.

> The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist I’m confused because this reads like a denial of basic economics. If the price is high enough, the chip will be produced for you. Do you mean because of the production lead time, higher prices won’t result in increased production? Commodities like corn have been managing this for a long time… what’s special…

> I’m confused because this reads like a denial of basic economics. If the price is high enough, the chip will be produced for you.

That's a classic stereotype of what an economic "expert" is going to say, while completely ignoring reality. Just because someone is willing to pay for it, does not mean, that goods just materialize. Sure, a lot of the time someone finds a way, but that is still limited by physical constraints: lack of expertise, lack of needed resources or as in this case simply lack of time.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#380

Post by 1718627440 »

SR2Z wrote: post #251
DannyBee wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corn is heavily subsidized,also has (in the US) federally prvided insurance programs against plunging prices, has paid uselessness(ethanol). Despite all of this corn has caused massive agriculture bankruptcy/takeover when it has failed anyway. So it's more "what's special about corn". It is also fairly hilarious to claim the parent is denying basic economics and then bring up corn as an example of having successfully…

I don't think that anything you said is wrong but I also don't think that memory consumption is going back to the old baseline... well, ever. Memory is just too useful now that you can use it to drive cars and write code.

> Memory is just too useful now that you can use it to drive cars and write code.

You can use the state of the art from 20 years ago for that.

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