Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

text.npr.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 37 posts

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#21

Post by meric_ »

glaslong wrote: post #17
andai wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, What is this referring to?

Turns out the Spokane wildfire was arson initiated. While Kalshi and PM have bets going on wildfire predictions. I don't think there's a smoking Molotov there yet, but the incentives sure don't seem great! Doesn't seem a huge leap there. Nor does a pissed off janitor who could turn $100 into $1,000 by trashing the wrong samples. Or a bigger player who can turn their $500k into $5M by paying that janitor $1,000.

A janitor doesn't need prediction markets. They could just short the stock (and profit way more that way)

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#24

Post by glaslong »

meric_ wrote: post #21
glaslong wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turns out the Spokane wildfire was arson initiated. While Kalshi and PM have bets going on wildfire predictions. I don't think there's a smoking Molotov there yet, but the incentives sure don't seem great! Doesn't seem a huge leap there. Nor does a pissed off janitor who could turn $100 into $1,000 by trashing the wrong samples. Or a bigger player who can turn their $500k into $5M by paying that janitor $1,000.

A janitor doesn't need prediction markets. They could just short the stock (and profit way more that way)

The janitor doesnt need a prediction market, but that's 100% who Kalshi and PM are currently blasting ads at, because the janitors with $100 to kill are the bag holders that pay the insiders.

At least in general, not for this specific Evil Janitor, who is the rarer unsophisticated-schemer/patsy/insider in my contrived hypothetical.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#25

Post by andersonpico »

gordian-mind wrote: post #16

[flagged]

> A pharmacist, or one of their relatives, openly taking a large position against a trial's success would be far more likely to attract scrutiny than, say, a pharmacist being secretly paid by a competitor to interfere with the trial.

the later would not be affect by betting on clinical trials being allowed or prohibited, so I don't think the comparison proves that this would help

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#26

Post by quickthrowman »

Binary bets on drug approvals for publicly traded biotech companies are no different than going long or short the equity of the biotech company.

The incentive to interfere in drug trials has been around as long as biotech companies have been publicly traded, this changes nothing.

Introducing wildfire prediction markets is an example of something that does not exist and would be reckless and stupid. The stock market already bets on drug trial outcomes.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#27

Post by quickthrowman »

Ekaros wrote: post #3

How is such bets any different than options trading? If one is reasonable I don't see why the other would be that much different.

It’s not, anyone claiming otherwise is arguing from an emotional position, not a rational one.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#28

Post by quickthrowman »

idiotsecant wrote: post #7
Ekaros wrote: post #3

How is such bets any different than options trading? If one is reasonable I don't see why the other would be that much different.

If we bet on where fires will occur and I have empty pockets and a book of matches that's a little different than options trading. As with most terrible behaviors when a few people do it the results to society aren't so bad. When it gains potential for mass application of the same behavior it becomes a crisis.

Biotech stocks for premarket drugs are functionally binary bets on the drug trial itself and have existed for a long time.

Wildfire prediction markets would be incredibly reckless and dangerous.

The two situations are not even close to being the same.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#29

Post by Lord-Jobo »

glaslong wrote: post #2

You know, I didn't expect the Insider Trading Casinos to be quite so brazenly evil. I really thought they'd have wanted to keep a lower profile, and not appear so urgently in need of being regulated or sued out of existence. They even had the template of "Sports Betting" to work from.

They don’t need to keep a low profile, they have the president and his family using their services for enrichment. They are immune from consequence, might as well advertise at maximum and unleash hell for the most gain.

This is why principled ethical behavior MUST be a cornerstone of acceptable behavior above greed. Even if you are washing and selling greed as “financial obligations” “capital interests” or some other corporate bullshit.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#30

Post by tencentshill »

zaik wrote: post #20
tencentshill wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia and Iran are known to hire teenagers online to kill targets in Europe for little money.

I never heard of this. Do we know somebody who was killed this way?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrjyevmv61o

This group has been linked to 35 murders since 2022

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/09/to-build-a-fir...

Post reply on HN