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This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

bloomberg.com

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Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#21

Post by KaiserPro »

Ok so I idd some digging and bloomberg is light on analysis on this one.

The graph that got me wondering as to why the price has spiked was the mined/produced tonnes of tungsten from what I can see.

I naturally assumed, like the article is hinting, that demand has risen significantly.

It appears that china has limited exports and the USA has demanded that military applications needs to be sourced for people they like, rather than china russia and north korea. Demand has apparently increased by about 4%, but that doesn't explain the 10x price jump.

All I know is my carbide tooling is going to cost a shitload more now.

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#22

Post by zuzululu »

KaiserPro wrote: post #19
zuzululu wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Assuming your thesis is correct: the war in ukraine is a dead end and the EU should let russia finish what it started (parahpraasing, I apologise if I miss the nuance) Surely that would mean _another_ russian friendly Satellite state that can be used as an invasion point by a resurgent russia? Surely its in the best interest of the EU (and US, because trading partner and sphere of influence) to make sure ukraine wins…

[flagged]

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#23

Post by infinite_spin »

zuzululu wrote: post #15
anon48293 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it peculiar? Ukraine needs a lot of ammo and the EU is massively ramping up production

[flagged]

> By the time the current build up is done which will take years, Ukraine will not be a sovereign nation at its current rate. For Russia's perspective, a regime change is their ultimate goal, not territory. Once the corridor is secure they are likely to turn to Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania.

All the more reason for the EU to continue supplying Ukraine.

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#24

Post by zdragnar »

Planktonne wrote: post #18

> ...attracting the attention of many players, including the president of the United States. Donald Trump’s sons are collaborating with the family of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on a tungsten project in Kazakhstan, according to the New York Times. The US government is considering supporting the mining venture with federal loans. Fascinating to see how completely normalised this sort of thing has become in the U…

At least in the good ol' days politicians had to set up fake charities and foundations to rake in the dough. Now we've got Biden bragging on air that he was withholding already approved funds for Ukraine back when he was VP unless they stopped investigating Hunter's company, and Trump's kids might be getting loans!

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#25

Post by toyg »

zuzululu wrote: post #17
mcmcmc wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you not believe them? Our defense manufacturing base has withered just like all the other manufacturing sectors. They’re being used faster than they’re being made and no one really planned for this war. Same reason the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is so low.

[flagged]

If anything they seem to be having the opposite effect, entrenching defender's advantages to the point that maps might never change again. (Ok, it's hyperbole, but hopefully you get the point.)

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#26

Post by mcmcmc »

zuzululu wrote: post #17
mcmcmc wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you not believe them? Our defense manufacturing base has withered just like all the other manufacturing sectors. They’re being used faster than they’re being made and no one really planned for this war. Same reason the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is so low.

[flagged]

Hopefully it’s just Crimea returning to Ukraine, but you’re probably right.

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#27

Post by mcmcmc »

toyg wrote: post #25
zuzululu wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If anything they seem to be having the opposite effect, entrenching defender's advantages to the point that maps might never change again . (Ok, it's hyperbole, but hopefully you get the point.)

They’ve been quite effective in Ukraine’s counteroffensive probes against Russia. That’s how all those oil refineries keep catching fire. The balance is just continuing to shift away from overwhelming manpower being the deciding factor

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#28

Post by toyg »

zuzululu wrote: post #15
anon48293 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it peculiar? Ukraine needs a lot of ammo and the EU is massively ramping up production

[flagged]

EU states are providing Ukraine with every resource they can spare without compromising their own defensive stance - which is, understandably, their n.1 priority. In addition, they are ramping up production - largely to satisfy demand on the Ukrainian front rather than their own.

Nobody is perfect, nobody has infinite money to burn, and nobody wants this war to continue - because nobody wanted this war to start with, except Putin; but rhis war only ends if/when Putin decides it's not worth continuing, or when the last Ukrainian soldier dies. EU states have no real say.

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#29

Post by conception »

zdragnar wrote: post #24
Planktonne wrote: post #18

> ...attracting the attention of many players, including the president of the United States. Donald Trump’s sons are collaborating with the family of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on a tungsten project in Kazakhstan, according to the New York Times. The US government is considering supporting the mining venture with federal loans. Fascinating to see how completely normalised this sort of thing has become in the U…

At least in the good ol' days politicians had to set up fake charities and foundations to rake in the dough. Now we've got Biden bragging on air that he was withholding already approved funds for Ukraine back when he was VP unless they stopped investigating Hunter's company, and Trump's kids might be getting loans!

Biden wanted Shokin out because he failed to pursue the Burisma investigation, not because he was aggressive on it. https://www.rferl.org/a/why-was-ukraine-top-prosecutor-fired...

Re: This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

#30

Post by cucumber3732842 »

KaiserPro wrote: post #21

Ok so I idd some digging and bloomberg is light on analysis on this one. The graph that got me wondering as to why the price has spiked was the mined/produced tonnes of tungsten from what I can see. I naturally assumed, like the article is hinting, that demand has risen significantly. It appears that china has limited exports and the USA has demanded that military applications needs to be sourced for people they like…

> Demand has apparently increased by about 4%, but that doesn't explain the 10x price jump.

The price is set at the margin. Mines in wealthy high regulation countries are incredibly inelastic.

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