Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

eco3min.fr

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 173 posts

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#121

Post by missedthecue »

boczez wrote: post #16
dotancohen wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overpopulation is not solved. Many African and Middle Eastern cultures continue to have half a dozen children per wife.

I don’t get this, doesn’t proof of an aging global population imply that overpopulation is solving itself? Also is it really that big of an issue? I’ve only heard bill gates talking about it, not sure what it’s got to do with that geezer tbh

In the same way that a drought solves a flood. Technically yes, but it introduces an equally as dangerous and possibly worse problem.

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#122

Post by arjie »

Buttons840 wrote: post #119
arjie wrote: post #41

I think it’s time to bite the bullet and raise the retirement^W elder benefits eligibility age and peg it to life expectancy at birth minus 15 years or some structure like that. It’s fine that my generation will have to eat the loss - having paid for the past one but not benefiting as much from the coming ones. Some generation has to, and better us than them. As we get better at healthcare and life, we should expect…

> peg it to life expectancy at birth minus 15 years That would lower the retirement age for me. I was born in the mid-80s. I know that was just a suggestion. We could go with something like "life expectancy at birth minus 5 years", which would raise the retirement age for me, but we're basically just admitting that retirement isn't a thing anymore if we do that. Hopefully the wealthiest nation on Earth can do better.…

Ahhh I’m a terrible communicator I meant “the current value of the reported metric life expectancy at birth”.

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#123

Post by geye1234 »

epicureanideal wrote: post #87
geye1234 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, absolutely right. Energy is very easy to produce cleanly (nuclear, and solar is looking better and better). The barriers to doing so are political and financial, not technical. They will be made worse by having an aged-heavy population, which is less innovative, less willing to invest in the future, and less willing to try new things. And it makes a poorer society, obviously. Malthus has been proved wrong at eve…

> Lack of children is about to bite us very, very hard. Could it have an effect like the Black Plague, where labor becomes more expensive?

All things being equal, probably yes.

But remember: the uber-rich are allowing millions to immigrate to the rich world, to prevent precisely this. (I'm not commenting here on whether immigration is a Good Thing or a Bad Thing, simply noting that large-scale immigration brings wages down, and that the low birthrate is consistently stated as its main driver.) Also, remember that paying for all those unproductive old people will consume enormous amounts of wealth, something that didn't apply during the Black Death.

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#124

Post by geye1234 »

Razengan wrote: post #57
geye1234 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, corporations want people without children, since they have more disposable income to spend on the pointless tat they want to sell you, and are willing to work longer hours to make rich people even richer.

Ah but you're forgetting the lucrative Education™ pipeline that conveniently funnels everyone into a lifetime of debt :)

Well usury is another problem entirely :-D

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#125

Post by roysting »

dotancohen wrote: post #14
pmontra wrote: post #11

So a lot of problems will be solved by 2049 (overpopulation) and probably many others will arise (we never had worldwide decreasing demographics.)

Overpopulation is not solved. Many African and Middle Eastern cultures continue to have half a dozen children per wife.

[dead]

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#126

Post by scoofy »

Western society is limping forward with a "yes, but me first" mentality.

We absolutely need an abundance agenda if we want people to have children. Reject the zero-sum investment thesis of NIMBY protectionism. Invest in density, efficiency, and antitrust. This is one of the most openly obvious self-owns in history. It's genuinely absurd.

We are all in this together. Make financial security easy for young people and we'll actually get children.

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#128

Post by HaloZero »

dieselgate wrote: post #104
HaloZero wrote: post #72

If anybody was curious, the states that already had this prior to 2020 are: Maine, Vermont, and Florida Since 2020: Delaware, Hawaii, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia now also qualify. Montana is a bit of a surprise there... so is Oregon for me. Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/older-ad...

I'm from the west coast and oregon has always seemed to have large populations of retirees in the more rural areas. My grandparents considered moving there when I was young. Also seems that oregon has a large "self-selecting" population where folks move there from out-of-state

Yeah, they keep stating how "% counties" also qualify but they're almost all rural sparsely populated counties. Must be a retiree thing or "I grew up here and not leaving" thing.

Florida being on that list made so much sense lol.

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#129

Post by arcrevenant »

scoofy wrote: post #126

Western society is limping forward with a "yes, but me first" mentality. We absolutely need an abundance agenda if we want people to have children. Reject the zero-sum investment thesis of NIMBY protectionism. Invest in density, efficiency, and antitrust. This is one of the most openly obvious self-owns in history. It's genuinely absurd. We are all in this together. Make financial security easy for young people and w…

You’re like we need an abundance

Of stack and packs lol

> We are all in this together.

When’s the last time I heard that one

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#130

Post by toomuchtodo »

pstuart wrote: post #114
baxtr wrote: post #95

Let’s consider this logically: What kind of people will not wanting children likely select for? At least two kinds come to mind: 1) People who love children and are willing to have them regardless of the impact on their financial situation. 2) People living in societies where women (and likely some men) lack a say in whether or not to have children. The first kind could be very good. The second is definitely not some…

If things don't change, those in power in the US will succeed in making the second a reality. There is a "replacement" crisis but it's being addressed by pearl clutching and those advocating for forced birth. Having children is expensive all the way around. And women's reproductive rights have enabled them to (rightfully) make their own choices about motherhood. To state the obvious: children literally are the future…

Based on all available evidence, there is no will to implement or change the necessary policies, nor is it likely there will there be in the next 5-10 years (affordable housing, better working conditions, universal healthcare, robust support systems for parents, etc), locking in the fertility trap trajectory.

Even Scandinavian countries and France, with generous parental benefits, have not materially increased their fertility rates.

At least in the US, protecting agency and autonomy that might be challenged is easily solved with the second amendment for defense, as well as long term and permanent birth control for those who would not like to have any children or more children. The potentially vulnerable reproductive age population shrinks perpetually year after year, continuously reducing potential attack surface.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48733976 (citations)

Post reply on HN