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Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

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Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#11

Post by watwut »

Ekaros wrote: post #3

How is such bets any different than options trading? If one is reasonable I don't see why the other would be that much different.

Options trading is particularly bad example, because the buyer can choose whether they exercise it or not. You can just let the option expire.

But yes, there is portion of "investing" that is actually gambling. That is what Enron did and it threw down the economy. Those gamblers usually loose and we have quite a lot of regulations trying to restrict the impact of that gambling.

And yes, the usual suspect hate those regulations.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#12

Post by DANmode »

glaslong wrote: post #2

You know, I didn't expect the Insider Trading Casinos to be quite so brazenly evil. I really thought they'd have wanted to keep a lower profile, and not appear so urgently in need of being regulated or sued out of existence. They even had the template of "Sports Betting" to work from.

They were already illegal! Why be careful, they know they’ve got the social trend and the regulatory bodies on their sides.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#13

Post by andai »

idiotsecant wrote: post #6
jeffreyames wrote: post #5

[flagged]

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day,

What is this referring to?

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#14

Post by DANmode »

idiotsecant wrote: post #7
Ekaros wrote: post #3

How is such bets any different than options trading? If one is reasonable I don't see why the other would be that much different.

If we bet on where fires will occur and I have empty pockets and a book of matches that's a little different than options trading. As with most terrible behaviors when a few people do it the results to society aren't so bad. When it gains potential for mass application of the same behavior it becomes a crisis.

Unfortunately your example gets a little foggier once you consider options and futures during a period like the one the US is currently in with Iran.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#15

Post by tencentshill »

andai wrote: post #13
idiotsecant wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, What is this referring to?

Russia and Iran are known to hire teenagers online to kill targets in Europe for little money.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#17

Post by glaslong »

andai wrote: post #13
idiotsecant wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, What is this referring to?

Turns out the Spokane wildfire was arson initiated. While Kalshi and PM have bets going on wildfire predictions.

I don't think there's a smoking Molotov there yet, but the incentives sure don't seem great!

Doesn't seem a huge leap there. Nor does a pissed off janitor who could turn $100 into $1,000 by trashing the wrong samples. Or a bigger player who can turn their $500k into $5M by paying that janitor $1,000.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#19

Post by glaslong »

DANmode wrote: post #14
idiotsecant wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we bet on where fires will occur and I have empty pockets and a book of matches that's a little different than options trading. As with most terrible behaviors when a few people do it the results to society aren't so bad. When it gains potential for mass application of the same behavior it becomes a crisis.

Unfortunately your example gets a little foggier once you consider options and futures during a period like the one the US is currently in with Iran.

Like when your buddies trade crude on weekdays but you get to flip the War switch on/off all weekend?

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#20

Post by zaik »

tencentshill wrote: post #15
andai wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, What is this referring to?

Russia and Iran are known to hire teenagers online to kill targets in Europe for little money.

I never heard of this. Do we know somebody who was killed this way?
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