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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#291

Post by ChiperSoft »

TZubiri wrote: post #182

So.. memory futures? Sounds like a signal of an efficient and mature market to me, manufacturers sell their stock way beforehand, keep production steady, and wholesalers can hold stock and absorb risk in exchange of profit. Nothing prevents wholesalers from selling their memory or memory futures at a loss, as that is a risk that is justified by equal possibiltiy of the memory appreciating in excess of inflation.

I would not make that investment. All three memory makers are currently facing a US federal lawsuit for cartel price-fixing.

https://www.polygon.com/ram-manufacturers-sued-supply-price-...

SK Hynix's suppliers are also under investigation for anti-trust behavior in South Korea.

https://en.sedaily.com/society/2026/05/29/prosecutors-raid-s...

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#292

Post by haroldp »

__david__ wrote: post #262
haroldp wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yeah but DDR3 was faster then and still is now USB would be the limiter for both.

They obviously did not mean not literal USB, just a standardized connector across DRAM versions/speeds.

Yeah, sure but... if it's real fast, lets connect SSDs to it and have real fast swap. Whatever it is will be limited to the bus speed. And that's gonna be silly compared to RAM speed.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#293

Post by bdcravens »

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #238
pdimitar wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't you just get a MB only for now? What mandates an entire new batch of hardware?

I’ve been pricing out my various options but the notion of replacing a 10 year old motherboard with another 10 year old motherboard is kinda lousy. The PC I replaced when I bought this one was such a huge improvement. My options basically boils down to fixing trash that’s falling apart or a sidegrade at best for the same price as what I bought a beast of a PC for 10 freaking years ago. Depressing.

If it hadn't died, you'd still be running it.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#294

Post by jonhohle »

crote wrote: post #281
docjay wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. I don’t believe scalpers are an issue in B2B; these aren’t concert tickets being sold to the general public. It’s clear you grasp the economic theory as it’s taught, but my comment was meant for you to question it. If someone is hungry you can charge more for food. The market allows and encourages it. But don’t mistake that for “willingness” and…

> If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg. If my 7-year-old computer were to die tomorrow I would've normally replace the entire thing. It has had a good life, the newer generati…

I just did exactly that. I had an old i7 with 64GB of DDR4 that I bought when it was cheap. DDR5 was so expensive I just bought an AM4 and moved the RAM over.

My MacBook is showing its age, though. Hearing that 2027 wont be any better makes me hopeful all the vibe coders can ask for memory efficient implementations to stretch existing hardware a little further.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#295

Post by milch »

kllrnohj wrote: post #268
HaloZero wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does the steam machine compare to building your own?

Building your own is cheaper, although not by a ton. Valve isn't taking a loss on them.

Yeah, just barely, and only if you don't value warranty or build time. I'm also not super sure you could get something together that is somewhat compact like the steam machine and still be cheaper.

I've built two PCs in the last 5 years and both have had parts that were broken from the factory... There is something to be said about being able to hand off troubleshooting and replacement. I had ASRock pointing fingers at everything else to the point where I had swapped out CPU, PSU, and RAM, until they relented and replaced the motherboard (the replacement which is broken again now 5 years later by the way...)

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#296

Post by spoonjim »

cortesoft wrote: post #255
docjay wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why must you increase the price?

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

> The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them.

If there was an Ozempic shortage tomorrow, it's not the morbidly obese people who "really need" it who would be getting it, it would be the Hollywood A-listers who need to drop 4 pounds for their next movie, or the billionaire who's feeling a little tubby. Price is a good allocation system, but it's important to recognize that it's not a mechanism for attaining some kind of ethically "best" allocation.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#298

Post by adastra22 »

vannevar wrote: post #175
bob1029 wrote: post #141

One unit of HBM capacity consumes roughly the wafer capacity that could have produced three units of DDR5 capacity. HBM dies need to be larger than ordinary DRAM dies because of how the final packaging works. > As discussed previously, the ramp of HBM production will constrain industry supply growth in non-HBM products. Industrywide, HBM3E consumes approximately three times the wafer supply as D5 to produce a given n…

>As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI (return on investment) that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth. The problem is that they need actual chips tomorrow. I fear we are reaching the point in the semiconductor industry where, in order t…

We saw this play out in Bitcoin mining years ago.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#300

Post by vannevar »

daishi55 wrote: post #241
vannevar wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.

I don’t understand how there being essentially unlimited demand for their products that far exceeds supply and is driving up prices accordingly is somehow a bad sign for the industry? > Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. You know supply and demand is like a curve right, you can find an optimal equilibrium? It’s not a cliff that you can fall off.

"Demand destruction" doesn't literally mean all demand is destroyed; it refers to the demand curve you reference. But as a sibling commenter notes, real business is rarely as clean as an econ textbook. In the real world, a supplier can contract to supply more units than they can actually produce. Their customers rely on the representation to make other related deals. And of course, the supplier can book the contracted revenue, causing investors to rely on the forward sales. They can't raise the price at that point, it's fixed in the contract. So if it turns out they physically can't deliver when the time comes, some number of the deals have to be blown up, causing related deals to blow up, etc., etc. That is the risk I was referring to.
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