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This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

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Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming your thesis is correct: the war in ukraine is a dead end and the EU should let russia finish what it started (parahpraasing, I apologise if I miss the nuance) Surely that would mean _another_ russian friendly Satellite state that can be used as an invasion point by a resurgent russia? Surely its in the best interest of the EU (and US, because trading partner and sphere of influence) to make sure ukraine wins…

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> Ukraine war isn't a one sided affair

Agreed.

> a perma-militarized frontier state dependent on EU doesn't meet their interests at all.

Also agreed.

I think the point I want to make is that a lot of the EU realise that its far better to have the frontier in eastern ukraine than to have it in eastern Poland , Slovakia, Hungary and romania. Russia isn't going away, its doing what its been doing for the last 150 years, which is waving its dick about in the Steppe and as far south as afganistan/india(delete according to which imperialist bastards you want to aim your ire at) With out ukraine russia wasn't going to stop. Like they blew up a fucking passenger plane, poisoned civilians in the UK and a whole host of other stupid shit. All the things that we as "the west" kinda half arsed in reply.

> a lot of people mistake Ukraine as being part of Europe

I don't see Ukraine as European, its that grey area. in the same way that greece is european, but bulgaria probably isnt (as in its bulgarian, and not seen as part of the Yugoslav tapestry of blood, even though it was ottoman for a loooong time)

I see ukraine in the same way that I see Georgia, a country that has been aggressively brutalised by putin. Its not right that russia can waft in and bomb the living shit out of a country and attempt to ethnically cleanse the place. (before you ask, iraq, Libya and afganistan are in roughly the same ball park) Its also too close to home to have russia fucking with.

I currently work, and have worked with ukrainians off and on for the last ten years(both east and west). So perhaps my view is warped.

> EU itself struggles put up a solid unified front and its members regularly disagree on how to approach Ukraine.

Again agreed. You and I know part of it is standard EU stupidity, and some of it is russian fuckery. then the rest is short sighted economic/political self interest.

I think letting ukraine in the EU would be a mistake, in its present form. Its still adjusting from the last lot to reach full member status.

I'm not american, I'm british and live in London. I think most people in the UK see it as not cricket, and that we should support ukraine, up until the point we have to put soldiers in. But then we don't have an army anymore and we are woefully underprepared.

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#32

Ok so I idd some digging and bloomberg is light on analysis on this one. The graph that got me wondering as to why the price has spiked was the mined/produced tonnes of tungsten from what I can see. I naturally assumed, like the article is hinting, that demand has risen significantly. It appears that china has limited exports and the USA has demanded that military applications needs to be sourced for people they like…

> Demand has apparently increased by about 4%, but that doesn't explain the 10x price jump. The price is set at the margin. Mines in wealthy high regulation countries are incredibly inelastic.

I know that, but given that tungsten demand is ~80-90% civilian, ie depends on how well the economy is doing, a 4% demand increase is pretty within spec.

The bigger thing here is china has restricted export to something like 14 companies. so a supply shock makes much more sense.

The natural question is what is china doing with that spare capacity? is it being used domestically? diverted to some other country? are they just stock piling it? after all they need a load of it for machine tooling.

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#34
post #5

A company local makes mining trucks [1]. At one event I was at I spoke with someone who was tied into the company and they said that when wars happen their business picks up because copper mining starts back up. War apparently needs a lot of copper too. I never looked into it to verify but it seemed like an interesting bit of data. [1] https://gfworldwide.com/

Maybe there are other major uses in war, but the casings and jackets of firearms cartridges are mainly copper. A sibling comment mentions nickel which is the major component of the bullet jacket after copper.

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#38
post #27
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything they seem to be having the opposite effect, entrenching defender's advantages to the point that maps might never change again . (Ok, it's hyperbole, but hopefully you get the point.)

They’ve been quite effective in Ukraine’s counteroffensive probes against Russia. That’s how all those oil refineries keep catching fire. The balance is just continuing to shift away from overwhelming manpower being the deciding factor

These refineries burn but the front line is not shifting.
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